www.nigerdeltabudget.org Outline MTEF Projections for FGNs 2019 to - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

NDEBUMOG’S PRESENTATION FOR CSJ’S 2019 BUDGET SUMMIT , ABUJA, 5 TH -6 TH MARCH, 2019 By: Dr. George-Hill Anthony Executive Director/CEO Niger Delta Budget Monitoring Group www.nigerdeltabudget.org

Outline • MTEF Projections for FGN’s 2019 to 2021 Budget • Distinct Summary of FGN’s 2019 Budget Proposal • Non Oil Revenue Projections 2019 (MTEF) • Other Federally Funded Upstream Projects • Projection of Oil Revenues 2018 -2021 (MTEF) • Recurrent (Non-Debt) FY 18 and MTEF 2019-2021 • Graphical Analysis of 2017 Appropriation Act (Environment) • Graphical Analysis of 2017 Appropriation Act (Min of Niger Delta) • Sectoral budgetary trend (Niger Delta and Environment) 2017, 2018 and 2019 proposal. • Environment and Niger Delta Envelope (Capital) 2019 • Non Oil Revenue Projection 2019 (MTEF) • Related Allocations for the Niger Delta, etc • Comparative analysis for some line items on environment 2017-2018 • Some Fed Ministry of Environment Proposed Line Items for 2019 • Climate change as a time-bomb • Niger Delta’s development conundrum • Our concerns • Recommendations (Niger Delta) • Recommendations (Environment) • Conclusion

MTEF Projections for FGN’s 2019 to 2012 Budget MTEF PROJECTIONS FOR FGN BUDGET 2019-2021 7,165,869,994,451 2018 Budget (As Passed) 6,961,500,917,208 2,998,862,437,251 3,886,826,300,613 31,247,078,652 1,170,985,667 37,582,922,472 1,384,931,578,205 1,469,466,808 794,688,449,303 2,016,943,284,244 1,290,442,726,235 207,512,890,147 324,859,497,742 273,688,604,246 57,870,741,012 358,197,959,172 94,613,994,592 2021 Proj. 2019 Proj. 6,966,989,049,631 3,688,282,600,552 6,091,274,668,042 39,889,887,640 3,331,045,693,399 1,288,084,234 37,536,384,270 1,385,541,128,141 1,375,443,767 799,517,317,863 1,809,253,848,038 229,339,263,648 1,142,851,778,618 302,551,098,964 250,244,316,670 2020 Proj. 54,133,447,666 329,201,132,104 AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET 86,956,620,646 AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET Share of Oil Revenue AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET Share of Dividend (NLNG) AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET Share of Minerals & Mining AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET Share of Non-Oil AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET Share of CIT AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET Share of VAT AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET Share of Customs AMOUNT AVAILABLE FOR FGN BUDGET Share of Federation Acct. Levies

Distinct Summary of FGN’s 2019 Budget Proposal DIstinct Summary of FGN's 2019 Budget Proposal 021 MAIN ENVELOP - PERSONNEL 1,378,788,677,233 2,287,987,405,933 022 MAIN ENVELOP - OVERHEAD 023 CRF CHARGES - PENSIONS AND GRATITUTIES 024 CRF CHARGES - SERVICE WIDE VOTES 265,509,285,492 025 CRF CHARGES - CAPITAL SUPPLEMENTATION 324,644,693,748 026 STATUTORY TRANSFERS 2,264,014,113,091 027 DEBT SERVICES 1,160,416,279,596 031 CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT FUND MAIN 492,360,342,965 652,915,780,857

