Micro level realities and policy coherence in SAT-Asia: Mainstreaming Strategies for enhancing resilience to climate change Naveen P Singh K Byjesh and Cynthia Bantilan Research Program on Markets, Institutions and Policy (RP-MIP) ICRISAT, India Climate Change and Development Policy UNU-WIDER Conference 28-29th September 2012, Helsinki, Finland
Scheme of Presentation Linking Climate change with Agriculture & rural livelihoods Climate change – A Reality Research Agenda & Key questions Grass root level insights - needs & constraints Need based adaptation - Devising/linking government programs and policies Emerging messages Need based policy matrix Conclusion
Climate Change impacts & rural livelihood Agricultural productivity is sensitive to tw o broad class of clim ate induced effect - Direct effect ( Tem p, Rainfall, Co2 Concentration - I ndirect effect ( Changes in soil m oisture and distribution and frequency of infestation by pests and diseases etc. How ever, vulnerability of agricultural production to clim ate change depends not only on the physiological response of the effected plants, but also on the ability of the affected socio econom ic system s of production to cope w ith changes in yield- Village Dynam ics Virtual stagnation or very slow grow th of crop yields ( changing crop landscape) sustainability concerns and raising questions about viability of farm ing Reducing potential gains, effecting livelihoods ??? To cope up w ith these problem -solution !!! I m pact of clim ate change on SAT agriculture; Adaptation strategies and layers of resilience
Climate change impact in Dry land Agriculture Rise in temperature Increases crop pest reduced yield by and disease dynamics 3-8% per o C Variable & low em Fragile e Eco Syst st em Low public Rainfall investment (deviates 40% from LTA) vulnerable im pact s livelihood, h highly v Key Adapt at ion & Mit igat ion st ra rat egies Possible solution Pro-poor approaches for adaptation of agricultural system s to clim ate change
Climate Change – a reality All these trends and Eleven of the last twelve year ranked changes definitely among the 12 warmest years since impact farming; the 1850 livelihood of majority of Extreme events are becoming frequent rural poor. and highly pronounced Atmospheric temperature is rising and it is expected that the earth’s mean temperature will rise by 1.1–6.4°C by 2100 (IPCC, 2007) In India, mean temperature has risen at the rate of 0.2OC per decade in the last 40 years (INCCA, 2010) Monsoon shows localized negative trend with large intra and inter seasonal variability
Global Discourses on Climate Change: Searching context……. Expenditure on climate change - USD 9 Bn; around 90% on mitigation… biased perspective about adaptation Discourses on aggregates i.e. based on macro information, projections, modelled scenarios – less relevance at micro level CC agenda till recently reflected only on climatic indicators; little attention to other changes thereby skewed perspective; possibly due to lack of information Above approaches may not offer inspiring lead lines for evolving holistic coping strategies against risk Downscale the current approach by focusing on local situations Calls for generating credible information about potential risks due to CC and providing pragmatic options to policy makers and other stake holders
Vulnerability to Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies and Layers of Resilience The Agenda • To provide science-based solutions and pro-poor approaches for adaptation of agricultural systems to CC for the rural poor and most vulnerable farmers in south and south east Asia • The overall objective is to identify and prioritize the sectors most at risk and develop gender equitable agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies as an integral part of agricultural development in the most vulnerable areas • Develop a useful information repository to help policy decisions on critical issues affecting the future of agriculture and livelihoods in the marginal regions of Asia
