NAWMP NAWMP Revision Revision Consultation Workshop Consultation Workshop March 22, 2010 March 22, 2010 Milwaukee, WI Milwaukee, WI Fred A. Johnson, U.S. Geological Survey Fred A. Johnson, U.S. Geological Survey G. Scott Boomer, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service G. Scott Boomer, U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Dave Case, D. J. Case & Associates Dave Case, D. J. Case & Associates and members of the NAWMP Revision Steering Committee and members of the NAWMP Revision Steering Committee
What makes decisions hard? What makes decisions hard? � Sometimes you don � Sometimes you don’ ’t know all the possible t know all the possible actions actions � The objectives may be complex or � The objectives may be complex or contradictory, or in dispute contradictory, or in dispute � The system dynamics may be poorly known � The system dynamics may be poorly known � Sometimes we confuse all the components � Sometimes we confuse all the components � Even knowing all the other components, the � Even knowing all the other components, the solution (optimization) may be difficult to solution (optimization) may be difficult to figure out figure out 2
A Vision for A Vision for Integrated Waterfowl Management Integrated Waterfowl Management � … � … the Plan should seek to establish a the Plan should seek to establish a unified unified system of waterfowl conservation of waterfowl conservation … … system � … � … a fully a fully coherent coherent management system would management system would feature: feature: � A set of widely supported � A set of widely supported fundamental goals fundamental goals for for waterfowl conservation waterfowl conservation � A � A decision framework decision framework that allows managers to that allows managers to understand and balance tradeoffs understand and balance tradeoffs � Managers using that framework to efficiently � Managers using that framework to efficiently allocate resources allocate resources 3
Structured Decision Making Structured Decision Making � Is a formal method for analyzing a � Is a formal method for analyzing a decision, by breaking it into components decision, by breaking it into components � Helps identify where the impediments to � Helps identify where the impediments to a decision are, to focus effort on the right a decision are, to focus effort on the right piece piece � Provides a wide array of analytical tools � Provides a wide array of analytical tools for dealing with particular impediments for dealing with particular impediments 4
Benefits of structured decision making Benefits of structured decision making � Decision processes that are � Decision processes that are � Relatively bias free � Relatively bias free � Transparent � Transparent � Explicit � Explicit � Deliberative � Deliberative � Able to be documented � Able to be documented � Replicable � Replicable � Efficient, especially when no single person or entity is the � Efficient, especially when no single person or entity is the decision maker decision maker � An important goal is that everyone agrees with the � An important goal is that everyone agrees with the process, knowing that not everyone will agree with process, knowing that not everyone will agree with the outcome(s) the outcome(s) 5
Two key elements of SDM Two key elements of SDM � Values � Values- -focused focused � The objectives (values) are discussed first, and � The objectives (values) are discussed first, and drive the rest of the analysis drive the rest of the analysis � This is in contrast to our intuitive decision � This is in contrast to our intuitive decision- -making, making, which usually jumps straight to a debate of which usually jumps straight to a debate of alternative actions or outcomes alternative actions or outcomes � Problem decomposition � Problem decomposition � Break the problem into components, separating � Break the problem into components, separating policy from science policy from science � Specify components, gather & analyze relevant � Specify components, gather & analyze relevant information information � Recompose the parts to make a decision � Recompose the parts to make a decision 6
SDM process SDM process Mandates: Laws, Trigger policies, Problem preferences Decide & Objectives Take Action Consider: SDM Uncertainty Analysis and linked Toolkit decisions Tradeoffs & Alternatives Optimization (actions) Consequences Values: Preference Modeling scales, objective Toolkit weights & risk attitudes Data 7
Workshops I Workshops I Mandates: Laws, Trigger policies, Problem preferences Objectives Consider: Uncertainty and linked decisions Alternatives (actions) 8
Workshops II Workshops II Problem Decide & Take Action SDM Analysis Toolkit Tradeoffs & Optimization Consequences Values: Preference Modeling scales, objective Toolkit weights & risk attitudes Data 9
Workshop I goals Workshop I goals 1) To begin a process of engagement with waterfowl 1) To begin a process of engagement with waterfowl managers concerning the practical aspects of managers concerning the practical aspects of fulfilling “ “A Vision for Integrated Waterfowl A Vision for Integrated Waterfowl fulfilling Management” ” Management 2) To provide stakeholders (and/or their proxies) an 2) To provide stakeholders (and/or their proxies) an opportunity to express their beliefs about the opportunity to express their beliefs about the appropriate objectives of waterfowl management, appropriate objectives of waterfowl management, and how they might best be pursued from a large- - and how they might best be pursued from a large scale, strategic perspective scale, strategic perspective 3) To provide feedback that will be useful to the Plan 3) To provide feedback that will be useful to the Plan Committee as they develop the scope and nature of Committee as they develop the scope and nature of the pending Plan Revision the pending Plan Revision 10
Workshop agenda Workshop agenda � � This Morning: : This Morning � � Introduction Introduction � � The Revision Vision The Revision Vision � � Taking a SDM approach Taking a SDM approach � � Break- -out groups to: out groups to: Break � � Discuss the nature of the decision problem Discuss the nature of the decision problem � � Identify fundamental & means objectives for waterfowl management Identify fundamental & means objectives for waterfowl management � � Identify some measurable attributes Identify some measurable attributes � � Group discussion; opportunity for individual input Group discussion; opportunity for individual input � � This Afternoon This Afternoon: : � � Introduction to objectives hierarchies Introduction to objectives hierarchies � � Break- -out groups to: out groups to: Break � � Construct an objectives hierarchy Construct an objectives hierarchy � � Identify strategic actions to achieve objectives Identify strategic actions to achieve objectives � � Group presentations; synthesis Group presentations; synthesis 11
Break- -out Groups out Groups Break � Review and discuss the Problem Statement � Review and discuss the Problem Statement � Review the handout of potential objectives � Review the handout of potential objectives � Add missing objectives � Add missing objectives � Discuss and reach agreement on whether each is a � Discuss and reach agreement on whether each is a fundamental or means objective fundamental or means objective � Suggest re � Suggest re- -wording for clarity if necessary wording for clarity if necessary � Suggest one or more measurable attributes for your � Suggest one or more measurable attributes for your fundamental objectives fundamental objectives 12
Fundamental vs. means objectives Fundamental vs. means objectives � Fundamental objectives � Fundamental objectives � An essential reason for your interest in the � An essential reason for your interest in the problem or decision problem or decision � Constitute the broadest objectives influenced by � Constitute the broadest objectives influenced by your (conservation) actions your (conservation) actions � Important because � Important because it just is! it just is! � Means objectives � Means objectives � Represent a way station in the progress toward a � Represent a way station in the progress toward a fundamental objective (e.g., decrease natural fundamental objective (e.g., decrease natural mortality) mortality) � Serve to help generate potential actions and can � Serve to help generate potential actions and can deepen understanding of the decision problem deepen understanding of the decision problem 13
Recommend
More recommend
