BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy Thursday, May 12 – Washington, DC Scan to download this presentation or to receive link via e-mail
Introduct ctio ion Susan L. Karamanian Associate Dean BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy The George Washington University Law School
BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy Thursday, May 12 – Washington, DC Scan to download this presentation or to receive link via e-mail
Luncheon at Faculty lty Conference ce Center Alvir Hoffmann Deputy CEO and Executive Vice-President of FEBRABAN BRAZILIAN HIGH-TECH LITIGATION: Law, Business & Policy The George Washington University Law School
Brazil: Economic Outlook, credit market and banking sector Alvir Hoffmann Deputy CEO / Vice President
Economic Activity 10,0 -8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 (YoY %) GDP 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 2007.I 2007.III 2008.I 2008.III 2009.I 2009.III 2010.I Source: IBGE 2010.III 2011.I 2011.III 2012.I 2012.III 2013.I 2013.III 2014.I 2014.III 2015.I 2015.III -5,0 -4,0 -3,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 (YoY %) Market Expectations* - GDP 11/02/2015 26/02/2015 13/03/2015 28/03/2015 12/04/2015 27/04/2015 2016 12/05/2015 27/05/2015 11/06/2015 Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05) 26/06/2015 11/07/2015 26/07/2015 2017 10/08/2015 25/08/2015 09/09/2015 24/09/2015 09/10/2015 24/10/2015 08/11/2015 23/11/2015 08/12/2015 23/12/2015 07/01/2016 22/01/2016 06/02/2016 21/02/2016 07/03/2016 22/03/2016 06/05/16 06/05/16 06/04/2016 6 -3,86 21/04/2016 0,50 06/05/2016
Economic Activity CPI decomposition CPI ac. in 12 months (ac. in 12 months %) (YoY %) 19% Focus IPCA 18% 06/05 12,0 IPCA - monitored prices 17% IPCA - tradable 16% IPCA - nontradable 15% 10,0 14% mai/16 13% abr/16 9,04 jul/16 9,28 12% 8,0 8,16 11% dez/16 9,95% 10% 7,00 9,11% 9% 9,28% 6,0 out/17 8% 7,42% 5,82 7% 6% 4,0 5% 4% 2,0 3% 2% 1% 0,0 0% dez/11 mar/12 dez/12 mar/13 dez/13 mar/14 dez/14 mar/15 dez/15 mar/16 dez/16 mar/17 set/11 jun/12 set/12 jun/13 set/13 jun/14 set/14 jun/15 set/15 jun/16 set/16 jun/17 set/17 abr/12 abr/13 abr/14 abr/15 abr/16 out/11 out/12 out/13 out/14 out/15 Source: IBGE Sources: BCB (Focus of 06/05), & IBGE 7
Economic Activity 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 (YoY %) Market Expectations* - CPI 11/02/2015 26/02/2015 13/03/2015 28/03/2015 12/04/2015 27/04/2015 2016 12/05/2015 27/05/2015 11/06/2015 Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05) 26/06/2015 11/07/2015 26/07/2015 2017 10/08/2015 25/08/2015 09/09/2015 24/09/2015 09/10/2015 24/10/2015 08/11/2015 23/11/2015 08/12/2015 23/12/2015 07/01/2016 22/01/2016 06/02/2016 21/02/2016 07/03/2016 22/03/2016 06/04/2016 21/04/2016 5,62 7,00 06/05/2016 10,0 11,0 12,0 13,0 14,0 15,0 16,0 (YoY % – end-of-period) Market Expectations* - Selic 8,0 9,0 11/02/2015 26/02/2015 13/03/2015 28/03/2015 12/04/2015 27/04/2015 2016 12/05/2015 27/05/2015 11/06/2015 Source: BCB (*Focus of 06/05) 26/06/2015 11/07/2015 26/07/2015 2017 10/08/2015 25/08/2015 09/09/2015 24/09/2015 09/10/2015 24/10/2015 08/11/2015 23/11/2015 08/12/2015 23/12/2015 07/01/2016 22/01/2016 06/02/2016 21/02/2016 07/03/2016 22/03/2016 8 06/04/2016 21/04/2016 11,75 13,00 06/05/2016
Economic Activity CA deficit & TB International Reserves / CA (ac. in 12 months – USD M*) (ac. in 12 months) 10,0 105.000 50.000 46.400 9,0 95.000 40.000 8,0 85.000 7,0 75.000 30.000 6,0 65.000 20.000 5,0 55.000 4,0 45.000 10.000 3,0 35.000 20.000 0 2,0 25.000 1,0 15.000 -10.000 mai/14 set/14 nov/14 dez/14 mai/15 set/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/14 fev/14 mar/14 abr/14 jun/14 jul/14 ago/14 out/14 jan/15 fev/15 mar/15 abr/15 jun/15 jul/15 ago/15 out/15 jan/16 fev/16 mar/16 2016* 0,0 dez/11 fev/12 abr/12 jun/12 ago/12 out/12 dez/12 fev/13 abr/13 jun/13 ago/13 out/13 dez/13 fev/14 abr/14 jun/14 ago/14 out/14 dez/14 fev/15 abr/15 jun/15 ago/15 out/15 dez/15 fev/16 Current Account Deficit Trade Balance (right) Source: BCB / CA = Current Account Source: BCB / CA = Current Account 9
