Methods to analyze interactions between emissions of air pollutants in Europe Adriana Ignaciuk Wageningen University, the Netherlands Environmental System Analysis Group Adriana.Ignaciuk@algemeen.cmkw.wau.nl co-authors: Carolien Kroeze, Ekko van Ierland 1 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Overview of the presentation ! Introduction " Purpose of the study # Comparison of emissions inventory databases $ Comparison of model databases % Conclusions and Recommendations 2 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Background • Global warming, acidification, eutrophication, enhanced levels of tropospheric ozone and stratospheric ozone depletion are interrelated problems • However, these problems are usually studied in isolation • Emission inventories are usually limited to only one of the problems and ignore interactions • First step towards an integrated analysis: analyze interactions affecting emissions 3 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Interactions between environmental problems ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES EMISSIONS ATMOSPHERIC PROBLEMS IMPACTS COMBUSTION IN ENERGY AND R TRANSFORMATION INDUSTRIES E SO 2 NON INDUSTRIAL D COMBUSTION PLANTS NOx U HUMAN HEALTH C COMBUSTION IN TROPOSPHERIC OZONE T MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY NMVOC SEA LEVEL RISE I PRODUCTION PROCESSES CH 4 O ACIDIFICATION CHANGE IN VEGETATION BELT N CO EXTRACTION AND DISTRIBUTION OF FOSSIL FUELS CHANGES IN CLIMATE CO 2 AGRICULTURE CHANGE SOLVENT AND OTHER PRODUCTION S PRODUCT USE T N 2 O CHANGE OF CLIMATE R CHARACTERISTICS ROAD TRANSPORT STRATOSPHERIC OZONE A NH 3 T OTHER MOBILE SOURCES AND MACHINERY E SOOT G WASTE TREATMENT AND I DISPOSAL FLUORO E CARBONS AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY S LAND USE AND WOOD STOCK CHANGE 4 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Purpose of the study To analyze some basic characteristics and requirements of emission inventories for Europe to be used in integrated assessments that analyze future global warming, acidification, eutrophication and ozone related problems simultaneously 1 Interactions between emissions and underlying processes 2 Existing emissions inventories: comparison of characteristics 3 Comparison of reduction strategies in model databases 4 Basic requirements of emission inventories for integrated analyses in Europe 5 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Four types of interactions between air pollutants • Human activities giving a rise to emissions of more then one gas e.g. energy use is a source of CO 2 , NO x , SO 2 , N 2 O • Biogenic and biogeochemical processes underlying emissions of more than one gas e.g. denitrification is a source of NO x and N 2 O • Reduction strategies affecting more then one pollutants e.g. switch from coal to natural gas reduces SO 2 and lowering NO x • Effects of changes in the environment on emissions e.g. global warming increases microbiological production of N 2 O 6 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Comparison of emission inventories •Emission inventories databases •EDGAR: Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research •CORINAIR:CO-oRdination d'INformation Environmentale •EMEP: Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe •IPCC: National Communication Database for GHGs •PER: Pollutant Emission Register for the Netherlands •Model databases •IMAGE:Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect •RAINS:Regional Air pollution INformation System for Europe •LOTOS: LOng Term Ozone Simulation model for Europe 7 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Characteristics of emission inventories for Europe Number of pollutants included range from 1 (METDAT) to ~170 (PER) Source categories of emissions included range from 20 (LOTOS) to 375 (CORINAIR) Spatial system boundaries are Europe (EMEP) or world (IMAGE2.0) Spatial aggregation level is country based (CORINAIR) or gridded (LOTOS) Temporal system boundaries range from 1 year ( LOTOS) to 1890-1995 (EDGAR) Temporal aggregation level range from annual totals (RAINS) to diurnal profiles (LOTOS) Uncertainty assessment limited Methods of emission estimation: mostly emission factor approach 8 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Reduction options for energy sector in models S upply S ide O ptions D em and S ide O ptions E nd of pipe F uel sw itch E nergy technologie s efficiency improve ment IM A G E 2.0 S O 2 , C O 2 , C H 4 , N 2 O , S O 2 , C O 2 , C H 4 , C H 4 , C O C H 4 , C O 2 2 H F C s, P F C s, N 2 O , H F C s, P F C s, S F 6 ,C O , N M V O C S F 6 , C O , N M V O C R A IN S E U R O P E 7.2 S O 2 , N O x , N H 3 , V O C - - - R A IN S -A S IA S O S O - - 2 2 LO T O S - - - - M E R G E - C O 2 , C H 4 , N 2 O C O 2 , C H 4 , N 2 O C O 2 , C H 4 , N 2 O M A R K A L M A TTE R C O 2 , C H 4 , N 2 O - C O 2 , C H 4 , N 2 O C O 2 , C H 4 , N 2 O 9 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Requirements for emission inventories in integrated analyses for Europe For Economic For Atmospheric For Policy Analysts Scientists Analysts Components Every Every Every Emission sources Economic sectors Point and area Economic sectors/ included sources per fuel type Spatial system Europe Europe Europe boundaries Spatial aggregation National Fine grid Regional level Temporal system Historical and future Historical Long term historical boundaries and future Temporal Annual Hourly Annual aggregation level Uncertainties Medium importance High importance Low importance Reduction strategies Detailed Not needed Detailed Ideal emission inventory meets all these needs 10 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
How far away are the current models? Characteristics IMAGE RAINS LOTOS IDEAL Components +/ - +/ - +/ - All Emission sources included + + - Detailed Spatial system boundaries + + + Europe Spatial aggregation level - - + Fine grid Temporal system boundaries + + - Long term Temporal aggregation level - - + Hourly Uncertainties - +/ - - High Reduction strategies + + - Detailed 11 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Conclusions (1) 1 Interactions • Four types of interactions between air pollution problem exist that affect emissions 2 Emission databases • Emission database differ considerably with respect to gases included, spatial and temporal characteristics and number of sources included • Poor uncertainty assessment • Most emissions are based on simple emission factor approaches 3 Reduction strategies in models • Models usually do not include both demand and supply side options for a wide range of gases • Most models do not include interactions between pollutants 12 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Conclusions (2) 4 Requirements for emission data for integrated analyses could be based on the data needs of economic, atmospheric and policy-oriented models • Atmospheric models: need high resolution temporal and spatial data • Economic models: need detailed specifications of source categories • Policy oriented models: need long time datasets and reduction strategies A consistent dataset meeting all these needs for all compounds may not be easy to achieve 13 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
Recommendations • Linking of existing emission inventories • Make inventories more flexible • Soft linking of existing models for the purpose of scenario analyses • Linking of models for optimization analysis • Develop a modeling framework for an integrated analysis of different air pollution problems accounting for all interactions between pollutants 14 Adriana Ignaciuk - Environmental System Analysis Group - Wageningen University
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