measuring disagreement in science
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Measuring disagreement in science Dakota Murray, Wout Lamers, Kevin - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Slides at: https://... @dakotasmurray Measuring disagreement in science Dakota Murray, Wout Lamers, Kevin Boyack, Vincent Larivire, Cassidy R. Sugimoto, Nees Jan van Eck, Ludo Waltman SciTech Strategies Disagreement in science


  1. % Validity Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Lots of heterogeneity

  2. % Validity Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 1: ✓ Valid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 1: X Invalid Coder 2: ✓ Valid Coder 2: X Invalid Lots of heterogeneity

  3. Ordered by Validity Both

  4. Ordered by Validity Both ● % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely

  5. Ordered by Validity Both ● % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely ● We don’t want obviously bad queries

  6. Ordered by Validity Both ● % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely ● We don’t want obviously bad queries ● Set a validity threshold—80%

  7. Both ● % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely ● We don’t want obviously bad queries ● Set a validity threshold—80% ● 23 queries accounting for ~450,000 citation sentences.

  8. Both ● % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely ● We don’t want obviously bad queries ● Set a validity threshold—80% Disagreement ● 23 queries accounting for ~450,000 citation sentences. Non-exhaustive, but precise!

  9. Both ● % Agreement stable, %valid varied widely ● We don’t want obviously bad queries ● Set a validity threshold—80% Disagreement ● 23 queries accounting for ~450,000 citation sentences. Non-exhaustive, but precise!

  10. Assess disagreement based on... ● Discipline ● Over time ● Age of cited paper Disagreement ● Self Citation

  11. Measuring disagreement by discipline

  12. Disagreement by field Auguste Comte’s Hierarchy of sciences

  13. Disagreement by field Auguste Comte’s Hierarchy of sciences More complex, Less consensus Less complex More consensus

  14. Disagreement by field Auguste Comte’s Hierarchy of sciences More complex, Less consensus Less complex More consensus

  15. Disagreement by field Too coarse-grained? Auguste Comte’s Hierarchy of sciences More complex, Less consensus Less complex More consensus

  16. Digging deeper Meso-level fields (clusters of papers)

  17. Digging deeper Meso-level fields (clusters of papers) Area maps to total citation sentences Distance reflects relatedness

  18. Digging deeper Meso-level fields (clusters of papers) Area maps to total citation sentences Distance reflects relatedness Color indicates ratio of % disagreement to the average

  19. Digging deeper Meso-level fields (clusters of papers) Soc & Hum Math & Comp Area maps to total citation sentences Distance reflects relatedness Color indicates ratio of % disagreement to the average “Horseshoe” shape moves from social sciences to Mathematics and computer science Bio & Health Phys & Life & Earth Engr

  20. Hierarchy repeated Soc & Hum Math & Comp Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  21. Hierarchy repeated... Soc & Hum Math & Comp Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  22. Hierarchy repeated...with heterogeneity Soc & Hum Math & Comp Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  23. Biomedical and Health Sciences Soc & Hum Math & Comp Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  24. Biomedical and Health Sciences Soc & Hum “Health Affairs” Math & Comp “Health Policy” “Pharmacoeconomics” Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  25. Similar in Mathematics and Computer Science Soc & Hum Math & Comp Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  26. Similar in Mathematics and Computer Science Soc & Hum “Transportation Research Math & Comp Records” “Accident Analysis and Prevention” Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  27. Similar in Life & Earth Science Soc & Hum Math & Comp Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  28. Similar in Life & Earth Science “Ecological Economics” Soc & Hum “Land Use Policy” Math & Comp “Ecological Indicators” Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  29. Similar in Life & Earth Science “Ecological Economics” Soc & Hum “Land Use Policy” Math & Comp “Ecological Indicators” More “social” fields often have more disagreement Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  30. Similar in Life & Earth Science...but also new patterns Soc & Hum Math & Comp “Journal of vertebrate paleontology” More “social” fields often “Cretaceous Research” have more disagreement “Sedimentary Research” “Journal of Volcanology” “Earth and Planetary Science Letters” Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  31. Similar in Life & Earth Science...but also new patterns Soc & Hum Math & Comp “Journal of vertebrate paleontology” More “social” fields often “Cretaceous Research” have more disagreement “Sedimentary Research” Fields that can’t experiment have more disagreement “Journal of Volcanology” “Earth and Planetary Science Letters” Bio & Health Phys & Engr Life & Earth

