Measuring Up Rick Curtis Facilitator Chief Superintendent - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Practically Science, Technology and Measuring Up Rick Curtis Facilitator Chief Superintendent Department of Fire & Emergency Services 8 – 11 August 2017, Busselton, Western Australia

Examining the Science, Technology and Research of Prescribed Burning. Presentation 1 - “More burning, less fire” – Dr Richard Thornton - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Presentation 2 - “Another tool for prescribed burning” - Agnes Kristina Dept Fire & Emergency Services Presentation 3 - “Research is important? Really?” - Dr Richard Thornton - Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

More burning, less fire Dr Richard Thornton Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

Australia’s fire-prone landscapes Structure:  People have been burning for thousands of years and must continue to do so  When people burn more, there is less fire REGIONAL FIRE REGIME  Large fires are unacceptable because they are CLIMATE harmful and costly  Prescribed burning greatly enhances the effectiveness of fire preparedness, planning and suppression response.  Effective burning measures

When people burn more, there is less fire  In SW WA, prescribed burning reduced the scale of bushfires 1960s-1990s. Decadal trends in the mean annual proportion (%) of south west forests (2.5M ha) burnt by prescribed fire and wildfire 1951-2015  BUT big fires return in the new 16 PB WF millennium 14 12 10 Area (%)  Similar pattern across southern 8 6 Australia 4 2 0  Similar pattern in central and 1951- 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2001- 20011- 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 northern Australia following Decade cessation of traditional Aboriginal burning

Why an increase in bushfire in southern Australia this millennium?  Can we blame it all on climate change? No  Is it multi-factorial? Yes  The reduction in anthropogenic (prescribed) burning is a key driver of megafires

Prescribed burning is a powerful synergiser for preparedness, planning and suppression actions  If fuels are allowed to build up over large areas Fire line intensity (kW/m) 25 t/ha Fuel Hazard 4 Fuel Hazard 4 (long unburnt areas) suppression will fail 5000 15 t/ha (8 - 15 year since last burn) 4000 Fuel Hazard 3  3000 Reducing fuel load reduces 10 t/ha (5 - 8 years since last burn) the speed and power of a 2000 Fuel Hazard 2 7.5 t/ha bushfire (< 5 years since last burn) 1000 0 Low Mod High Very High Severe 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50  Forest fire danger rating In a low fuel load landscape there will always be a part of the fire that can be attacked

Effective burning Proportion of SW forest region (2.5 M ha) To be effective , prescribed burnt by prescribed fire (mean of 4 yrs) with burning must be : proportion burnt by wildfire (mean of succeeding 4 yrs) 3  Strategic (right places) 2.5 2 Wildfire (%)  Done at appropriate temporal 1.5 and spatial scales 1 0.5  Done to appropriate standards 0 0 5 10 15 20 Prescribed fire (%)  Ecologically appropriate (Source: Sneeuwjagt 2008; updated by Burrows)

Effective burning (burning ain’t burning)  Zoning • Community protection zone • Bushfire mitigation zone • Biodiversity management zone  Not a ‘medieval fortress’ strategy around settlements – we need to manage fuel in all zones

Another tool for Prescribed Burning Agnes Kristina Bushfire and Environmental Protection Branch Department of Fire and Emergency Services

Prescribed burn and Technology • Prescribed burn(ing) is defined as: The controlled application of fire under specified environmental conditions to a predetermined area, and at a time, intensity and rate of spread required to attain planned resource-management objectives (AFAC 2012) • Remote sensing is acquisition of information about objects or areas derived from a distance, typically from aircraft or satellites (Landsat, Sentinel, MODIS, NOAA AVHRR, VIIRS and Himawari-8) • Applications of remotely sensed data: • Historical Fire Information, • Real-Time Fire Information, and • Fire Prediction (Aurora Fire Spread Simulator)

Prescribed Burn and Technology BENEFICIAL ECOLOGICAL BURNING FIRE REGIME fire frequency, fire extent, fire season, fire intensity, fire patchiness, and the ongoing combination of these factors (AFAC 2015b) NOAA AVHRR LANDSAT MODIS

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Fire History)

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Present) Historical Fire Burnt Areas Fuel Age Vegetation Greenness Fuel Condition Total Dry Matter Grassland Curing Fuel Load Fuel Condition

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Burn Severity) Vegetation Greenness Fuel Condition Satellite-inferred burn severity data have become increasingly popular over the last decade for management and research purposes. The data typically quantify spectral change between pre-and post-fire satellite images

Prescribed burn and Technology (Digital Elevation Model)

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Future) • Aurora is a national bushfire spread prediction system • Joint collaboration between Department of Fire and Emergency Services, The University of Western Australia and Landgate • Simulator considers Digital elevation data, vegetation types, WA Bushfire Threat Analysis, Time of last burn, Rate of Spread Models, Fuel Accumulation Models, Forecasted weather, Drought factor, Fire Hotspots or ignitions • Aurora aims to: ‐ Accurately simulate a bushfire in real-time ‐ -Communicate community warnings ‐ Improve capability in planning and responding to bushfire ‐ Web based information available to the community

Prescribed Burn and Technology (Future) 24 December 2016 21 December 2016 26 December 2016

Research is important? Really? Dr Richard Thornton CEO Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC www.bnhcrc.com.au

What is happening? Lots! → Better predictions and forecasts → Better understanding of ecological impacts/benefits → Better risk assessments and mitigation → Better understanding of smoke impact → Better fire behaviour understanding → Better community engagement knowledge

So why is this important to you? • Data and observations - BOM is getting better at providing these – do you know how to access them? • Fire-fighter safety - a growing concern. • PLUS politics and inquiries - insisting on more burning and chastising you if you don’t . • PLUS public and commercial outrage of being smoked out. • PLUS reduced public funding - and a call to be more accountable for cost/benefits.

So why is this important to you? When things go pear-shaped you can be sure that the inquiries – lawyers – public will all know the latest best practice and science. WHAT DO YOU KNOW?

Workshops

WORKSHOP 1- Dr Richard Thornton How do we set measurable prescribed burn objectives linked to bushfire threat and risk mitigation? How do we evaluate that objectives have been successfully achieved taking into account efficiencies and accountability?

WORKSHOP 2 – Anges Kristina How does your organisation currently use technology in Prescribed Burning? How would you rank available technologies in their importance to improving Prescribed Burning performance? What new technologies for prescribed burning do you see for the future and how will they be used?

WORKSHOP 3 - Dr Richard Thornton What processes do you have in place to monitor the current state of knowledge? Who do you ask? How do you acquire and include new knowledge in your plans and processes?

Considerations and Thoughts: • Technology and Science • Community reaction and need • Legal responsibility • Strategic focus • Standards • Environmental impacts

Thank you, your input will make a difference.