1,731,805,088,710 1,414,410,608,814 Non Oil Revenue Projection 2019 (MTEF) 2018 Budget (As Passed) Tax Amnesty - VAIDS Import Value-Added Tax Corporate Tax 254,912,855,860 44,612,633,903 1,543,994,718,357 2,500,000,000 848,531,734,297 720,229,459,577 594,206,513,619 119,420,651,362 6,602,294,596 128,302,274,720 305,000,000,000 17,868,990,133 1,732,429,578,279 Capital Gains Tax Excise Surcharge on Luxury Items Companies Income Tax 1,474,585,477,415 233,923,000,863 17,641,300,000 NON-OIL REVENUE (MTEF PROJECTION) 1,703,893,330,714 2019 Proj. 2,500,000,000 790,975,327,856 670,958,816,016 603,862,934,414 60,386,293,441 6,709,588,160 120,016,511,840 - 6,279,800,000 Fees Customs NLNG Tax 2,467,498,242,893 2,144,502,451,437 289,927,666,342 12,210,441,587 1,859,436,879,988 2020 Proj. 2,500,000,000 922,830,346,414 730,043,248,207 657,038,923,386 65,703,892,339 7,300,432,482 192,787,098,207 - 20,857,683,527 Special levies (Federation Account) Main Federation Account Stamp Duties 2,782,715,670,520 2,413,016,857,829 332,490,208,288 13,739,318,121 2,033,873,543,494 2021 Proj. 2,500,000,000 1,004,094,510,063 794,330,637,784 714,897,574,005 71,489,757,401 7,943,306,378 209,763,872,279 - 23,469,286,282

Other Federally Funded Upstream Projects Other Federally Funded Upstream Projects 1,573,145,664,852 1,375,348,986,788 535,824,000,000 981,237,245,703 305,000,000,000 981,237,245,703 129,625,000,000 124,623,000,000 585,911,754,297 90,036,000,000 141,215,000,000 30,286,500,000 165,310,000,000 68,250,852,578 165,310,000,000 32,177,500,000 34,190,500,000 6,862,500,000 - 6,862,500,000 - 10,086,350,000 11,248,400,000 61,000,000,000 49,135,500,000 266,048,450,000 61,000,000,000 - 107,878,500,000 61,663,222,500 29,813,401,719 - - 41,478,370,706 915,000,000 41,913,320,454 15,250,000,000 15,250,000,000 14,892,748,443 - - 915,000,000 17,871,298,132 823,500,000 823,500,000 - - 2018 BUDGET (AS PASSED) 2019 PROJ. 2020 PROJ. 2021 PROJ. Other Federally Funded Upstream Projects National Domestic Gas Development Gas Infrastructure Development Brass LNG Gas Supply Projects Frontier Exploration Services (NFES) EGTL Funding Renewable Energy Development (RED) Pipeline Security & Maintenance Cost Nigerian Crude Oil Finger Printing Pre-Export Financing PMS Under-Recovery Crude Oil Pre-Export Inspection Agency Expenses (NESS)

Projection on Oil Revenues 2018 -2021 (MTEF) PROJECTION ON OIL REVENUE (2018-2021) 2018 Budget (As Passed) 2019 Proj. 2020 Proj. 2021 Proj. 2,089,409,934,582 78,767,205,558 518,041,809,913 418,246,689,989 80,241,488,620 468,183,839,964 1,977,287,110,917 320,000,000,000 215,963,033,340 90,841,200,000 670,978,748,837 320,000,000,000 - 5,343,600,000 90,692,728,169 - 320,000,000,000 754,354,229,123 1,590,448,580,635 - 249,065,341,168 - - 320,000,000,000 892,898,748,992 - - 183,000,000,000 503,285,031,797 1,222,759,527,202 380,001,457,865 PROFIT FROM NNPC JV CRUDE MCA CRUDE OIL EF CRUDE OIL & PSC CRUDE OIL PSC CRUDE OIL SC CRUDE OIL & FORWARD SALE CRUDE OIL & OIL & GAS & GAS (PROFIT GAS (PROFIT & GAS (PROFIT & GAS (NEW GAS (PROFIT GAS SALES (PROFIT OIL) OIL) OIL) OIL) TERMS) OIL)

