Key Findings from the 2013-14 Post Deyr Seasonal Food Security and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Information for Better Livelihoods Key Findings from the 2013-14 Post Deyr Seasonal Food Security and Nutrition Assessment in Somalia 3 February 2014, Nairobi

FSNAU Post Deyr 2013/14 Seasonal Assessment Timeline : November-December (for Field work) Coverage: All parts of Somalia; however, assessment methodology adapted depending on the security condition: � teleconference with key informants (pink areas on the map) � use of partners and rapid assessment techniques for nutrition surveys; and � assessment in urban areas was done using analyses of secondary data due to funding constraints. Scope: Food security and nutrition assessment of rural livelihoods, urban livelihoods and Internally Displaced Persons Process: (1)FSNAU-led assessment with the participation of Technical staff of other UN agencies, partners and government institutions (2) Regional analysis workshops in Garowe & Hargeisa With partners and government (3) All team analysis workshop in Hargeisa focal persons (4) Technical vetting in Nairobi (with partners) (5) Presentation to Government authorities (Mogadishu, Garowe and Hargeisa) ( 6) Presentation to other stakeholders in Nairobi and technical release (today) (7) Public dissemination (technical release, food security and nutrition outlook; comprehensive technical reports)

Key Message Highlights � Nearly 860, 000 people remain acutely food insecure and require urgent humanitarian assistance over the next six ( ‘ 000s) month period – a majority of them are IDPs (75%) � Over 2 million additional people beyond those requiring urgent assistance are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2); their food security remains fragile and vulnerable to any major shock that could push them back to Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) � 203,000 children under 5 years of age are acutely malnourished of which 51,000 are severely malnourished and face a higher risk of death; a majority of the malnourished are found among non-IDP populations in South-Central Somalia � Multi-sectoral efforts to address the underlying and basic Areas of major concern are: IDPs; mostly rural and some causes of malnutrition are critical and must be supported urban populations experiencing food security crisis in by continued humanitarian action Sanaag, Sool, Bari, Nugaal, North and South Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiran, and Middle Shabelle as well as Middle � Lifesaving humanitarian assistance and livelihood and Lower Juba regions. Other areas (mostly in South and support remain vitally important between now and June Central Somalia) that have in the past experienced 2014 to help food insecure populations meet their repeated food security crises and persistently high levels immediate food needs. of acute malnutrition also remain a major concern.

Presentation Outline • Sectoral Analysis – Abdullahi Khalif, National Technical Manager, FEWS NET Somalia • Nutrition Analysis – Nina Dodd, Nutrition Technical Manager, FSNAU • Integrated Food Security Analysis – Tamara Nanitashvili, Food Security Technical Manager, FSNAU • Summary Results and Key Messages - Daniel Molla, Chief Technical Advisor, FSNAU

SECTORAL ANALYSIS • Civil Insecurity • Climate • Markets • Livestock • Agriculture

Civil Insecurity Conflict in most part of the southern regions of the country remained active: � Suicide attacks, hand grenades, Rocket Propelled grenades, mortar attacks, targeted attacks on prominent individuals mainly in Mogadishu � In the Jubas and Shabelles, many forms of conflict have increased since July 2013 � In Bay and Bakool, armed confrontations between insurgent and government forces backed by troops from the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) emerged in November. � In Hiraan, conflict and trade restrictions have affected market access � Conflict in North of Jowhar town between two clans Continued insecurity poses a major challenge to food security, especially in South-Central Somalia Assumptions � Insecurity will likely continue through June. Clan conflicts in the Shabelle will likely continue with likely adverse impact on trade, labor migration, and normal movement of people and livestock. � Conflict between insurgent and government forces supported by troops from AMISOM are unlikely to decrease between now and June with potential adverse impact on trader movements and humanitarian access in some areas. � All forms of conflict in southern and central Somalia may lead to additional displacement of populations between now and June and requires close and continuous monitoring.

