Objective Keys to Successful New Congressional and Legislative Maps for the 2010s Redistricting A Member’s Perspective Avoid or Survive the Courts Senator Larry Pogemiller Minnesota Chicago, Illinois October 25, 2009 2 Why? Timetable The Deadlines We Face P “Redistricting tends to bring out the worst in judges” P Today - October 25, 2009 P For legislators, the courts mean . . . uncertainty . . . risk P November 2010 < Election Day - political landscape set P This is a political process – it is only an issue of who does < Race to courthouse begins the politics . . . how visible they are . . . and how many people are involved P March 2011 - population data arrives P Draw plans P November 2012 - election under new plans 3 4 Things States Need to Do Mapping Deadlines When will you do each of the following? What are yours? (see red book Appendix A) P Budget P Constitution P Organize a redistricting office P Statutes P Educate the members and other P Court mandates stakeholders P Election cycle P Adopt districting principles P Draw plans P Deal with court challenges 5 6
Organization Educating the Stakeholders Who will draw the plans? Goals P Committees in each house? P Develop a “common” reality based on facts P Joint committee? P Develop realistic expectations < Moving people through the 5-step grieving P Commission? process < Authority in each state - red book Appendix B – Sadness < Commission options - red book Appendices C & D – Anger – Denial – Fear – Acceptance < Not everyone can have a perfect district (this is a zero-sum game) 7 8 Knowing the Stakeholders Population Shifts Since 2000 P Incumbents P Rural to urban? < Majority < Minority P Central city to inner-ring suburbs? P “Members in waiting” P Gentrification of central city? P Governor P Inner-ring suburbs to outer-ring suburbs? P Citizen groups P Suburban to ex-urban? P Political parties P Racial and language minority populations? P Average citizens P Press 9 10 Federal Requirements Strategic Considerations Who will draw the plans? P Equal population P There will be a map < 10% not a safe harbor - Larios v. Cox < Yours, or the Court’s? P Fair opportunity for racial and language P Is your partner willing to negotiate? minorities – Voting Rights Act P Is the offer so bad for you < Majority of voting age population - Bartlett v. < You’d rather be governed by a court order than Strickland negotiate an agreement? < You’d risk the uncertainty of a plan drawn by a court? 11 12
Strategic Considerations Strategic Considerations Realities Objectives P Treat people honestly P For less than $1,000 anyone can draw a plan P Share as much information as possible < Individual members < Holding your cards to the vest will not work < Lobbying groups < Governor P Maintain a calming influence < Newspapers < Be positive P Automated redistricting by “good < Joyfull . . . but serious government” groups – “take the politics out” P Minimize unnecessary stress P Try principled negotiations < Read Getting to Yes by Roger Fischer of Harvard 13 14 State Requirements—What are Yours? Adopting Districting Principles Goals “Traditional Districting Principles” Shaw v. Reno (1993) P Create an atmosphere of fairness Red Book, Chapter 5 P Get stakeholders to buy in P Contiguity? P Compactness? P Nest house districts within senate districts? P Preserve political subdivisions? P Preserve communities of interest? P Protect incumbents? < Preserve cores of prior districts? < Avoid contests between incumbents? P Politically competitive? 15 16 Should You Adopt Any More? Drawing Plans State Districting Principles Learning from the Members Red Book, Table 8 & Appendix E P If a district must grow, where? P Disadvantages < May restrict the drafters’ freedom P If a district must shrink, where? < Ignoring principles may hurt plan in court P Whose seats are safe, whose are marginal? P Advantages P Who will be retiring? < Members and stakeholders learn the rules of the P Where would new candidates do best? game < Members accept the rules P What are “political” objectives of critical < Adhering to principles will help defend plan in stakeholders? court P Maintain confidentiality 17 18
Drawing Plans Survival Techniques P First drafts of a plan P Don’t play games < Draw minority districts first < This is serious business < Work in regions < It is intensely personal < Merge regions into a statewide plan < The final district effect—last one drawn is ugly P Exercise – to manage stress and develop thick skin P Resolve conflicts between members P Be self-deprecative – remember the humor P Hold public hearings on plans of human frailties P Work with the other body P Maintain perspective P Get the governor’s signature 19 20 Benediction Savor the Honor (Even if it May Not Seem Like it at the Time) P Highest form of policy making P What did one civil war veteran say? P Foundation of representative democracy P Treat it with respect and humility P Remember, this is personal < 5-10% will hate you – lifelong enemies < 90-95% will be ingrates P Avoid cynicism P Remember a loved one – you want them to be proud of you and democracy 21 22 As the man said after having been tarred, feathered, and ridden out of town on a rail – “If it hadn’t been for the honor of the thing, I’d rather have walked.” Abraham Lincoln 23
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