Research agenda • To provide science-based solutions and pro-poor approaches for adaptation of agricultural systems to CC for the rural poor and most vulnerable farmers in south and south east Asia • The overall objective is to identify and prioritize the sectors most at risk and develop gender equitable agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies as an integral part of agricultural development in the most vulnerable areas • Develop a useful information repository to help policy decisions on critical issues affecting the future of agriculture and livelihoods in the marginal regions of Asia
Conceptual framew ork for addressing Climate Change agenda Exposure Climatic Analysis Variability & Change Scenarios Agricultural Institutions Adaptive Capacity Conceptual Approaches and Methods Productivity Social capital (Climatic Database, Provincial Level Sensitivity Data and Farmer Perceptions) Cropping Pattern Technology Input Use Infrastructure Impacts, Vulnerability Income Information, & Inequality Knowledge Skills Adaptation Assessment Employment Economic Migration factors Adaptation Planning • Farm, • Opportunities • Social Adaptation Layers of • Challenges • Technological Strategies Resilience • Institutional Policy Recommendations Implementation Benefits Economic, Social, Environmental
Key questions What are the; vulnerable regions, sectors, households? climatic trends & variability at micro level? grass root farm level insights? constraints to adaptation? Way forward & road map for action
Identifying and prioritizing Vulnerable regions - Illustration India Maharashtra Andhra Pradesh Majority of the districts of Indian SAT falls under vulnerable to very vulnerable to CC (>60%)
Identifying and prioritizing Vulnerable regions - Illustration PANCHAGAR LALMO NIRHAT N ILPHAMARI THAKUR GAON V ulnerability Ind ex 2006 L ess V ulnerable (0.00-0.20) KURIGRAM M oderately V ulnerable (0.21-0.40) D INAJPUR V ulnerable (0.41-0.60) R ANG PUR High ly V ulnerable (0.61-0.80) V ery Highly Vulnerable (0.81-1.00) G AIBANDHA SHERPUR JO YPURHAT JAMALPUR SYLHET N AO GAON N ETRAKO NA SUNAMGANJ BO GRA MYMENSINGH C HAPAI NAWABGANJ MO ULVI BAZAR R AJSHAH I SIRAJG ANJ N ATOR TANGAIL KISH OREGANJ H ABIGANJ Bangladesh Sri Lanka G AZIPUR PABNA N ARSINGDI BRAHMANBARIA KUSHTIA MANIKG ANJ MEHERPUR D HAKA N ARAYANGANJ R AJBARI C HUADANG A MUNSHIGANJ JHENAIDAH MAGURA FARIDPUR C OMILLA C HANDPUR MADARIPUR SHARIATPU R KHAGRACHHARI N ARAIL G OPALGANJ JESSO RE FENI LAKSMIPUR R ANG AMATI BARISAL PIROJPUR NOAKHALI JHALAKATI C HITTAGONG KHULNA BAGERHAT BHO LA SATKHIRA PATUAKHALI BO RGUNA BANDARBAN C OX'S BAZAR Thailand Vietnam
Climatic trends and variability Atmospheric temperature – Rise significantly over the years Rainfall - Highly variable and prominent over the years (CV upto 40%) Increased incidence of extreme events viz., drought, flood etc. Increased unpredictability of onset of monsoon season
Divergence in information from micro to macro level 1500 Country State Aurepalle village , District Mandal/ Tehsil Village Mahabubnagar, Andhra Pradesh, India 1200 Divergence in 900 information between Rainfall (mm) macro and micro levels 600 (Illustration :- rainfall) 300 This difference may not be considered during 0 1800 policy formulation Shirapur village , Solapur, Maharashtra, India 1500 Reduce efficiency & 1200 effectiveness of support policies and programs Rainfall (mm) 900 600 300 0 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
In precise… • Climatic realities experienced by farmers manifest at local level • Hence, meaningful strategies are imperative at disaggregated level
Grass root level insights some illustrations
Study domain/villages Six villages representing the SAT region • of India (Total 36 provinces across Asia) • Varying agro-bio physical factors, levels of development, Varying resource endowments and social capital Method of Elicitation 1. Longitudinal panel data 2. Personal interview 3. FGDs Akola Akola 4. Participant observations 5. Case study methods 6. Village workshops 7. National stake holder consultation and policy dialogue Approach : Exploratory research with Solapur Mahabubnagar Solapur Mahabubnagar qualitative and quantitative data sets
Study domain/villages
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