Jersey resident population 2017 estimate www.gov.je/statistics - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jersey resident population 2017 estimate www.gov.je/statistics @jsystats

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017 Summary • • At the end of 2017, the population was estimated at: Over the last year, the population has increased by 1,300 persons 100 more births 1,200 more 105,500 than deaths in-migration than out Deaths Births • Over the last decade, the population 2017: 105,500 has increased by 11,500 2012: 99,000 2007: 94,000 2000: 88,300 Statistics Jersey

Population estimate - 2017 Method 1. The census on 27 March 2011 provides a baseline count at a point in time 97,857 2. Add on net migration - administrative sources used to estimate net migration using: annual change in Workers School aged Preschool 3. The Census also provides us with an estimate of the proportion of inward migrants who stay, and estimates of non-economically active dependents to feed into the estimation calculations 4. Add on natural change - births and deaths data from Superintendent Registrar The accuracy of the estimates relies on migrant behaviour being similar to that at the time of the 2011 Census. Statistics Jersey

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017 Components of change Population change Natural change (births – deaths) Net migration (inward – outward) Deaths Births Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017 Natural change 1,123 1,066 1,038 1009 989 971 950 949 930 841 816 811 797 763 759 748 743 682 Natural growth Births Deaths 386 360 323 307 298 295 269 247 245 223 219 217 198 191 189 133 89 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017 Net migration 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,100 700 700 700 700 600 500 500 300 300 300 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017 Total change Natural growth 220 320 Net migration 200 130 300 190 310 300 270 220 390 1,500 1,400 360 1,300 1,200 250 1,100 1,100 220 190 700 700 700 700 90 600 500 500 300 300 300 250 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

Jersey resident population estimate - 2017 Summary • • At the end of 2017, the population was estimated at: Over the last year, the population has increased by 1,300 persons 100 more births 1,200 more 105,500 than deaths in-migration than out Deaths Births • Over the last decade, the population 2017: 105,500 has increased by 11,500 2012: 99,000 2007: 94,000 2000: 88,300 Statistics Jersey Statistics Jersey

Jersey resident population projections 2016 release @JsyStats Statistics Jersey

Jersey Resident Population projections How many How many school aged pensioners will children will What will the size of there be? there be? Jersey’s resident population be in How many 2035? How many babies will be households being born each (and homes) year? will be needed? What about the size of hospitals, How many working age schools and other people will there be, and public services? how many non-economically active people will there be?

Jersey Resident Population projections What we currently know… • Total population estimate – 105,500 at year-end 2017 • Net migration was 1,200 in 2017 • Net migration has averaged 1,300 per year over the last 3 years • Net migration has averaged 900 per year over the last 10 years How do we predict the future population of Jersey? We can’t.

How we model Jersey’s future population Start with the known population size at year end 2015 Age-specific fertility rates Add babies born Age-specific mortality rates Subtract deaths ! Add a year of age to everyone Subtract outward migrants Estimates of probabilities of leaving Add inward migrants ?? Finish with the population at year end 2016

How we model Jersey’s migration 1. We can estimate the number leaving in each year… 2. We can then model the number arriving in each year at different levels so that… a) the number arriving equals the number leaving (‘net nil’) b) the number arriving is higher than the number leaving by a certain amount – a ‘net migration level’

How we model Jersey’s migration – the levels 1. Zero migration 2. Net nil (inward = outward) 3. +325 (325 more persons coming in than leaving) 4. +700 (700 more persons coming in than leaving) 5. +1,000 (1,000 more persons coming in than leaving) 6. +1,500 (1,500 more persons coming in than leaving) 7. +2,000 (2,000 more persons coming in than leaving)

Interpreting the results Dependency ratio non-working age / working age - as a population ‘ages’ the dependency ratio increases - high dependency ratio = high numbers of non-workers relative to workers Working age population size - a measure of potential workforce size - productivity and economic activity of this group also key Overall population size - implications for the Island’s resources, quality of life

The results

If Jersey had no inward or outward migration… Births and deaths and ageing will still affect population size and structure Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 120,000 102,700 2065 104,600 104,100 101,200 96,100 89,500 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

If inward equalled outward migration (‘net nil’)… Inward migrants tend to be younger than outward migrants, affecting the size and age structure of the population, in addition to those changes from births, deaths and ageing Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 120,000 102,700 105,500 104,900 104,500 101,900 98,600 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

If inward migration equalled outward migration plus : +325 +700 +1,000 +1,500 +2,000 persons…

Total population size - net migration at +325 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 160,000 2065 2055 2045 2035 140,000 2025 2015 120,500 118,800 116,500 113,100 108,400 102,700 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Total population size - net migration at +700 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 2065 2055 160,000 2045 145,800 2035 138,200 130,300 2025 140,000 2015 121,800 112,500 120,000 102,700 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Total population size - net migration at +1,000 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total 240,000 220,000 200,000 2065 2055 180,000 166,000 2045 153,700 160,000 2035 141,400 2025 128,800 140,000 2015 115,700 120,000 102,700 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Total population size - net migration at +1,500 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total 240,000 2065 220,000 199,700 2055 200,000 179,500 2045 180,000 159,900 2035 160,000 140,400 2025 140,000 121,200 2015 120,000 102,700 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Total population size - net migration at +2,000 2065 Aged 65 or over Working Age 0-15 years Total 233,400 240,000 2055 220,000 205,400 2045 200,000 178,400 2035 180,000 152,000 160,000 2025 140,000 2015 126,600 102,700 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Total Population at different levels of migration Net nil migration +325 +700 +1,000 +1,500 +2,000 2065 233,400 240,000 2055 205,400 220,000 2045 200,000 178,400 2035 180,000 152,000 160,000 2025 126,600 140,000 2015 120,000 102,700 100,000 2035 2025 2045 2015 2055 2065 80,000 105,500 104,900 104,500 102,700 101,900 98,600 60,000 40,000 20,000 - 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Dependency ratio at different levels of migration Net nil migration +325 +700 +1,000 +1,500 +2,000 100% 90% 2065 2055 81% 2045 80% 77% 80% 2035 71% 70% 2025 59% 60% 2015 2065 50% 2035 2055 2045 59% 50% 57% 57% 57% 2025 2015 53% 50% 40% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Population pyramids 2015 95 90 Males 85 Females 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -1200 -800 -400 0 400 800 1200

Population pyramids – year 2035