Sustainable Groundwater Management Act Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee Meeting March 21, 2019 Frank Bergon Senior Center Madera, CA 1 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Meeting Age Me genda 1. WELCOME AND INTRODUCTIONS 2. APPOINTMENT OF CHAIR AND VICE CHAIR 3. GSA / GSP OVERVIEW 4. PRESENTATION FROM STATE WATER RESOURCES CONTROL BOARD 5. GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY PLAN GSA PROJECTS 6. PRESENTATION ON GROUNDWATER MODELING 7. JOINT MADERA SUBBASIN GSP TIMELINE AND SCHEDULE 8. DISCUSSION AND PUBLIC INPUT 9. OTHER PUBLIC COMMENT 10. RECAP AND OUTLINE NEXT STEPS Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 2: Appointment of Chair and Vice Chair Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 3: GSA/GSP Overview Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Madera S Subbas asin G GSA and G GSP Overview • Seven (7) GSAs Groundwater Sustainability Groundwater Plan (GSP) Sustainability Agency (GSA) • Madera County GSA Madera County GSA • Madera Irrigation District GSA Madera Irrigation District GSA Joint Madera Subbasin GSP City of Madera GSA • City of Madera GSA Madera Water District GSA • Madera Water District GSA Gravelly Ford GSP Gravelly Ford Water District GSA • Gravelly Ford Water District GSA • Root Creek Water District GSA Root Creek GSP Root Creek Water District GSA • New Stone Water District GSA • Four (4) GSPs New Stone GSP New Stone Water District GSA Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
• Total area ~ 348,000 ac • Irrigated (2015) ~ 216,000 ac Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 4: SWRCB Presentation Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 5: GSA Projects Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 6: Presentation on Groundwater Modeling Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Groundwater M r Modeling: Supporting Decisions During the Madera Subbasin GSP Development Presentation to: Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee Nick Watterson, PG Supervising Hydrogeologist March 21, 2019 10 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Outline • Guidance from DWR on Use of Groundwater Modeling in GSP • Overview of Groundwater Modeling Process • Groundwater Model Development in the Madera Subbasin • Model Applications During the GSP Development 11 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Groundwater Modeling for GSP • GSP analyses must employ methods sufficient to evaluate historic/projected future water budgets and undesirable results • Numerical modeling is a tool that can be used for these analyses through simulation of many interrelated factors and processes 12 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
General Modeling Process 1. Establish the model purpose and objectives 7. Conduct sensitivity analysis of model 2. Collect and organize hydrogeologic data Is the model NO adequate for Collect additional the intended hydrogeologic data 3. Develop or Update purpose(s)? Ongoing Conceptual Model Data YES Collection and 8. Run predictive Stakeholder 4. Select appropriate scenarios Outreach model code or existing MAKE model (see Figure 4) DECISIONS 9. Conduct uncertainty 5. Design and Construct analysis of scenarios or Revise the Model 10. Model Output, Document 11. Periodic Model Development, 6. Calibrate the model to Refinement of Models Package Model Files historical data 13 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Numerical Modeling Approach in the Madera Subbasin • Evaluate existing available regional models • Develop local model through refinement of existing regional model (as needed/appropriate) • DWR’s Central Valley model (C2VSim-Fine Grid) as basis for local model refinement • Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) simulates GW, SW, and interactions between SW and GW • Develop and calibrate local model over historical base period (1989-2015) • Use calibrated model to evaluate future scenarios 14 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Single Local Model (MCSim) for Madera and Chowchilla Subbasins • Carved/refined from C2VSim-FG • Single model for more accurate/efficient simulation of interactions between the two subbasins Total al m model ar area: a: ~1,350 sq mi (~850,000 ac) Average e element a area: 0.5 sq mi (~320 acres) Numb mber mo mode del layer ers: 7 aquifer lyrs, 3 aquitard lyrs Calib ibratio ion: 1989-2015; WLs, Streamflow 15 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Regs: Projected Water Budgets • Evaluate future conditions (50 years): Demand and Supply SW and GW Response to Plan Implementation Sust. Indicators (e.g., WLs, SW depletion, subsidence) Climate Change Uncertainty 16 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Modeling BMP -- Groundwater Modeling Process (p. 29) • Develop and run predictive model scenarios: Estimate future conditions under varying o Climatic/hydrologic conditions, and o Projects and management action implementation. Designed to assess the effects of GSP’s projects and management actions on o achieving sustainability goal, and o conditions at five-year interim milestones. Demonstrate sustainability goal maintained over 50- year planning and implementation horizon. • Evaluate uncertainty associated with scenarios. 17 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Evaluation of Different Scenarios Example Simulated Water Levels Higher Relative Groundwater Elevation Future Conditions Scenarios Historical Conditions Lower 2020 2040 2070 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 18 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Role of Groundwater Modeling in GSP Development • Groundwater Models are Tools • Help Understand Potential Outcomes of Situations/Decisions/Actions • Can Inform Decisions – Relative Effects; Relies on Specified Input Parameters • Limitations in Capabilities • Representation of complexity/heterogeneity • Limited calibration data/conditions/variables • Regional vs local – local variability not captured • Relative vs absolute – differences btwn scenarios 19 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Demonstrating Path to Sustainability Projects Implemented Maintained Sustainability Change in Groundwater Storage 2020-2040 Plan 2040+ Maintenance Implementation 2020 2040 2070 20 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Model Decision Support Interactions Quantify Situation Identify Potential Review/ Test Solutions Refine Solutions Solutions w/Model GSAs Outline Path to Sustainability 21 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Questions? 22 Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 7: Joint Madera Subbasin GSP Timeline and Schedule Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Madera T Ma Time meline • Chapters will live on Joint GSP Chapters Public Release Date www.MaderaCountyWater.com as they are released Chapter 1 March 2019 • A complete draft will have a 90 day comment period Chapter 2 April 2019 • Comments will be taken Chapter 3 July 2019 through a comment form available in August Chapter 4 July 2019 • Comments will be able to be Chapter 5 July 2019 emailed, mailed or dropped off Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 8: Discussion of Public Input Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 9: Other Public Input Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
Item 10: Recap and outline next steps Madera Subbasin Coordination Committee – March 21, 2019
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