Medium Term Program (2013-2015) 9 October 2012
WORLD ECONOMY 2
Global Growth (Annual % Change) 7 6 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.9 5 4.6 3.8 4 3.7 3.6 3.3 2.8 3 2 1 0 -0.6 -1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013* (*) Forecast 3 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012
Global Growth Forecast (%) 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.0 2011 2012 2013 September 2011 Forecast October 2012 Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012 4
Euro Area Growth Forecast (%) 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 2011 2012 2013 September 2011 Forecast October 2012 Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012 5
Emerging and Developing Economies Growth Forecast (%) 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.0 2011 2012 2013 September 2011 Forecast October 2012 Forecast Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012 6
World Trade Volume (Annual % Change) (*) Forecast 7 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012
Unemployment Rate (%) (*) Forecast 8 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012
General Government Gross Debt / GDP (%) (*) Forecast 9 Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, October 2012
Crude Oil (Brent, US Dollars per barrel) Source: Reuters 10 Note: 2013 and onwards reflect MTP assumptions.
TURKISH ECONOMY 11
GDP Growth Rate (Annual % Change) 12 Source: TURKSTAT
Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted, %) 13 13 13 Source: TURKSTAT
Annual Inflation Rate (% Change) 14 Source: TURKSTAT
Current Account Balance (Annualized, Billion Dollars) 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 2007-1 3 5 7 9 11 2008-1 3 5 7 9 11 2009-1 3 5 7 9 11 2010-1 3 5 7 9 11 2011-1 3 5 7 9 11 2012-1 3 5 7 Current Account Balance Current Account Balance Excl. Energy Imports 15 Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT
Main Priorities of Medium Term Program With the ultimate goal of boosting Turkey’s welfare; Raising economic growth to its potential level, Increasing employment, Continuing to fight against inflation, Sustaining the downward trend in current account deficit, Increasing domestic savings and, thus strengthening macroeconomic and financial stability. 16
GDP Growth Rate (%) 17
Unemployment Rate (%) 18
Inflation Rate (%) 19
Current Account Deficit / GDP (%) 20
Central Government Budget Deficit / GDP (%) (*) Forecast/Target 21
Public Sector Primary Balance (Program Defined) / GDP (%) (*) Forecast/Target 22
EU Defined Public Debt / GDP (%) (*) Forecast/Target 23
Main Structural Issues – I Raising savings awareness Promoting better use of resources in both public and private sectors Simple and predictable tax policies to support the competitiveness of the economy and reduce informality Increasing tax compliance and broadening the tax-base Reducing import dependency on energy Improving energy efficiency Supporting domestic and foreign investments that would help reach sustainable growth, increase employment and exports as well as reduce import dependency Improving business environment 24
Main Structural Issues – II Improving R&D and innovation, increasing the use of information and communication technologies Shifting to a high value-added production structure in industry and services Increasing the diversification of export markets and access to finance Developing policies in consultation with social partners to reduce the rigidities in the labor market Strengthening the link between social assistance and employment policies Improving the education system and increasing sensitivity of education to labor demand Improving the judicial system 25
TABLES 26
GROWTH AND INFLATION FORECASTS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GDP Growth (%) 9.2 8.5 3.2 4.0 5.0 5.0 GDP (Billion TL) 1,099 1,298 1,435 1,571 1,740 1,933 GDP per Capita ($) 10,022 10,469 10,673 11,318 11,982 12,859 CPI (%) 6.4 10.5 7.4 5.3 5.0 5.0 27
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS FORECASTS (Billion $) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports (Fob) 113.9 134.9 149.5 158.0 172.3 187.1 Imports (Cif) 185.5 240.8 239.5 253.0 272.2 291.2 Trade Deficit -71.6 -105.9 -90.0 -95.0 -99.9 -104.1 Tourism Receipts 20.8 23.0 23.5 25.4 27.0 28.4 Current Account Balance (CAB) -46.6 -77.1 -58.7 -60.7 -63.6 -64.7 CAB / GDP (%) -6.3 -10.0 -7.3 -7.1 -6.9 -6.5 28
LABOR MARKET FORECASTS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Employment (thousand persons) 22,594 24,110 24,728 25,223 25,728 26,243 Non-agricultural Employment (thousand persons) 16,911 17,967 18,639 19,149 19,669 20,199 Employment Rate (%) 43.0 45.0 45.2 45.3 45.3 45.5 Unemployment Rate (%) 11.9 9.8 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 29
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET FIGURES (Million TL) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Expenditures 362,668 403,988 436,849 471,150 Primary Expenditures 313,668 350,988 381,849 413,650 Interest Payments 49,000 53,000 55,000 57,500 Total Revenues 329,197 370,095 401,369 436,841 Tax Revenues 278,822 317,949 346,961 379,405 Non-Tax Revenues 50,374 52,146 54,408 57,436 Budget Balance -33,472 -33,893 -35,480 -34,309 30
PUBLIC FINANCE (% of GDP) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Public Sector Balance -1.7 -1.5 -1.1 -0.9 Central Government Budget -2.3 -2.2 -2.0 -1.8 Rest of the Public Sector 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 Public Sector Primary Balance (Program Defined) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 Central Government Budget 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 Rest of the Public Sector 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 31
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