Management of Risks Related to Long Waves Impact and Oil Spills - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Management of Risks Related to Long Waves Impact and Oil Spills European Joint Master in Water and Coastal Management EU-COMET2 Nikolay Plink ICM Department Russian State Hydrometeorological University St. Petersburg plink@rshu.ru TEMPUS/Erasmus -Mundus: EU-COMET 2

Objectives � Introduction into methodology of risk management; � Using of theory of risk management for mitigation of impact due to marine natural disaster related with extreme sea level oscillations such as storm surge and tsunami; � Strategy of risk management related with possibility of oil spills.

Requirements � Not special requirements are need except some background and knowledge of methodology of Integrated Coastal management, � Recommendable to have some experience dealing with ocean (coastal) physical oceanography (Long wave Theory).

Programme � Exsample “The Sumatra tsunami, 2004” ; � Introduction into general theory of risk management -Methodology of risk management; � Coastal risk management, related to extremal sea level oscillations; � Stretegy of risk management related with possibility of oil spills (with reference to the Baltic Sea).

Bibliography Plink N.L., Gogoberidze G.G. “Coastal Policy” – SPb.: RSHU, 2003.- 171- 187pp (in � Russian) HELCOM Third Periodic Assessment of the State of Marina Environment of the � Baltic Sea, 1989 -1993. Executive Summary Balt. Sea Environ. – Proc. No 64 A,B,1996 Tuovinen P., Kostilainen V., Hamamainen F., Study on Ship Casualties in the Baltic � Sea 1979-1981 Baltic Sea Environment Proceeding. –No 11, 1984. “Study of the risk for accidents and the related environmental hazard from the � transportation of chemicals by tankers in the Baltic Sea” – Baltic Sea Environment Proceeding No 34, 1990 Robert Kay, Jackie Alder Coastal Planning and Management – E&FN Spon, � Routledge, London, 1999.-371 pp. Methodological Guide To Integrated Coastal Zone Management – Manuals and � Guides No 36, UNESCO, 1997 – 47 p. Methodology Guide “Steps and Tools Towards Integrated Coastal Area � Management - Manuals and Guides No 42, UNESCO, 2001 – 64 pp. Impact of sea Level Rise on Cities and regions –Proceeding of the First � International meeting “Cities on the Water”, Venice, December 11-13 1989 – Venice 1991 ISBN 86-317-5449-1 Defant A. “Physical Oceanography” vol. 1,2 Pergamon, Oxford, (1961); � Waves, Tides and Shallow-Water processes, 1994. The Open University. � Case Study “Long wave theory” �

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004 Inevitable natural cataclysm or poor risk management? TEMPUS/Erasmus -Mundus: EU-COMET 2

The Indian Ocean Tsunami, December, 2004 � The Indian ocean earthquake disaster has claimed more then 140,000 lives, � More that 1,8 million need food aid and about 5 million are homeless as a result of the undersea earthquake off Sumatra and the tsunami it triggered. � In 2005 it was registered 360 natural disasters that impact on 150 millions individuals, including earthquake in the Pakistan (75000 of victims), several hurricanes in USA (“Katrina” –more that 1200 victims) etc.

Tsunami in the World Source of data: National Geophysical Data Centre, NOAA

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Prelude to the catastrophe : � Lack of attention to the tsunami problem in the Indian ocean coastal States, � A proposal about creation of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System have been turned out in 2002, � Absence of communicative programmes on education and public awareness on rules of safety related with tsunami, � Absence of special training of coastal hotel managers and as result their helplessness for tourists community in critical situation, Low level of scientific background of tsunami problem, � � Absence of clear strategy of risk management.

Was tsunami in the Indian ocean novelty? - No, it wasn’t

Traditional knowledge about tsunami could save life of many people � It is know that in many cases tsunami begins with a fall of the water level. The big wave comes later. In December, 2004 tsunami reach the Northern coast of Sumatra Island in 15 minutes after earthquake. It is difficult to expect that tsunami warning system (even if it existed) was effective due to very short time for decision making. But the nature itself has given a sign -the ocean step back from the beach. A lot of people had lost their own chance due to low level of public awareness.

Tsunami, 2004 had reached coasts of the India and Sri-Lanka in more that one hour’s time. It is more than enough time to give notice of tsunami. Due to the absence of appropriate system nobody did that. The water was swelling and kept coming in the beach. People was looking with interesting on the wave. They didn’t worry, but already they never will be happy!

Introduction into general theory of risk management Methodology of risk management

General approaches to risk management Main definitions Risk is defined by probability that some event, which can take place, will have real or potential negative consequences that can be expressed as damage. EVENT measure of risk RISK = DAMAGE level of risk Risk of event is defined by measure of risk. Risk of damage is defined by extent or level of risk. Events which can give rise to fatal consequences can have different origin : Natural - storm surges, typhoons, tsunamis and other natural disasters Anthropogenic - different accidents at the sea or ground accidents (oil spills, destruction of buildings etc.) Economical - negative change at the market (sudden fluctuations of rate of exchange, instability of prices etc) Political – adoption of unfavorable laws, political instability Damage can be related with negative impact (from the event) on environment, economical or social losses, complete or partial loss of health etc. Damage can be expressed in financial terms.

Methodology of risk assessment Risk assessment in general will be determined as following: P = f (Pa, H, PH, K, B), Where P – is the risk assessment (a probability of some event will take place and it will have some negative impact on the population, environment, building characteristics, industrial buildings etc); Pa – a probability of negative event disaster, counted according to the number of previous events; H- quantitative characteristic of a disaster existence which lead to qualitative destructive processes; PH – a probability of appearance of qualitative destructive processes (probability of event when disaster impact will be more than H); K – coefficient describing probability of inauspicious (negative) coinciding of several natural phenomena (for example, tsunami and tide high water); B – parameter, characterizing state of the coastal zone (density of population, type of an enterprise, type of building, the development level, condition of industrials activity etc.) The main goal of ICM is both the risk assessment and risk management, directed to the less quantity damage by taking decisions and working out measures to mitigate negative consequences.

ICM methodology and risk management Coastal zone is considered as integrated natural and socio –economical system. Any event with negative impact on the coastal zone will influence on all aspects of coastal zone function. Risk management could be defined as risk assessment and following management actions oriented to reduction of probability of damage. To assess risk, an important factor is not only a possibility of negative event, but also its conditions, its geographical situation, an economic development of the coastal zone, density of population and other factors. That’s why the main factors of risk assessment are the measure and extend (level) of risk, describing by means of quantitative characteristics both the probability of negative event appearance and the unfavorable level of the following alternatives.

ICM methodology and risk management Risk management, as a part of the ICM system, must be directed to: Zoning of coastal zone in accordance with results of � risk assessment; � Working out of special legal regulation for developing planning; � Elaboration of plans of disaster consequences liquidation; � Making warning systems; � Special education of coastal habitants, related with study of special rules of behavior during and after different disasters.