Economic Activity Federal Tax Revenue Gross Debt and Primary Result (ac. in 12 months – prices of mar/16) (% GDP) 1.410 83,0 3,5 3,3 80,0 2,9 80,0 1.390 2,5 77,0 2,6 2,2 2,0 74,4 1.370 74,0 1,8 1,5 71,0 1.350 68,0 R$ Bi 0,5 66,2 65,0 1.330 58,9 62,0 -0,5 1.310 59,3 59,0 -1,1 -0,6 56,0 54,8 56,0 -1,5 1.290 -1,7 51,8 53,3 53,0 -1,9 51,3 1.270 50,0 -2,5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017* 1.250 jul/13 nov/13 jan/14 mai/14 jul/14 nov/14 jan/15 mai/15 jul/15 nov/15 jan/16 set/13 mar/14 set/14 mar/15 set/15 mar/16 Gross Debt Primary Result Sources: Receita Federal, BCB e Min. Fazenda Sources: Receita Federal, BCB e Min. Fazenda 10
Economic Activity Ibovespa Index 40.000 45.000 50.000 55.000 60.000 65.000 jul/14 set/14 nov/14 Source: BM&FBovespa jan/15 mar/15 mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16 2,00 2,50 3,00 3,50 4,00 4,50 (/USD) Exchange Rate jul/14 ago/14 set/14 out/14 nov/14 dez/14 jan/15 fev/15 Source: BCB mar/15 abr/15 mai/15 jun/15 jul/15 ago/15 set/15 out/15 nov/15 dez/15 jan/16 11 fev/16 mar/16 abr/16
Economic Activity Credit Default Swap 1 YR Interest Curve (points) (Pré-DI BM&F - %) 16,5 400 16,0 350 15,5 300 15,0 250 14,5 200 14,0 150 13,5 100 13,0 50 mai-15 jun-15 jul-15 ago-15 set-15 out-15 nov-15 dez-15 jan-16 fev-16 mar-16 abr-16 mai-15 jun-15 jul-15 nov-15 dez-15 jan-16 fev-16 mar-16 abr-16 ago-15 set-15 out-15 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 12
Credit Market Credit to GDP (%) 54,7 54,5 52,6 50,3 46,5 44,1 42,6 39,7 34,7 dez/07 dez/08 dez/09 dez/10 dez/11 dez/12 dez/13 dez/14 dez/15 Source: BCB 13
Credit Market Credit to GDP Household Credit by modality (%) (YoY %) 30 35% 30,5% 26 30% 25% 22 20% 15,5% 15% 12,6% 18 10% 7,6% 13,2% 14 5% 6,3% 0% mai-14 jul-14 nov-14 jan-15 mai-15 jul-15 nov-15 jan-16 10 mar-14 set-14 mar-15 set-15 mar-16 dez/07 dez/08 dez/09 dez/10 dez/11 dez/12 dez/13 dez/14 dez/15 Non-Earmarked Earmarked Payroll-deducted personal loans Personal Credit Real estate financing Source: BCB Source: BCB 14
Credit Market Non-performing Loans (%) 6,0 4,5 3,0 1,5 dez/11 jun/12 dez/12 jun/13 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 Total Nonfinancial Corporations Households Source: BCB 15
Credit Market Credit Quality & Provisions 200 6,0 5,5 180 5,0 160 4,5 140 4,0 120 3,5 3,0 100 2,5 80 2,0 60 1,5 40 1,0 mar/14 mai/14 jul/14 set/14 nov/14 jan/15 mar/15 mai/15 jul/15 set/15 nov/15 jan/16 mar/16 Nonperforming Portfolio - R$ Bi - left axis Provisions - R$ bi - left axis Provisions (%) - right axis Nonperforming Loans (%) - right axis Source: BCB 16
Banking Sector Regulatory capital to Capital / Assets risk-weighted assets (%) (%) 14.0 18,0 16,7 16,3 16,4 16,1 15,5 12.0 16,0 14,0 10.0 12,3 12,1 11,8 11,5 12,0 11,0 8.0 10,0 8,0 6.0 6,0 4.0 4,0 2,0 2.0 - dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 0.0 Austrália França Índia China Itália Rússia Japão Coreia do Sul EUA Reino Unido África do Sul Canadá Argentina México Brasil (2) Indonésia Turquia Alemanha Common Equity Tier1 Ratio Tier1 Ratio Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Source: BCB Sources: FMI ; BCB (2) 17
Banking Sector Net Profit x ROE (BRL bi) (%) 90,0 25 NP Private Banks NP SO Banks 80,0 ROE Adjusted 20 70,0 ROE 60,0 15 50,0 40,0 10 30,0 20,0 5 10,0 0,0 0 jun/10 jun/11 jun/12 jun/13 ´dez/09 dez/10 dez/11 dez/12 dez/13 jun/14 dez/14 jun/15 dez/15 Source: BCB 18
Banking Sector Short-term liquidity Long-term liquidity (Liquid Assets / Cash Out on Stress) (Stable Funding Available / Stable Funding Required) Stable Funding Available - R$ mil Stable Funding Required - R$ mil Structural Liquidity Ratio (%) - proxy NSFR 4.500.000.000 120% 700.000 2,5 4.000.000.000 600.000 100% 2,0 3.500.000.000 500.000 3.000.000.000 80% 1,5 400.000 R$ Bi 2.500.000.000 300.000 60% 1,0 2.000.000.000 200.000 1.500.000.000 40% 0,5 100.000 1.000.000.000 20% 0 0,0 500.000.000 jan/12 jun/12 nov/12 abr/13 set/13 fev/14 jul/14 dez/14 mai/15 0 0% Liquid Assets Stressed Cash Flow Liquidity Ratio (proxy LCR) Source: BCB Source: BCB 19
Thank You! alvir.hoffmann@febraban.org.br
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