The World Potato Picture Manitoba Potato Production Days Compiled by Cedric Porter & Guy Faulkner World Potato Markets www.worldpotatomarkets.com
World Potato Markets Essential weekly information for potato growers, packers, processors, buyers and retailers. World Potato Markets is published every Tuesday and covers European and World markets for potatoes, keeping track of physical and futures market prices and the latest area, yield and production statistics. It monitors volumes, values, destinations and originating countries of world exports and imports of fresh potatoes, fries, chips (crisps), dehydrated products and seed. World Potato Markets provides detailed forecasts of plantings and yields in the central five EU countries (Germany, the Netherlands, France, UK and Belgium). It also reports on crops in North America, in other EU countries and in all important growing countries.
A world united by the Potato
A world united by the Potato
World potato production up 50% since 1980. Source: UN FAOSTAT World potato production in billion lbs 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
…Biggest opportunities are outside the EU & N. America 2050 Population by continent and % change to 2050. Source: UN 6 120 100 5 Population in billions % change 2015:50 80 4 60 3 40 2 20 1 0 0 -20 Asia Africa Europe EU-27 S. America N. Oceania America Billion people % change
% production by region Cent Oceania, 0.4 S. America, 3.9 N. America, 6.2 Am + Africa, 7.5 Caribb, 0.6 Asia, 48.8 Europe, 31.6
Importance of China, India & EU Cent Oceania, 0.4 S. America, 3.9 N. America, 6.2 Am + Caribb, 0.6 China, 24.9 Rest of Europe, 16.6 India, 11.9 EU, 15.1 Rest of Asia, 11.9
Stable Canadian production Canada production in million cwt. Source: Statcan 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Steady growth in Manitoba production Canadian potato production by Province in cwt million. Source: Statcan 30 25 20 2013 15 2014 10 2015 2016 5 0 PEI Manitoba Alberta New Quebec Brunswick
Canadian yields have increased by 27% since 2005 Average Canadian yield cwt/ac. Source: Statcan 330 310 290 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Manitoba’s yields compare favourably World potato yields in cwt/ac in 2016 unless otherwise stated World 178 US fall 451 Idaho (2015) 405 Germany 392 Belgium 384 UK 384 Netherlands 379 Oceania 369 France 357 Manitoba 344 Canada 306 European Union 288 Argentina (2014) 262 India (2014) 204 Poland 201 Europe (2014) 198 Asia (2014) 168 China (2014) 151 South America (2014) 147 Russia (2014) 134 Africa (2014) 122 Sources: Satcan, USDA, Eurostat, UN FAOSTAT
Top 15 markets for frozen French fries in metric tonnes Imports in year % change to Aug. 2016 2006:16 Main suppliers United States 860793 +13.4 Canada (98%) France 587013 +39.6 Belgium (64%), Netherlands (32%) United Kingdom 569223 +56.4 Netherlands (63%), Belgium (33%) Netherlands 348288 +329.8 Belgium (78%), France (7.5%) Japan 318660 +7.7 USA (75%), Belgium (9%), Netherlands (7%), Canada (6%) Brazil 314280 +168.6 Argentina (48%), Netherlands (24%), Belgium (22%) Italy 242052 +38.6 Belgium (29%), Netherlands (28%), France (24%) Germany 240721 +13.6 Netherlands (70%), Belgium (16%), Austria (8%) Saudi Arabia* 233627 +163.5 EU (82%), USA (15%), Spain 182370 +41.3 Netherlands (36%), Belgium (34%), France (24%) Belgium 160899 +135.6 Netherlands (78%), France (7.5%) China 155578 +184.0 USA (71%), Canada (13%) Australia 117270 +365.4 NZ (37%), USA (26%), Netherlands (25%), Belgium (10%) South Korea 106376 +192.8 USA (82%), Canada (8%), Belgium (5%) Russia 99015 +85.7 Netherlands (42%), Poland (41%), Belgium (7.5%) * Calculated figure based on export figures from main suppliers. Source: IHS GTA & World Potato Markets
North America & Europe dominate frozen market, but growth is outside those areas Frozen potato product market in billion lbs. Source: Euromonitor 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 North Europe Asia (ex South Middle China Central Africa Growth Project America China & America East America 2011-15 growth Mid 2016-20 East)
China is largest foodservice market, but chain penetration is still small worldwide World food service markets in US$ billion. Source: Euromonitor 800 700 600 Chains 500 Independents 400 300 200 100 0 China N. America Asia Pacific W. Europe Latin Mid East & E. Europe Australasia (ex China) America Africa
