NICHOLAS M BIANCO & FRANZ T LITZ NICHOLAS M. BIANCO & FRANZ T. LITZ with contributions from MADELINE GOTTLIEB & THOMAS DAMASSA
Agriculture 7% Other 1% Other Industrial 5% Natural Gas Systems 2% 2% Electric Generating Units (Coal) Coal Mine 1% 28% HFCs 2% Adipic & Nitric Acid 0% Industrial Combustion 10% Landfills 2% df ll Electric Generating Units (Natural Gas) 5% Commercial & Residential Heating Residential Heating 7% Other Electric Generation Other Transportation p 1% 1% Light ‐ Duty 2% Off ‐ Highway Aircraft 16% Medium ‐ & Heavy ‐ 3% 2% Duty 6%
• PSD/BACT • New Source Performance Standards • Vehicle Emissions Standards • Title VI • CAFE Standards • Appliance and Equipment Standards • Emissions and Operational Standards for Aircraft
Business as usual Business ‐ as ‐ usual ‐ 2020 Emissions by Sector 2020 Emissions by Sector Lackluster Middle ‐ of ‐ the ‐ Road 2422 2500 2249 Go ‐ Getter 2171 2171 e tric Tons CO2e 2000 2001 1500 1057 1056 Million Met 1041 1000 1029 523 400 503 396 295 500 281 453 235 277 378 438 133 83 227 227 124 124 201 201 262 333 132 54 83 0 219 69 199 27 114 83 11 236 213 32 2 196 11 97 32 2 11 186 2
2030 Emissions by Sector Business ‐ as ‐ usual ‐ Lackluster 3000 Middle ‐ of ‐ the ‐ Road 2593 2413 2413 G G tt Go ‐ Getter 2500 ric Tons CO2e 2143 2000 1709 1066 1500 Million Metr 1047 935 1000 418 446 749 398 279 411 308 500 280 335 352 298 149 36 36 122 122 256 256 315 244 296 148 54 36 266 0 68 231 30 238 11 128 213 36 210 32 3 231 11 109 32 3 11 201 3 3
Example of Approach: Getting Reductions from Power Plants Getting Reductions from Power Plants US Environmental P Protection Agency: i A • Pre ‐ construction air permits require Best Available Control Available Control Technology (BACT) • New Source Performance Performance Standards (NSPS) US Dept of Energy: US Dept of Energy: • Appliance efficiency standards • Equipment efficiency standards
Emissions Reductions Under Waxman ‐ Markey Residential 1% Transportation T t ti 4% Industrial 10% Industrial 19% Electricity Electricity 60% 85% Transportation Transportation 21% 2020 2020 2030 2030 2020 2020 2030
Getting Reductions from Light ‐ Duty Vehicles US Environmental Protection Agency: • Vehicle emissions standards standards • Renewable Fuel Standard US Dept of Transportation: • CAFE standards • Federal funding to states F d l f di t t t
Light ‐ Duty Vehicle Scenarios 40 mpg 50 mpg 50 mpg + 30% EV +17% PHEV
Lackluster Scenario: Reduction Targets Set by Legislation Middle ‐ of ‐ the ‐ Road Scenario: Middle ‐ of ‐ the ‐ Road Scenario: Reduction Targets Set by Executive Order Go ‐ Getter Scenario: Regional Cap ‐ and ‐ Trade Initiatives
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