LOCATING CLIMATE INSECURITY LOCATING CLIMATE INSECURITY Where Are the Vulnerable Places in Where Are the Vulnerable Places in Africa? Africa? Joshua W. Busby, Assistant Professor Joshua W. Busby, Assistant Professor Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) Strauss Center, University of Texas ‐ Austin Strauss Center, University of Texas ‐ Austin Todd G. Smith, PhD Student Todd G. Smith, PhD Student http://ccaps.robertstrausscenter.org/ http://ccaps.robertstrausscenter.org/ Kaiba White, GIS Research Associate Kaiba White, GIS Research Associate
Climate Change and AFRICAN Climate Change and AFRICAN Political Stability (CCAPS) Political Stability (CCAPS) North Texas North Texas 5 ‐ year, $7.6m grant from the 5 ‐ year, $7.6m grant from the Idean Salehyan Idean Salehyan U.S. Department of Defense U.S. Department of Defense Cullen Hendrix Cullen Hendrix Trinity College Trinity College UT UT William and Mary William and Mary Alan Kuperman Alan Kuperman Clionadh Raleigh Clionadh Raleigh Timmons Roberts Timmons Roberts Kate Weaver Kate Weaver Mike Tierney Mike Tierney Ambassador Greg Engle Ambassador Greg Engle Rob Hicks Rob Hicks Southwestern Southwestern Dara Francis Dara Francis Michael Mosser Michael Mosser
Objective Objective To develop sub ‐ national maps of climate change vulnerability To develop sub ‐ national maps of climate change vulnerability Not enough to say that Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change but Not enough to say that Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change but specific places within Ethiopia are vulnerable for particular reasons specific places within Ethiopia are vulnerable for particular reasons Include physical hazards but also socio ‐ economic and political Include physical hazards but also socio ‐ economic and political contributors contributors 3
Vulnerability Vulnerability Fragmented definitions Fragmented definitions IPCC IPCC “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (AR4) adaptive capacity” (AR4) UNISDR UNISDR “a propensity or susceptibility to suffer loss and is associated with a range of “a propensity or susceptibility to suffer loss and is associated with a range of physical, social, political, economic, cultural and institutional characteristics” physical, social, political, economic, cultural and institutional characteristics” Risk = hazard x vulnerability Risk = hazard x vulnerability 4
Other approaches Other approaches Raleigh and Jordan Raleigh and Jordan Levy et al. Levy et al. Brooks, Adger, and Kelly Brooks, Adger, and Kelly Brenkert and Malone Brenkert and Malone 5
Other approaches Other approaches Raleigh and Jordan Raleigh and Jordan (1) GDP per capita, (2) pop. growth by 2050 (3) historic disaster frequency (1) GDP per capita, (2) pop. growth by 2050 (3) historic disaster frequency Too spare Too spare Levy et al. Levy et al. Exposure ‐ (1) Future sea ‐ level rise (2) Temp. change (3) Water scarcity Exposure ‐ (1) Future sea ‐ level rise (2) Temp. change (3) Water scarcity Politics ‐ (1) Political Violence (2) Dangerous neighborhood (3) Weak capacity Politics ‐ (1) Political Violence (2) Dangerous neighborhood (3) Weak capacity No maps or aggregate measures No maps or aggregate measures Missing community vulnerability, historic data Missing community vulnerability, historic data 6
Other approaches Other approaches Brooks, Adger, and Kelly Brooks, Adger, and Kelly Monte Carlo simulations of disaster mortality Monte Carlo simulations of disaster mortality 11 indicators, (1) education (2) health (3) governance 11 indicators, (1) education (2) health (3) governance Many highly correlated Many highly correlated No exposure No exposure Brenkert and Malone, PNNL, VRIM Brenkert and Malone, PNNL, VRIM Disaster mortality, 17 variables Disaster mortality, 17 variables (1) Sensitivity ( ‐ ) ‐‐ food security, water resources, settlement/infrastructure, (1) Sensitivity ( ‐ ) ‐‐ food security, water resources, settlement/infrastructure, human health, ecosystem human health, ecosystem (2) Adaptive capacity (+) ‐‐ environmental capacity, economic capacity, and (2) Adaptive capacity (+) ‐‐ environmental capacity, economic capacity, and human and civic resources human and civic resources No governance No governance Little exposure Little exposure Strange proxies Strange proxies 7
Our Approach Our Approach Four Baskets or Processes Four Baskets or Processes Physical Exposure (25%) Physical Exposure (25%) Community/Household Vulnerability (25%) Community/Household Vulnerability (25%) Governance and Political Violence (25%) Governance and Political Violence (25%) Population (25%) Population (25%) 8
Physical Exposure Physical Exposure Disasters Disasters Cyclone surge frequency Cyclone surge frequency Cyclone wind frequency Cyclone wind frequency Flood frequency Flood frequency Drought frequency Drought frequency Wildfires frequency Wildfires frequency Future Vulnerability Future Vulnerability Low ‐ elevation coastal zones Low ‐ elevation coastal zones 9
Household/Community Household/Community Education Education Literacy rate Literacy rate School enrollment School enrollment Health Health Maternal mortality Maternal mortality Life expectancy Life expectancy Daily necessities Daily necessities Dietary energy consumption Dietary energy consumption % access to clean water % access to clean water Access to health care Access to health care Per capita spending on health Per capita spending on health Nursing and midwifery density 10 Nursing and midwifery density
Governance and Political Violence Governance and Political Violence Governance (80%) Governance (80%) Government Effectiveness Government Effectiveness Voice and Accountability Voice and Accountability Global Integration Global Integration Political Stability Political Stability Volatility in regime Volatility in regime Years since last major Years since last major change change Political Violence (20%) Political Violence (20%) Atrocities Atrocities 11
Population Population Population Density Population Density 12
AGGREGATE MEASURE AGGREGATE MEASURE Physical Exposure Physical Exposure Household/Community Household/Community Vulnerability Vulnerability Governance and Political Governance and Political Violence Violence Population Density Population Density 13
Findings Findings Horn Horn Western Ethiopia Western Ethiopia S. Somalia S. Somalia Sahel Sahel S. Sudan S. Sudan CAR CAR Chad Chad Central Africa Central Africa N. and S. DRC N. and S. DRC Rwanda Rwanda pockets Tanzania pockets Tanzania Southern Africa Southern Africa E. Zimbabwe E. Zimbabwe Swaziland Swaziland Madagascar Madagascar West Africa West Africa Central and Coastal Nigeria Central and Coastal Nigeria Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire 14
Extensions Extensions Additional Indicators Additional Indicators Geo ‐ referenced data for household/community vulnerability and governance Geo ‐ referenced data for household/community vulnerability and governance Projections of future climate change vulnerability Projections of future climate change vulnerability Infrastructure data on roads and airports Infrastructure data on roads and airports Projections of future population density Projections of future population density Agriculture and commodity dependence Agriculture and commodity dependence Ethnic political marginalization Ethnic political marginalization Civil wars Civil wars Strategic significance to the United States Strategic significance to the United States Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis Change weights, change break ‐ points Change weights, change break ‐ points Identify country ‐ level sources of influence Identify country ‐ level sources of influence Statistical Analysis Statistical Analysis Disaster Mortality and Economic Losses Disaster Mortality and Economic Losses Case Studies and Fieldwork Case Studies and Fieldwork 15
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