Frozen fries account for 53% of total potato trade World potato export values ( € billion) 6.0 Fries Other, incl. ware 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 Excludes seed and sweet potatoes 0.0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Unstoppable world fry demand – increases of 63% by volume & 126% by value since 2005 Fry exports by 20 leading countries 8 6000 Million tonnes € million 7 5000 6 Million tonnes 4000 5 € million 4 3000 3 2000 2 12-month periods ending July, Aug., Sep. or Oct. 1000 1 0 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Canadian fry exports recover from 2010 low Canada frozen fry exports in billion lbs. Source: IHS- GTA & World Potato Markets 2.250 2.200 2.150 2.100 2.050 2.000 1.950 1.900 1.850 1.800 1.750 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Higher prices mean value of trade has increased by 50% since 2005 Value and price of Canadian fry exports. Source: IHS- GTA & World Potato Markets 1.400 60 Canada frozen fry exports in Ca$ billion 1.200 Canadian fry export price in Ca$/cwt 50 1.000 40 Ca$ billion Ca$/cwt 0.800 30 0.600 20 0.400 10 0.200 0.000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Reliance (over reliance?) on the US export market % of Canadian fry exports by volume sold to USA 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 72 70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Canada loses out to EU & USA in world fry markets Frozen fry exports in cwt billion. Source: IHS-GTA & World Potato Markets 3.500 EU outside EU 3.000 Canada not including USA 2.500 USA 2.000 1.500 1.000 0.500 0.000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Canadian fries are competitive Price of fry exports in Ca$/cwt to world markets. Source IHS-GTA & World Potato Markets 80 70 60 50 40 30 USA 20 EU 10 Canada 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Canada has lost out to the US in the Mexican market Fry exports and prices to Mexico. Source: IHS-GTA & World Potato Markets 300 80 Canada exports US exports 70 250 Canada price 60 US price 200 Cwt million 50 Ca$/cwt 150 40 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Canadian fries are cheaper than EU ones in China Fry exports and prices to China 300 Canada exports EU exports 80 US exports Canada price 70 250 EU price US price 60 200 Cwt million 50 Ca$/cwt 150 40 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US dominates Japanese fry demand despite high prices Fry exports and prices to Japan 700 80 70 600 60 500 Cwt million 50 Ca$/cwt 400 Canada exports 40 EU exports 300 US exports 30 Canada price EU price 200 20 US price 100 10 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EU potato area stabilises in 2016 EU area and production of potatoes 100 4000 Million tonnes 000 hectares 3500 80 3000 Million tonnes '000 hectares 2500 60 2000 40 1500 1000 20 500 0 0 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16p 50% drop in area since 1999
What’s key is the production in main five Western European countries. In 2016 output was down despite increase in area Ware area and production estimates for EU-5. Source: NEPG 30 580 560 28 540 '000 hectares 26 Million tonnes 520 24 500 480 22 460 20 440 18 Million tonnes 000 hectares 420 16 400 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16p 5 = Belgium, France, Germany Netherlands & United Kingdom
Massive increase in Belgian fry output and exports Belgian processing potato use & fry exports in tonnes (exports in years ending August) 5000000 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f Potatoes processed in tonnes Fry exports
Dutch output of ‘pre - cooked’ products, 12 -month periods (‘000 tonnes) 2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Dutch processing usage, 12- month periods (‘000 tonnes) 4000 3800 3600 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Belgium and Netherlands are at or near Peak Potato.
US potato production is stable US Fall potato production in 1000 cwt 430000 420000 410000 400000 390000 380000 370000 360000 350000 340000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Recommend
More recommend