Climate Performances/Outlook Oct – Dec 2013 Seasonal Cumulative Rainfall estimates (Source: NOAA/FEWS NET) • Statement: Deyr 2013 rainfall exhibited a mixed trend in terms of amount, temporal and spatial coverage across the country. The rains were normal to above normal in most of the country with the exception of most of Juba, some parts of Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Central, Hiran and Sanaag regions where rains were below to near normal. � In the North, Tropical Cyclone 3 led to flash floods in the eastern sector of Bari and Nugal regions of Northeast Somalia. The December to January Xays rains over Guban Pastoral of northwestern Somalia and East-Golis � Rains ended earlier than normal (3rd dekad of November 2013) across the country except parts of Lower and Middle Juba, Bay and Middle Shabelle regions which received localized light to moderate rains. � From October to December, the upper catchments in Ethiopia received unusually high amounts of rain. This led to river flooding on arable land in the Juba and Shabelle Valleys.

2014 Gu (Apr-Jun) Season Rainfall Outlook ECMWF Seasonal (Jan to June) Statement: ENSO neutral conditions are expected to continue through June, therefore, near normal seasonal rainfall performance is forecast for the April – June period, across Somalia. However, long-term forecasts have very low reliability skills and will require close monitoring and updates. An updated and more reliable forecast is expected at the end of February when the 36 th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 36) concludes its session .

Market Trend Analysis Trend since January 2013: mostly stable Expected trend to June 2014 � Exchange Rates : Somali Shilling: Stable/slightly � depreciation in July-Dec . However, its slightly Exchange rates likely to remain stable stronger than Dec 2012. Somaliland Shilling: Stable through June in since July and in Dec 12-Dec 13 period � Imported commodity: prices will � Imported commodities: In most Sosh markets, prices likely remain stable through April. of imported commodities were generally stable or Following the normal, seasonal trend, declined from July 2013 . They are modestly lower prices will likely start to rise slightly than 2012. In SlSh zone commodity prices are in May as shipping is curtailed from relatively stable due to steady supply through May to August during the monsoon Berbera Port and stable Shilling winds off the coast � Cross-border trade: reduced trade activity in re- � Livestock imports and exports exports of imported food items due to restrictions expected to follow seasonal trend of related to seasonal rains and security related decrease restrictions in Ethiopia (Nov 2013) � Below average cereal production � Consumer Price Index (CPI): Slight increase In CPI in likely to affect the cost of minimum most regions related to seasonal peaks in staple expenditure basket (MEB) cereals. CPI generally stable since a year a go.

Livestock Performances � Deyr 2013/14 Improved rangeland conditions across pastoral areas except pockets in central, Sanaag, Coastal deeh of central regions and Juba resulting in typical livestock migration � Livestock reproduction: medium to low kidding and lambing (small ruminants), low to medium calving for cattle and camel across the country � Livestock body condition (PET 3-4) is average to above average across the country � Milk production: generally improved in all pastoral livelihoods across the country. Average to good in the North, average to near average in Central (Camel) and average to near average in the South (all species) � No epidemic diseases reported Outlook through June 2014: Medium kidding/calving (North/South). Medium kidding/low calving (Central). In the North: increased in herd size (camel = above baseline; goat/sheep near baseline). In Central: camel at baseline, goat/sheep at baseline. In the South: Increased trend in herd size but still below baseline except SIP.

Livestock Prices Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (SOSH) • Increasing livestock prices from 1,600,000 ) H 1,400,000 S O July to October and decreasing oat (S 1,200,000 ead of G 1,000,000 trend from November, 800,000 rice per H consistent with seasonal trends 600,000 P 400,000 SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley 200,000 0 ec-09 ar-10 Jun-10 ep-10 ec-10 1 1 1 1 ar-12 Jun-12 ep-12 ec-12 ar-13 Jun-13 ep-13 ec-13 ar-1 Jun-1 ep-1 ec-1 M M D M M D S D S S D S D Month Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 1,800,000 450,000 1,600,000 400,000 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) Price per Head of Goat (SLSH) 1,400,000 350,000 • Livestock price are expected to 1,200,000 300,000 follow seasonal trend of 1,000,000 250,000 800,000 200,000 decreasing through March 600,000 150,000 NE Central NW (SLSH) 2014 400,000 100,000 200,000 50,000 0 0 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Month