Laura M. Baughman President The Trade Partnership Washington, DC - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Laura M. Baughman President The Trade Partnership Washington, DC Presentation to the American Wire Producers Association September 27. 2018

CREATING LEVERAGE • Imposed ed s steel eel/aluminum t tariffs t to ince ncentivize e U.S. t trading partner ers t to get China to cut cut s steel eel over erca capacity • Im Impo posing 10% and nd 25% 25% tariffs o on n U.S. i imports f from Chin China to o for orce changes i in I IPR a and t technolog logy t transfer p poli olicies • Threa eaten ening Sect ection 232 a 232 act ction o on n motor v veh ehicles es a and nd parts t to o push C Canada, Mexico o o on NAF AFTA; E Europ ope on on car tariffs • Threa eaten ening t to o ter erminate e NA NAFTA 1 1.0 t 0 to pres ess C Cana nada a and nd Me Mexico co – and C Con ongress? -- -- on on NAF AFTA 2 2.0

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN TARIFFS ARE IMPOSED? U.S. U.S. Winners Losers DOWNSTR TREAM I M INDUSTR TRIES: PROTECTE TED I INDUSTR TRY: Output Output DECLINES, employment UP, employment UP DECLINES OTHE HER S SECTOR ORS: indirect OTHE HER S SECTOR ORS: indirect spending from protected spending from downstream companies and workers companies and workers INCREASES and jobs elsewhere DECLINES and jobs elsewhere in in economy (suppliers, the economy (suppliers, restaurants) INCREASE restaurants) DECLINE EXPORTI TING I INDUSTR TRIES: Output DECLINES, employment DECLINES OTHER SECTORS: indirect GAINS – LOSSES = ??? spending from exporting Companies and workers DECLINES, jobs elsewhere in economy (suppliers, restaurants) DECLINE

STEEL/ALUMINUM 232 TARIFFS + RETALIATION Steel/ eel/alu lum j jobs +26,280 Steel c cons nsum uming ng i indus ustry j jobs bs* -91 91,61 614 Oth Other s sectors -337 37,111 Total tal n net j t job impacts ts -402,4 ,445 16 jo job l loss sses for e every st steel/aluminum g gain * Beverages, pe petroleum/ m/coal pr l products, fabricated me metals ls, mo motor v vehicles a and nd pa parts, o other transpo portation e n equipme pment nt, non-electrical e equ quipment m machinery, c const struction on

CHINA 301 TARIFFS ON $50B + RETALIATION Steel eel/al alum job jobs +2, +2,378 Steel eel c cons nsuming ind ing indus ustry job jobs* -30, 0,30 303 Other er s sec ectors -105 05,75 751 Total al ne net jo job im impac acts -133,676 * * Bevera rages, p , petroleum/coal p products, fabri rica cated m metals, motor vehicl cles a and parts, o , other r transpo portation e n equipme pment nt, non-electrical e equ quipment m machinery, c const struction on

CHINA 301 TARIFFS ON $517B + RETALIATION Steel eel/al alum job jobs -508 08 Steel eel c cons nsuming ind ing indus ustry job jobs* -96, 6,86 863 Other er s sec ectors -357,426 426 Total al ne net jo job im impac acts -454, 54,796 96 * Beverage ges, p , pet etroleum/ m/coal p products, , fabricated m met etals, m , motor v vehicles es and parts, , ot other t trans nsportation on equipment nt, n non-electrical e equ quipmen ent m machiner ery, , constru ruction

MOTOR VEHICLE & PARTS 232 Trad ade e Par artner nership ip, tar arif iffs o onl nly Total al ne net jo job im impac acts -116,871 71 Peter erson, n, tar arif iffs o onl nly Total al ne net jo job im impac acts -195, 95,00 000 Peter erson, n, tar arif iffs + + retal aliat iatio ion Total l ne net jo job im impac acts -624, 4,00 000

TERMINATING NAFTA 1.0 Steel eel/al alum job jobs -6,876 76 Steel eel c cons nsuming ind ing indus ustry job jobs* -194,617 17 Other er s sec ectors -1,608 608,095 095 Total al ne net jo job im impac acts -1,809 809,588 588 * Beverage ges, p , pet etroleum/ m/coal p products, , fabricated m met etals, m , motor v vehicles es and parts, , ot other t trans nsportation on equipment nt, n non-electrical e equ quipmen ent m machiner ery, , constru ruction

CONCLUSIONS Levera rage i is expensive. How lon w long a are re y you ou pre prepared to w wait to se see if i f it wor orks? s?