PRESENTING SPONSOR Nicole Maynard Managing Director – Tennessee
PIVOTAL PARTNERS
THE REGION IN 2015
JOINT METRO REGION
POPULATION Population Growth 8% 7.7% 7.5% 7.1% 6.9% 6% 6.1% 5.8% 4% 4.3% 4.1% 2.7% 2.5% 2% 0% 2010-2015 2015-2020 Joint Metro Region Nashville MSA Clarksville MSA Tennessee U.S. Source: U.S. Census and REMI Projections
EMPLOYMENT Workforce Percentage Change (monthly change vs. 12 months prior) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -2% -4% -6% Employment Labor Force Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
RELOCATION AND EXPANSION “Expanding our presence in Nashville was the right business decision for UBS. As a longstanding member of the community, we knew this was a city with the educated, skilled talent capable of helping us grow.” -Wanda Lyle Managing Director, General Manager of Nashville BSC UBS #2 FASTEST-GROWING CITY FOR TECH JOBS Fortune, 2015
WORKFORCE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
LABOR FORCE Labor Force Participation 70% 67.3% 67.0% 64.7% 65% 63.3% 61.4% 60% 55% Joint Metro Region Nashville MSA Clarksville MSA Tennessee U.S. Source: U.S. Census and Bureau of Labor Statistics
UNEMPLOYMENT Unemployment 2005-2015 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nashville MSA Clarksville MSA Tennessee U.S. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
AGE Age Composition, Joint Metro Region 49.2% 50% 40% 30% 20% 13.8% 12.8% 12.3% 11.9% 10% 0% Pre and Young Next Gen Talent Prime Worker Age Pre-Retirees (55- Retirees (65+) Schoolers 0-9 (10-19) (20-54) 64) Source: REMI Projections
WORKING AGE Change in Working Age Population 16% 12.0% 12% 8% 7.0% 6.3% 4.7% 4% 2.3% 1.9% 0% 2010-2015 2015-2020 Joint Metro Region Nashville MSA Clarksville MSA Source: EMSI
AGING WORKFORCE & POPULATION Joint Metro Region Population Joint Metro Region Population Composition (2000) Composition (2030) Ages 85+ Ages 85+ Ages 80-84 Ages 80-84 Ages 75-79 Ages 75-79 Ages 70-74 Ages 70-74 Ages 65-69 Ages 65-69 Ages 60-64 Ages 60-64 Ages 55-59 Ages 55-59 Ages 50-54 Ages 50-54 Ages 45-49 Ages 45-49 Ages 40-44 Ages 40-44 Ages 35-39 Ages 35-39 Ages 30-34 Ages 30-34 Ages 25-29 Ages 25-29 Ages 20-24 Ages 20-24 Ages 15-19 Ages 15-19 Ages 10-14 Ages 10-14 Ages 5-9 Ages 5-9 Ages 0-4 Ages 0-4 5% 0% 5% 5% 0% 5% Male Female Male Female Source: REMI Projections
EDUCATION Employment Composition by Education, Joint Metro Region 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 27.2% Less than high school 24.1% 39.0% High school diploma 34.7% 6.7% Postsecondary non-degree award 7.8% 1.1% Some college, no degree 1.7% 4.6% Associate degree 6.0% 17.9% Bachelor's degree 20.1% 2.1% Doctoral or professional degree 3.3% 1.5% Master's degree 2.2% % of 2015 Jobs % of 2015-2020 Jobs Source: EMSI
EDUCATION Educational Attainment 35% 32.2% 30% 27.5% 26.4% 25% 22.1% 22.0% 21.9% 21.8% 19.8% 20% 17.0% 15% 11.3% 10.7% 9.3% 10% 8.8% 8.2% 7.8% 7.5% 7.2% 6.8% 4.7% 5% 3.8% 3.2% 0% Less than HS 9th-12th High school Some college, Associate Bachelor's Master's grade graduate no degree degree degree degree Joint Metro Region Tennessee U.S. Source: U.S. Census
LABOR MOBILITY
MIDDLE-SKILL OPPORTUNITIES
WORKFORCE SHORTAGES • “The labor force participation rate will continue to fall in coming years, as a vast majority of those who haven't retired will do so in the next couple of decades.” • “U.S. builders shed more than 2 million jobs during and after the housing bust. Now they can’t find enough carpenters, electricians… and other craftsmen.” • “The great conundrum of the U.S. economy today is that we have record numbers of working-age people out of the labor force at the same time we have businesses desperately trying to find workers.” • “Given all that has happened in the economy recently… the idea of a labor shortage might seem preposterous.” • “As the economy continues to slowly recover and millions of job openings are expected to appear over the next decade, there is a growing call for more educated workers to fill those positions.” • “ America has a deficit of workers. Willing workers. Capable workers. Skilled, or at least semi-skilled workers, who can do a job and do it well. There are at least 1 million jobs that go begging day after day if only employers could find workers to fill them .” Source: EMSI Projections
WORKFORCE SHORTAGES Source: CareerBuilder, 2012
WORKFORCE SHORTAGES EMPLOYEE / EMPLOYER RELATIONSHIPS SUFFER TOO Source: CareerBuilder, 2012
