North Texas Regional P-16 Council December 2018
A Cohesive Partnership Helping Drive Equitable Outcomes Across the Region Dedicated backbone providing data insights and collective action toward high impact work streams 3 rd Grade 8 th Grade Pre-K College Readiness Postsecondary Postsecondary Enrollment Reading Science Enrollment Completion 190+ Organizations within umbrella partnership supported by ~28 FTE backbone staff and governed by board of major foundations and community/business leaders that identifies highest impact levers for community focus 4 th Grade Math Kindergarten High School Postsecondary Algebra I Readiness Graduation Persistence (Early Childhood) (Educator pipelines) (Post-secondary access/completion) TRUE NORTH GOAL: 60% Of Adults Ages 25-34 Have a Postsecondary Credential by 2030 2
Compared to the U.S., Texas has a large student population with generally higher proportions of economically-disadvantaged and ELL students 5.4 Million Students (10% of Nationwide K-12 Enrollment) 59% Economically Disadvantaged (12 th Highest State in the U.S.; TX educates 1 out of every 8 Econ. Disadvantaged Students in U.S.) 19% English-Language-Learners (2 nd Highest State in the Nation) = 1 million students Texas Education Agency, 2016-17 Texas Academic Performance Reports 3
Since 2007, student growth in Texas has largely been among economically- disadvantaged and Hispanic student populations Change in Texas Public PK-12 Student Enrollment, From 2007 to 2017 1,000 +770k students 800 Students (in thousands) +680k +610k 79% of K- 88% of K- 600 12 Growth 12 Growth in Low in Hispanic Income Students 400 Students +160k 200 +70k +13k 0 All students EcoDis Not EcoDis Hispanic Black White/Other Change +17% +24% +12% +4% +32% +12% Since ’07 Source: Demographic data: TEA TAPR 2007 and 2017 reports; PS completion: THECB 8 th Grade Cohort Study, 2016 report 4 (1) Postsecondary Completion rates are calculated as a percent of HS graduates
Troubling outcomes resulting from relationship of our spending relative to our growing student challenges, particularly in literacy Texas: 43 rd out of 50 states In Per Pupil Public Education Spending 2017 ”Nation’s Report Card” (NAEP) TX Rankings 46/50 in 4 th Grade Reading 19/50 in 4 th Grade Math 41/50 in 8 th Grade Reading 24/50 in 8 th Grade Math EdWeek, Quality Counts 2018 Report 5 National Center for Education Statistics, 2017 NAEP Results
Where We Stand Today: Texas’ Education/Workforce Pipeline ~201,000 (72%) of High School Grads Don’t Complete P.S. Credential in 6 Years Establish a Build a solid Equip for the Support to and through post- starting line early foundation future secondary completion 90% 73% 58% 50% 47% 45% 44% 41% 28% 16% 3 and 4-yr-olds Kinder 3 rd 4 th 8 th Algebra I 3 College High Postsec. Postsec. enrolled in Ready 2 Reading 3 Math 3 Reading 3 Ready 4 School Enrollment Completion district Pre-K 1 Grad 5 (of HS (of HS grads) 6 grads) 7 Change Since 2016 +1% -1% +2% +6% +0% +3% -1% +1% +0% +1% Change Since 2012 -2% n/a +6% +14% +4% +11% -1% +3% +2% +2% Students Not Meeting Benchmark in 2017 321,305 113,380 228,140 221,343 199,974 214,676 272,064 36,411 75,844 201,378 Source: Commit Partnership 3/19/18 testimony to Outcomes working group (1) Pre-K Enrollment: Percent of 3- and 4-year-olds enrolled in district Pre-K programs. Texas Education Agency (TEA) – Texas Public Education Information Report (TPEIR) – Texas Pre-Kindergarten Report; (2) Kindergarten Readiness: The percent of students deemed Kindergarten Ready based on assessments given by districts at the beginning of the year to Kindergarteners; (3) STAAR indicators: Achievement levels represent percentage of students achieving “meets grade level” standard on 2017 STAAR exams. (4) College ready: The percent of HS grads who took the SAT or ACT and scored at least a 24 on the ACT or 1110 on the SAT (reading and math) – TEA TAPR 2017. (5) Graduation rate: the percent of the 9 th grade cohort from 2012 – 2013 school year that graduated four years later in 2016. Texas Education Agency: – 2016-2017 Accountability System – 4 year Federal Graduation Rate; (6) College enrollment: The percent of 2010 HS graduates who enrolled in a TX postsecondary institution; THECB 8 th 6 Grade Cohort 2016 report; (7) College completion: The percent of 2010 HS grads who earned a PS degree/certification within 6 years of HS graduation; THECB 8 th Grade Cohort Study, 2016 report