Recurrent (Non-Debt) FY 18 and MTEF 2019-2021 Recurrent (Non- Debt)FY 18 and MTEF 2019-2021 319,533,372,910 TANSFERS OF GOES OPERATING SURPLUS (80% OF WHICH IS IN FG INDEPENDENT REVENUES) 281,110,825,156 359,831,060,380 59,467,445,656 51,844,414,914 BASIC HEALTH CARE FUND (1% OF CRF) 51,219,751,964 65,000,000,000 65,000,000,000 PRESIDENTIAL AMNESTY PROGRAMME 65,000,000,000 65,000,000,000 437,779,538,283 431,766,127,602 OTHER SERVICE WIDE VOTES (INCLUDING GAVI/IMMUNIZATION) 363,050,424,848 300,434,379,448 106,631,974,278 SWV POWER SECTOR REFORM PROGRAMME (TRANSFERS TO NBET) 59,438,777,103 193,339,376,271 151,402,049,347 473,002,144,160 PENSIONS, GRATUITIES & RETIREES BENEFITS 473,002,144,160 504,388,747,211 - 241,950,173,668 - SWV PENSIONS (2018 ONLY) - - 163,218,302,672 163,354,957,010 OVERHEADS (GOES) 159,145,947,296 246,486,583,989 246,486,583,989 OVERHEADS (MDAS) 265,509,285,492 2,522,506,115,010 246,486,583,989 2,402,386,776,200 171,722,828,635 166,434,138,437 PERSONNEL COSTS (GOES) 2,287,987,405,905 160,504,766,016 2,115,467,388,700 PERSONNEL COSTS (MDAS) 4,915,348,305,592 4,690,824,744,571 4,718,039,438,458 RECURRENT (NON-DEBT) 3,512,677,902,076 - 1,000,000,000,000 2,000,000,000,000 3,000,000,000,000 4,000,000,000,000 5,000,000,000,000 6,000,000,000,000 2021 Proj. 2020 Proj. 2019 Proj. 2018 Budget (As Passed)

Graphical Analysis of 2017 Appropriation Act (Environment) Graphycal Analysis of 2017 Appropriation Act. (Environment) 12,479,369,455, 7% 16,108,983,841, 9% 1,886,857,812, 1% 144,222,126,129, 83% Personnel Total Overhead Total Recurrent Total Capital

Graphical Analysis of 2017 Appropriation Act (Min of Niger Delta) Graphical Analysis of 2017 Appropriation Act. (Ministry of Niger Delta) Total 33,692,500,001 Capital Total 1,808,882,365 Recurrent Total 727,089,124 Overhead 1,081,793,241 Personnel

Sectoral (Budgetary) Trend (Niger Delta and Environment) 2017, 2018 and 2019 Proposal-Environment COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENT'S MINISTRY ALLOCATION 2017, 2018 & (PROPOSAL) 2019 40,000,000,000 35,378,408,624 28,588,353,296 35,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 27,127,413,937 25,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 0 Total Allocation 2017 Series1 Total Allocation 2018 Total Allocation 2019 (Proposed)

Sectoral (Budgetary) Trend (Niger Delta and Environment) 2017, 2018 and 2019 Proposal-Niger Delta NIGER DELTA MINISTRY'S APPROPRIATION 2017,2018 AND 2019 PROPOSAL 136,789,195,697 60,223,997,128 35,965,882,366 Total Allocation 2017 Total Allocation 2018 Total Allocation 2019

Environment and Niger Delta Envelope (Capital) 2019 Environment and Niger Delta Envelope (Capital) 2019 45,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 39,400,583,997 35,000,000,000 30,000,000,000 25,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 8,353,238,696 5,000,000,000 0 Niger Delta Environment

Related Allocations for Niger Delta, et al. WITHIN SERVICE WIDE VOTE (2019 PROPOSAL) 100,000,000,000 ZIP Special Intervention 150,000,000,000 Program (Capital) Special Intervention 35,000,000,000 Program (Recurrent) 65,000,000,000 Amnesty