  32. Takeaways ● Re-confirm the hierarchy of sciences using disagreement ○ Additional evidence that our approach is robust ○ Supports bast bibliometric studies of the hierarchy (Fanelli & Glänzel, 2013) ● Identify heterogeneity ○ Based on epistemic characteristics of the fields Fanelli, D., & Glänzel, W. (2013). Bibliometric Evidence for a Hierarchy of the Sciences. PLoS ONE, 8(6), e66938. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0066938

  33. Measuring disagreement over time

  34. Disagreement over time

  35. Disagreement over time ● Mostly stable, slight decrease

  36. Disagreement over time ● Mostly stable, slight decrease ● Mostly driven by a few fields

  37. Disagreement over time ● Mostly stable, slight decrease ● Mostly driven by a few fields ● Takeaways ○ Is this real? ○ Are these changes significant?

  38. Measuring disagreement by age of cited paper

  39. Disagreement and age Relative age of cited paper (years)

  40. Disagreement and age ● After a bump , older papers are disagreed with less Relative age of cited paper (years)

  41. Disagreement and age ● After a bump , older papers are disagreed with less ● Field differences Relative age of cited paper (years)

  42. Disagreement and age ● After a bump , older papers are disagreed with less ● Field differences ● Takeaways ○ Disagreement relates to age ○ Selection effect? Relative age of cited paper (years)

  43. Measuring disagreement… by self citation

  44. Disagreement and Self-citation ● People should disagree with themselves less

  45. Disagreement and Self-citation ● People should disagree with themselves less

  46. Presence of Disagreement and Self-citation author overlap ● People should disagree with themselves less ● Similar across fields

  47. Presence of Disagreement and Self-citation author overlap ● People should disagree with themselves less ● Similar across fields ● Takeaways ○ Confirms expectations ○ Perfunctory citations?

  48. So far, our measure has revealed insights based on... ● Discipline ● Time ● Age of cited paper ● Self citation Disagreement

  49. So far, our measure has revealed insights based on... ● Discipline ● Time ● Age of cited paper ● Self citation ● And the process of keyword-based studies itself Disagreement

  50. Our approach is transparent ● We can open the black box and see exactly where issues occur ○ In contrast to common Machine Learning techniques ● Contextualizes our analysis ● Informs future keyword-based studies

  51. When a signal is a proper noun “...the conflict monitoring theory [6] provides a slightly different way to account for conflict effects.”

  52. When a signal is an object of study “Caselli and Coleman study conflicts based on ethnicity....”

  53. When a signal is just in reference to the wrong thing “...consumers are usually self-motivated and enthusiastic in exchanging, sharing and debating ideas... (Anderson & Weitz, 1992).”

  54. When it’s somebody’s name “Measurement items for perceived risks were also developed from Debatin et al.’s (2009) study.”

  55. Isolated, or systematic? ● Overall, we capture disagreement, ○ Heterogeneity by field

  56. Isolated, or systematic? ● Overall, we capture disagreement, ○ Heterogeneity by field

  57. Isolated, or systematic? ● Overall, we capture disagreement, ○ Heterogeneity by field Each line corresponds to a meso-field Color matches ratio to average across all fields

  58. Isolated, or systematic? ● Overall, we capture disagreement, ○ Heterogeneity by field ● Debat* overrepresented in Soc & Hum

  59. Isolated, or systematic? ● Overall, we capture disagreement, ○ Heterogeneity by field ● Debat* overrepresented in Soc & Hum ● No consensus in Bio & Health

  60. Isolated, or systematic? ● Overall, we capture disagreement, ○ Heterogeneity by field ● Debat* overrepresented in Soc & Hum ● No consensus in Bio & Health ● Disagree* in Phys & Engr, Life & Earth

  61. Isolated, or systematic? ● Overall, we capture disagreement, ○ Heterogeneity by field ● Debat* overrepresented in Soc & Hum ● No consensus in Bio & Health ● Disagree* in Phys & Engr, Life & Earth ● Are these driven by artefacts?

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