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Observed and Expected Impacts of Climate Change and Response Strategies Lin Erda Lin Erda Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science 1951 2004 temperature distribution

  1. Observed and Expected Impacts of Climate Change and Response Strategies Lin Erda Lin Erda Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science

  2. 1951 ～ ～ 2004 temperature distribution ～ ～ ���� 中 中 � 高 排放情景 � ���� 中 中 � 低 排放情景 � 中 中 高 高 高 排放情景 排放情景 排放情景 中 中 低 低 低 排放情景 排放情景 排放情景 of China �� � �� � 时段 时段 时段 时段 温度增量 温度增量 温度增量 温度增量 降水变化 降水变化 降水变化 降水变化 降水变 降水变 降水变 降水变 � ° ° �� ��� ��� 化 ��� ��� ° ° 温度增量 温度增量 温度增量 温度增量 � ° ° �� 化 化 化 ���� ���� ° ° ����� ���� ��� ��� ���� ��� ��� ���� ����� ���� ��� ��� ���� ��� ��� ���� ����� ���� ���� ��� ���� ���� ��� ���� Ding YH Past and future temperature changes Xu Yl 75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 Simulated annual increase ( ° ° C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under ° ° SRES A2 & B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990 )( Xu Yl)

  3. Current and Future Precipitation 1956 ～ ～ ～ ～ 2002 precipitation and Change Distribution in China ( Ding YH) Simulated average change in rainfall (mm/day) for 2071–2079 under SRES A2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990) ( Xu Yl)

  4. ��������� !�"#��$%�� �����&'��"&���"!(! ��!)��'*%�+$ +*���&,�-� �*�"#���%&�� +&,�*�,%##�*�& �! �.%$%/� %"&�!��&�*%"!��&,��"**�!�"&,%&'���%!!%"&�!��&�*%"!� RCP RCP3 RCP4.5 SRES B2(A1B) A2 Global Warming after 2 ℃ 2.5 ℃ 3 ℃ 3.6 ℃ 2050 Ecosystem aggravating coral Suitable area for forest would Vulnerable areas in NE, S, and SW Dry area would 30% ； ���� bleaching in South decrease largely in Northeast extend significantly, NE’s eco- extend ��������� ������ China Sea, suffering China; ecosystem vulnerability continues seriously; in ������� adverse impacts on vulnerability getting higher in ecosystems of South to Yangtze river costal biodiversity Northwest and Tibet; panda middle vulnerability happen; habitat decrease significantly; Ecologic evolution become more; NEP reach a peak at 2050 Jilin and Liaoning provinces’ then going down then going down ecosystems change into C source ecosystems change into C source Agriculture Agricultural disasters The yield of wheat and maize The yield of wheat and maize would Agro-disaster get increase ， ������� would decrease 11% 、 ��� decrease20% 、 "#� ���������� ， more ， ���������� ������� �������� �� ���������� ， ���������� ��� ���������� ��� ������ ����� ���� ； ��� ����� �������� ������� ���� �������� �������� ������ ����� ���� ； ��� ����� �� ����� �� ��������� ���� ����� ��� ����� �� ���� ����� ��������� ���� ����� ���������"� ； ���� �������� �������� �� ��������� �������� �� ； ���� ����� �� ���� ##��� �!� ， ����� �������� ����� �� ���� ���������� ����� ��� ����� ��� ����� �!� ��������� ����� Water Resources Temperature may raise Run off of Yellow and Increased run off of Song, Yellow, Yangtze and Pearl rivers 1 ℃ �� ������ �������� ， getting less of 50% than Under B2 ， ���� �������� ��������+ ��� Songhua river increase 11%- ������ �� ���������� 24% ， ��&'���(�&���&)����& ������� ����� ����� ���� ��� �� ������� �# ， ���,� �� ����� ��$����� ����� ��������&*���# ； ��& ������ ， ����� ������ �������� "������ ； ����� ��� ��� �������� %����� ； ���������&���&������&����& -���� ��� ���� �� ���������� 。 ���&�����&��&��������+& ���������&�&��������� （ .��&����+&.�&'�������+&/�&0������ ， "��1 ）

  5. Thanks for Thanks for Thanks for Thanks for your your your your your your your your attention attention attention attention

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