MIDDLE SKILLS Typical entry level into middle-skill jobs High school diploma with more than short-term, on-the-job training OR Work experience, but less than bachelor’s degree AND Median hourly wage over $13.68 in the joint metro region. Middle skills are an integral piece in resolving labor force shortages nationwide. Median wages for middle-skill jobs Nationwide, there are 42,831,979 jobs nationally are at $21.75 an hour, in middle-skill occupations. Middle- skill jobs are expected to grow 6% by 56% higher than the median of low- 2020. skill jobs. Source: EMSI Projections
SKILLS LADDER Training Skills Jobs Earnings
OCCUPATIONS BY SKILL/ EDUCATION ENTRY-LEVEL REQUIREMENTS
MIDDLE SKILLS Location Quotient Comparisons for Middle-Skill Jobs 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Atlanta Austin Charlotte Denver Indianapolis Kansas City Louisville Memphis Nashville Raleigh Tampa
MIDDLE SKILLS Middle-Skill Jobs, Joint Metro Region 340,000 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: EMSI Projections
MIDDLE SKILLS Middle Skills by Occupation, Joint Metro Region Production Occupations 17% Office and Administrative Occupations 17% Healthcare Practitioners Occupations 14% Over the past decade, Installation and Repair Occupations 12% growth in middle-skill jobs Sales Occupations 8% has been over 3.5 times the Transportation Occupations 7% national average, at 9.6%. Construction Occupations 5% Healthcare Support Occupations 3% 41.4% of production, Protectivion Occupations 3% transportation, construction, Management Occupations 3% and maintenance jobs are Food Preparation Occupations 2% middle-skill occupations. Computer Occupations 2% Business and Financial Occupations 2% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% Percentage middle skills Source: EMSI Projections
MIDDLE SKILLS Age Distribution: Middle-Skill Jobs, Joint Metro Region 30% 26.0% 24.8% 25% 22.2% 20% 16.0% 15% 10% 6.9% 5% 3.7% 0.3% 0% 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group Source: EMSI Projections
INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: HEALTH CARE Most Posted Skills in Health Care 25% 20.3% 20% 15% 10.1% 10% 8.4% 8.0% 7.1% 5% 0% Patient Care Treatment Medical Scheduling Accounting Planning Coding Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau
INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: HEALTH CARE Workforce Age 30% Jobs: 124,466 Average earnings: $62,808 25.7% Establishments: 4,323 24.2% 25% LQ: 0.95 22.4% 20% 14.7% 15% 10% 8.7% 5% 3.8% 0.5% 0% 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau
INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: MANUFACTURING Most Posted Skills in Manufacturing 18% 15.6% 15% 12% 11.4% 9.8% 9% 7.6% 6.8% 6% 3% 0% Repair Sales Inspection Accounting Scheduling Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau
INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: MANUFACTURING Workforce Age 35% Jobs: 81,226 30.1% Average earnings: $70,142 30% Establishments: 1,732 25.3% LQ: 1.03 25% 20% 18.2% 16.6% 15% 10% 6.5% 5% 2.9% 0.3% 0% 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau
INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: INFORMATION Most Posted Skills in Information Tech 30% 26.9% 25% 20% 15.0% 15% 13.6% 11.1% 10.0% 10% 5% 0% Sales Telecommunications Retail Sales Product Store Management Demonstration Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau
INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS: INFORMATION Workforce Age 30% 26.8% Jobs: 20,468 25.3% 25% 23.8% Average earnings: $83,190 Establishments: 1,113 LQ: 1.08 20% 15% 14.0% 10% 6.7% 5% 2.5% 0.9% 0% 14-18 19-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: EMSI, Burning Glass, and U.S. Census Bureau
BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND
WORKFORCE DEMAND Top 10 Job Postings 2015 Occupation Job Postings Location Quotient Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers 7,414 1.4 Registered nurses 7,250 1.3 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing 4,999 1.3 Retail salespersons 4,960 1.1 Computer occupations, all other 4,552 0.9 Customer service representatives 4,160 1.3 Software developers, applications 4,048 0.7 First-line supervisors of retail sales workers 3,302 1.1 Medical and health services managers 3,137 1.4 Accountants and auditors 2,787 1.2 Source: EMSI and Burning Glass
WORKFORCE DEMAND Top Skills Listed in Job Postings 10% 1.8 9% 8% 8% 7% 1.6 7% 7% 6% 1.4 4% 1.2 2% 0% 1.0 Sales Accounting Repair Scheduling Patient Care Percent of Postings Location Quotient Source: EMSI and Burning Glass
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