Opportunities and Pathways to a Green Future for All (based on a Chinese Academy of Sciences report of the same title) Choon Fong Shih University Professor and Advisor National University of Singapore University of Chinese Academy of Sciences “Opportunities and Challenges for Methanol as a Global Liquid Energy Carrier” Stanford University, July 31 st – August 1 st 2017
TWO FUTURES Business as Usual Fossilized Sunshine Liquid Sunshine Image credit: Foreign Policy, the Global Magazine of News and Ideas, May 31 st 2017 2
Business as Usual or Green Future? Common man solution for our common destiny 100 CO 2 emissions abatement by Non‐OECD CO 2 emissions abatement by Non‐OECD 95GT/year 95GT/year countries is key to our Green Future countries is key to our Green Future by 2100 by 2100 60 Annual CO 2 Emissions from 50 Energy Use Today GigaTonnes CO 2 /year 40 30 Non‐OECD CO 2 emissions abatement by OECD 20 countries alone make little difference 10 OECD ‐ 2050 2100 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 OECD Non‐OECD Business as Usual Liquid Sunshine Sources: Data from ‘BP Statistical Review 2016’ for data up to 2015. Optimistic target based on abating about 2.5 trillion tons of CO 2 over the next 80 years, vis‐à‐vis Business as Usual. 3
Pathways to Sustainable Green Future ‐ + + ‐ H 2 Hybrid Systems Liquid Sunshine Fossilized Sunshine 1G – 2G 3G – 4G 5G & beyond Clean Methanol Green Methanol Fossil Methanol Today 2020 2040 2050 2070 Hybrid First Mass Systems Deployment Deployment Liquid First Mass Sunshine Deployment Deployment 4
Energy is Humankind’s Biggest Challenge! Three Existential Threats “Inexhaustible “Inexhaustible Renewables Renewables Sunshine” Sunshine” Oil Oil 100 more years “Fossilized “Fossilized Sunshine” Sunshine” Coal Coal 150 more years Wood Wood 1720 1870 2020 2050 2200 World Pop. 0.6 B 1.3 B 7.6 B >9 B ?? Three Existential Threats 1 2 3 Climate change Environment degradation Depleting fossil fuels 5
Rising Pollution & Population Plummeting Resources OECD Countries Non‐OECD Countries Local Environment 15.2 15.2 44.1 44.1 Degradation 1 : 3 PM2.5 PM2.5 μg/m 3 μg/m 3 6
Gas Oil Plentiful Sunshine! Saudi Can Saudi Arabia export Arabia sunshine to every corner of the World? HOW? 7
Sunshine is Vast Inexhaustible Resource 1 hour of Sunshine > 1 year of global energy needs 1 hour of Sunshine > 1 year of global energy needs Challenge: Turning Sunshine into an energy commodity distributable worldwide 8
Common Man Solution for Our Common Destiny The WORLD’s What are the ways fossil fuels are to … depleting fast … Harvest Sunshine? Convert & Store? Environmental Impact? Transport & What can we learn Distribute? from nature? 9
Designing Energy Carrier & System Inspired by Nature Ecologically Balanced Cycle Plentiful Recycle Sunshine CO 2 CO 2 Energy Transporter CO 2 + H 2 O* H 2 O H 2 O Harvest Conversion Utilization & Storage Energy Pathway Distribution example stable chemical form liquid‐ based systems * CO 2 and H 2 O are nature’s energy transport agents that bind and store the sun’s energy in chemical form; they are recycled to the environment when the chemical energy is utilized 10
Fossil Fuel-based Energy System Extracting fossil fuels and dumping CO 2 and pollutants into atmosphere Atmospheric Dump Organic & CO 2 & Inorganic Pollutants Matter Fossil Fuels Conversion Utilization & Storage Distribution From the bowels of Depleting Fossil the Earth Fuel Reservoir 11
Battery-based Energy System Extracting lithium, etc., and dumping battery waste into landfills Plentiful Sunshine Material Harvest Pathway Energy Transporter Batteries Conversion Utilization & Storage Distribution From the To the land bowels of of the Living Battery Depleting Factory the Earth Earth Mineral Mines Battery Dump 12
Comparing Carriers of Green Energy Liquids are Optimal Medium to Store and Transport Energy Energy Electro‐ Solid Liquid Gaseous Observations chemical † Physical State • Liquids are optimal for Battery/ Energy Carrier Biomass Alcohols Hydrogen storing and transporting Electricity energy • E.g. Natural gas is turned Energy Density into LNG for shipping globally Storage Costs • Alcohols are stable Transport energy‐dense medium Costs* for storing electricity and hydrogen at Environmental ambient conditions Impact^ Good Bad Bad/Poor * Long distance transportation/shipping > 5,000km ^ Includes pollution from production, use, and disposal † Electricity must be used as it is generated or converted immediately into storable forms, e.g. electrochemical energy stored by batteries 13
