Le Lega gacies cies of C of Con onfli flict: ct: Evide Evidenc nce e from from the the Po Pove verty rty an and d So Social Exc cial Exclusion lusion Su Survey rvey 201 2012 Armagh 14 May 2014 Mike Tomlinson Queen’s University Belfast www.poverty.ac.uk
What happened? Prevalence of each type of experience Intensity of experience When worst experience took place To whom did it happen? Gender Community background Age Households What are the impacts? Unemployment Deprivation Poor mental and physical health
What happened? Prevalence of each type of experience Did you experience…? Someone killed % of adults No-one close was killed 65.2 A close friend was killed 10.7 A close relative was killed 10.0 Someone else you knew personally was killed 24.7 Intensity of experience Did you experience…? Someone killed % of adults Either close friend OR relative was killed 17.1 Two or more of close friend, close relative and other 6.7
What happened? Prevalence of each type of experience Did you experience…? Someone physically injured % of adults No-one you knew was injured 67.0 A close friend was injured 10.7 A close relative was injured 11.6 Someone else you knew personally was injured 20.5 Intensity of experience Did you experience…? Someone physically injured % of adults Either close friend OR relative was killed 17.1 Two or more of close friend, close relative and other 6.7
What happened? Prevalence of each type of experience Did you witness…? Violent event % of adults No Troubles event 43.4 Rioting 35.6 A bomb explosion 33.0 Gunfire 22.4 Someone being assaulted 19.6 Other serious violence 10.0 A murder 3.0
What happened? Prevalence of each type of experience Other events…? % of adults Know someone who spent time in prison 19.0 House searched by police/army 8.8 Move house due to attack, intimidation, threats… 4.4 Leave job due to attack, intimidation, threats… 3.7
What happened? When worst experience took place 20 % 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
To whom did it happen? Gender 50 Close friend killed 45 Close relative killed Someone else killed 40 Self injured Close friend injured 35 Close relative injured Someone else injured 30 Women Witnessed bomb Witnessed murder 25 Witnessed gunfire Witnessed rioting 20 Witnessed assault Witnessed other 15 serious violence Known prisoner 10 House searched Moved house 5 Left job Known prisoner 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Men
To whom did it happen? Community background 40 Close friend killed Close relative killed 35 Someone else killed Self injured 30 Close friend injured Close relative injured Someone else injured 25 Protestants Witnessed bomb Witnessed murder 20 Witnessed gunfire Witnessed rioting 15 Witnessed assault Witnessed other serious violence House searched 10 Moved house Left job Known prisoner 5 0 0 10 20 30 40 Catholics
To whom did it happen? Age: 45-64 yr olds compared to 16-34 yr olds Risk Ratio Risk Ratio CFK 3.7 Pris 0.8 CRK 1.5 PrisS 1.8 SelfI 1.6 PrisCF 2.1 CFI 3.0 PrisCR 0.5 CRI 1.7 HSE 2.5 WitB 3.9 MVH 1.7 WitM 3.2 MVJ 3.3 WitG 3.2 WitR 1.2 WitO 0.8 WitA 0.7
To whom did it happen? Households Pensioner Single Non- Single Single Adults + adults non- pensioner All adults Pensioner parent children only pensioner adults CFK 9.1 11.6 16.2 14.2 9.3 6.5 10.7 SelfI 5.5 2 9.9 2.7 2.9 3.6 3.9 WitM 2.3 3.4 5.8 2.7 1.7 2.5 3
What are the impacts? Unemployment Deprivation % 1. NONE 2. KO 3. IO 4. K+I Up to 12 months unemployed in 6.4 7.1 11.5 5.0 last 5 years 12 months or more 9.8 7.7 10.9 10.5 unemployment in last five years Deprivation 3+ 30.2 24.2 39.4 38.2
Expe Experien rience ce of Violenc of Violence e Ind Index ex (EV (EVI) I) Experience of someone killed in Troubles: Spent time in prison because of Troubles: A close friend/s was killed Yourself A close relative/s was killed Close friends Someone else that you knew Close relatives personally was killed Other relatives Experience of someone injured in Troubles: Others I was physically injured Whether house ever searched by police A close friend was physically injured Number of times house searched A close relative was physically injured Whether moved house due to attack, Someone else you know personally intimidation, threats or harassment was physically injured Witnessed particular events in Troubles: Whether left a job because of an attack, A Bomb explosion intimidation, threats or harassment A murder Gunfire 21 indicators combined into single scale Rioting (0-100). Values range from 0 to 82.5. Someone being assaulted Other serious violence
What are the impacts? Unemployment Proportion of adults with 3+ Deprivation Deprivation Extreme experience High experience Moderate experience R² = 0.9658 Low experience Slight experience No experience 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
What are the impacts? Poor mental and physical health: Life Satisfaction 0 to 4 5 to 6 7 to 10 Ave rating GB 2012-2013 All 5.75 17.22 77.03 7.45 Disabled 12.57 24.33 63.09 6.82 Unemployed 14.10 28.77 57.14 6.58 PSE-NI 2012 CFK 15.7 21.4 62.9 6.89 SelfI 17.8 24.5 57.8 6.45 CFI 12.3 19.3 68.4 7.03 WitM 23.3 18 58.7 6.6 No Troubles experience 5.4 13.6 81.1 7.68
What are the impacts? Poor mental and physical health: Life Satisfaction 8.000 7.900 7.800 7.700 7.600 7.500 7.400 7.300 7.200 7.100 R² = 0.944 7.000 6.900 6.800 6.700 6.600 6.500 6.400 6.300 6.200 6.100 6.000 None Low Moderate High
What are the impacts? Poor mental and physical health: General Health Very good/good health by Bad/very bad health by Troubles experience Troubles experience 90.00 18.00 R² = 0.9188 80.00 16.00 R² = 0.9871 70.00 14.00 60.00 12.00 50.00 10.00 40.00 8.00 30.00 6.00 20.00 4.00 10.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 None Low Moderate High None Low Moderate High
What are the impacts? Poor mental and physical health: General Health Very bad/bad health by Troubles Very good/good health by experience Troubles experience 25 90 R² = 0.9136 R² = 0.8213 80 20 70 60 15 50 40 10 30 20 5 10 0 0
What are the impacts? Poor mental health Proportion of adults with GHQ-12, 4+ scores Extreme experience High experience Moderate experience R² = 0.9525 Low experience Slight experience No experience 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
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