Roughly $200 Billion Dollars Foregone by Each Texas H.S. Class by not Obtaining Postsecondary Credentials Estimated Lifetime Earnings by Education Level, H.S. class of 2010 Texas $3 M $2.5 M Within each Texas H.S. Gap: graduating class, ~$1 Million in students subsequently $2 M Lifetime not earning a $1.5 M Earnings postsecondary credential lose up to $1 M ~ $200 Billion in future lifetime earnings (equal to 1/8 th of Texas $1.6 trillion GDP ) $0 M Completes P.S. Does Not Complete P.S. Credential Credential # students, 2010 HS cohort 79,142 201,378 Source: The Commit Partnership, Median earnings found and adjusted for inflation (2017 Dollars) in U.S. Census, American Community Survey Briefs, “Work-life Earnings by Field of Degree and Occupation for People with a Bachelor’s Degree: 2011”; PS attainment numbers estimated using the THECB Higher Education Attainment report, HS grad classes ‘08-’10 7
Other Costs of Undereducated Workforce Beyond Lost GDP Unemployment, Uninsured Medical, and Incarceration Uninsured Medical: 2 Incarceration: 3 Skills Mismatch: 1 ~ $6.0 bn ~ 147,000 ~ 300,000 inmates costing unfilled jobs per Texas 11 annual cost to Texas ~$3.2bn Workforce Commission vs. for people without the ~544,000 annually ($22,000 per health benefits typically inmate), or 2x what we associated with living wage unemployed Texans spend on K-12 student jobs Source: (1) Texas Workforce Commission, 2017, (2) Anne Dunkelberg Presentation, Outcomes Working Group 5/29/18, (3) Texas Dept. of Criminal Justice, 2016. 8
Why Focus on Dollar Incentives? Current Outcomes Impacted by Poverty…But Very Wide Variations in Outcomes Among Districts with Similar Demographics Show That Strategies, Priorities and Resource Allocations Can Matter Greatly 2017 STAAR “Meets Grade Level” Rates by District: All Grades, All Subjects Proficiency ProfIciency Gap 100% at Meets for at Meets for Between Highest Perf. Lowest Perf. Highest and Small Medium Large ISD/Charter ISD/Charter Lowest 2017 STAAR “Meets” %: all grades, all subjects 80% All 62% 87% 25% Students 60% Cypress-Fairbanks ISD Non-Low 59% 87% 28% Income Students Northside ISD 40% Houston ISD Low Dallas ISD 31% 52% 21% Income Fort Worth ISD Students 20% English 35% 40% 5% Language Learners 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2017 District Economic Disadvantage, % Source: Commit Partnership 3/19/18 testimony to Outcomes working group, STAAR performance: 2017 TEA STAAR report; District student EcoDis: 2017 TEA TAPR report 9
Evaluating Dallas ISD Progress and Strategies Key strategies implemented by Dallas ISD have contributed to strong achievement growth almost 2x the state’s improvement Early College and P-Tech Full-Day Pre-K 50% Initiative Launched District Mandated by 47% Wide Board Policy as Budget 40% 40% 39% Priority 30% 27% 13pp gain in Teacher Dallas ISD, vs 20% Evaluation 8pp gain for State System Accelerating despite 1.5x Implemented Campus Excellence Principal 10% higher poverty (“ACE”) Evaluation System Implemented Implemented 0% 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 % of DISD Students Meeting State Std. % of State Students Meeting State Std. Source: 2018 TEA Accountability Ratings. 10
Evaluating Dallas ISD Progress and Strategies Dallas ISD has much higher proportions of low-income and ELL students, yet has seen tremendous improvement over past 4 years IR Students IR 88% as % of Year Campuses Total Enroll. 43 19% 2013-14 59% 44% 37 2014-15 22 2015-16 19% 13 2016-17 State Dallas ISD State Dallas ISD 1.5x Greater Economically- 2.3x Greater English- 4 1% 2017-18 Disadvantaged % Language-Learners % 11
School Finance in Texas
Imagine Texas School Funding As a Glass of Water Glass Size Determined by Relative Need According to Formulas; State Fills Balance Not Filled by Local M&O Taxes and Recaptures Excess RECAPTURE RECAPTURE (Determined by Wealth (Determined by Wealth and Adj. Enrollment – and Adj. Enrollment – “Robin Hood”) “Robin Hood”) STATE PORTION (Fills in Balance) Basic Allotment of $5,140 Targeted Funding For a School District LOCAL M&O LOCAL M&O Adjusted For: TAXES TAXES LOCAL TAXES (Determined by (Determined by LOCAL M&O • Demographics (Determined by Values and Rate) Values and Rate) TAXES • Cost of Living • Size Efficiencies Values and Rate) (Determined by • Geographic Span Values and Rate) 13
If unaddressed, recapture will become an even larger burden over a growing number of Chapter 41 school districts over the next 5 years Actual and Projected Recapture Collections, 1994 to 2023 The $2.5B that the state collects in recapture payments from Chapter 41 school districts is projected to more than double in just five years, up to $6B by 2023 under the current school finance system. 14
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