Reservoirs Enable Man to Control and Manage Nature’s Intermittent Resources Catchment Rainwater Reservoir Rain Beyond Once stored in reservoirs, resource can be distributed humankind’s and drawn on demand within the control of humankind control Energy Reservoir Sunshine & Wind 14
Energy Carriers – Sweet-Spot Uncompressed Highly Compressed Sw eet-Spot Relative Energy Density by Weight high energy density Gas* Gas* by weight & volume *Excluding weight of heavy gas tanks Liquid † Directional target of Solid preferred energy carriers Batteries Redox flow Li‐ion Relative Energy Density by Volume † Liquids occupy the energy density sweet spot; they are also stable, easy to store, transport, distribute. Methanol has, on a volume basis, 40% more H 2 than liquid hydrogen at ‐253 o C, and 140% more H 2 than compressed hydrogen at 700 bars. 15
Battery, Hydrogen & Alcohol Energy Reservoirs Reservoir size for 3 hours storage of global energy needs in 2050 5.6x Height of Mt. Everest How Large? How Heavy? ~30x Stacked on top Weight in of a 7,140 m 2 thousands of football field Airbus A380s 3x 1.7x ~10x 0.3x ~1.5x 60 Li‐ion Compressed Compressed Alcohol Li‐ion Compressed Compressed Alcohol Batteries Hydrogen Hydrogen Fuels Batteries Hydrogen Hydrogen Fuels at 700 bars at 200 bars at 700 bars at 200 bars Li‐ion batteries: 12 mil tonnes of Lithium (86% of world’s reserves) required upfront, 10‐15% add‐on per year; massive hazardous waste Compressed H 2 : Very small molecule and prone to leakage; large‐scale storage of compressed hydrogen could pose serious safety risks Alcohol fuels: Alcohol fuels such as methanol and ethanol have high energy density by weight and by volume 16
Battery, Hydrogen and Methanol Estimated cost of distribution infrastructure Distribution: Wholesale to End-Users Infrastructure Costs* Methanol^ Retrofit $10‐15 trucks, tanks and pumps billion Hydrogen CFRP Tanks 300x for transport, storage Still Waiting… Battery 100x Grid upgrades, new charging stations * Estimated upfront infrastructure costs, assuming 200 cars per 1000 people, for China, in the next decade ^ Methanol is the simplest and easiest target of green liquid fuels 17
Energy Carriers/Sources – Key Pollutants Storage, Major Pollutants CO 2 Resource Structure and Constituents Shipping, (NO X , SO X , PM) Distribution Complex mixture of organic and NO X 100 Semi inorganic compounds, heavy 100 SO X Coal 100 metals. Various coal grades have Global 100 PM differing nitrogen & sulfur content. Complex mixture of compounds, 93 NO X Fossilized consisting primarily of C 5 to C 70 76 Global 100 SO X Crude Oil Sunshine hydrocarbons. Sulfur content varies PM 60 greatly. NO X 69 Predominantly CH 4 . Some C 2 H 6 and 40 Regional SO X Natural Gas 2 other light hydrocarbons. PM 3 NO X 34 Methanol* 45 SO X Global 0 Simplest alcohol fuel, CH 4 O (C1 Alcohol) PM 0 70 NO X Hydrogen is gaseous above ‐253 O C. Inorganic Highly 0 Hydrogen SO X It is liquefied or pressurized to 700 0 Restricted Gas bars for storage purposes. PM 0 *These data would also apply to ethanol, a C2 primary alcohol. Methanol and Ethanol occupy the sweet spot of being both clean and easy to store, ship and distribute. Estimated data based on (i) empirical results for power generation per unit output and (ii) emissions standards for boilers 18
Fossil-based Electricity and Oil Shaped today’s world, but not much longer Appliances & Lighting & Materials & Transportation Gadgets Heating Chemicals Industrial Residential Commercial Electricity & Oil together meet all energy needs Clean at point of use High energy density of today’s Instant, on‐demand power Feedstock for materials society Versatile with many applications Stable, storable and transportable Looming threats of fossil‐based energy: Environmental Impact, Depleting Resources 19
Green Electricity and Green Liquids Electricity Liquids Surplus Power Surplus Power instant multipurpose versatile, easy to power & no emissions store & ship with at point of use global reach Green Grid storage Liquid storage Synergistic Dual Energy System Regenerate Electricity Regenerate Electricity Light / AC Light / AC Appliances Appliances Mobile gadgets Mobile gadgets Transportation Transportation Machinery Machinery Materials Materials Can leverage existing extensive energy infrastructure 20
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