JCCI PRESENTATION Tuesday 26 July 2016 The Place, Sandton
AGENDA SA Listed Property SA Economic Review Growthpoint Overview Meadowbrook Estate, Germiston
SOUTH AFRICAN LISTED REAL ESTATE Willowbridge, Cape Town
SIZE OF THE SECTOR SAPY Market Cap (R bil) Monthly Value of SAPY Shares Traded (R bil) 500 25 447 419 400 20 321 15 300 226 198 10 200 129 144 100 95 103 5 100 71 53 36 - 0 Source: INET-BFA 4
SIZE OF THE SECTOR SAPY Listed Property Index JSE Real Estate Sector REITs Non-REITs REITs (JSE primary) Non-REITs (JSE primary) 72 REITs (JSE secondary) Non-Reits (JSE secondary) 70 R65 billion 60 Market Cap (R billions) 56 52 51 50 40 36 R108 billion 32 32 30 18 20 R363 billion 14 12 12 10 8 10 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 0 R137 billion Source: INET-BFA 5
LISTED PROPERTY BY ASSET CLASS • Retail, office and industrial assets make up 93% of the SA listed property market • In North America and Developed Europe there is more diversification among other property sectors SOUTH AFRICA DEVELOPED EUROPE NORTH AMERICA Diversif, Resi, 3% Industrial Storage, Other, 3% Other, 1% Other, 2% 11% 6% 7% Hotels, 2% Resorts, Health, 1% 5% Industrial Diversif, Industrial 15% 34% 5% Retail, Resi, 21% 51% Retail, 28% Health, 13% Office, Office, 10% 27% Resi, 16% Retail, Office, 26% 11% Source: EPRA 6
SAPY VS GLOBAL PROPERTY SAPY EPRA NAREIT Global (ex-US) A-REIT 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% The Oval, Cape Town Source: INET-BFA 7
SAPY OFFSHORE INVESTMENTS SAPY (% of assets offshore) Africa, 1.5% USA, 6.9% Australia, 4.6% UK, 5.1% Europe, 1.3% Eastern Europe, 18.4% South Africa, 62.2% 51-65 Lenore Drive, Erskine Park, NSW Source: Avior 8
INCREASED SAPY OFFSHORE EXPOSURE AT A COST GRT share price volatility relative to SAPY GRT share price volatility relative to ALSI β (beta coefficient) (rolling 24 months) of GRT relative to SAPY β (beta coefficient) (rolling 24 months) of GRT relative to ALSI 1.40 1.40 1.20 1.30 1.00 0.80 1.20 0.60 0.40 1.10 0.20 0.00 1.00 -0.20 -0.40 0.90 -0.60 0.80 -0.80 Source: INET-BFA, Growthpoint Research 9
SA ECONOMIC REVIEW Constantia Village, Cape Town
SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS FNB/BER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SACCI BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 110 30% 20 100 10 27% 90 25% 0 80 -10 79.3 -11 70 20% -20 Source: SACCI, BER, Stats SA 11
SOUTH AFRICAN PROPERTY FUNDAMENTALS RENTAL GROWTH (%) OPERATING COSTS (% OF RENT) VACANCY RATES (%) 14 50 16 12 14 45 12 10 10 40 8 8 6 35 6 4 4 30 2 2 0 25 0 Retail Industrial Office Retail Industrial Office Retail Industrial Office Source: MSCI - IPD 12
SOUTH AFRICAN CAPITAL MARKETS RISING INTEREST RATES RISING EQUITY YIELDS 11 RSA 10YR Bond (%) GRT Dividend Yield (forward) (%) 5-year swap 10-year bond 10% 9% 10 8% 7% 9 6% 5% Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 8 FLAT EQUITY PRICES SAPY SAPY (excl. offshore) 7 90% 70% 6 50% 30% 5 10% -10% Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Source: INET BFA 13
GROWTHPOINT OVERVIEW V&A Waterfront, Cape Town
Introduction & Highlights Financial Review Capital Management Portfolio Update Conclusion INTRODUCTION TO GROWTHPOINT Retail Office Industrial Australia V&A TOTAL Waterfront R28,9bn R33,5bn R11,2bn R29,4bn R7,0bn R110,0bn * 531 properties 58 properties 185 properties 230 properties 57 properties 1 property 6.7m m² 1.4m m² 1.8m m² 2.2m m² 1.1m m² 0.2m m² * Includes 100% of GOZ and 50% of V&A Waterfront. 15
Introduction & Highlights Financial Review Capital Management Portfolio Update Conclusion INTRODUCTION TO GROWTHPOINT 673 7th 32nd 65% #1 50% STAFF YEAR Inclusion Ownership in Ownership in Largest Internally in South African, FTSE/JSE company managed Growthpoint primary listed Responsible V&A on the JSE company Australia REIT Investment Waterfront Index* Market capitalisation R63,5bn * Previously JSE SRI Index. 16
Introduction & Highlights Financial Review Capital Management Portfolio Update Conclusion GROWTH IN DIVIDEND PER SHARE (CENTS) GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH 7.2% 8.3% 7.5% 6.0% 173,4 161,3 149,0 44,5 139,0 7.5% 82,8 8.5% 76,3 7.2% 44,5 71,2 6.0% 89,5 84,4 7.5% 78,5 8.0% 7.2% 72,7 67,8 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Freestone, Sandton Interim dividend Special dividend Final dividend 17
Introduction & Highlights Financial Review Capital Management Portfolio Update Conclusion CONTRIBUTION TO DISTRIBUTABLE INCOME GROWTH GROWTH 29.4% 24.3% R2 444m 0.4% 10 361 14.8% R1 967m 198 8.1% 170 8.6% R1 520m 334 17.0% 15.3% 232 172 8.8% 157 10.3% 1 875 76.7% 65.6% 1 291 74.4% 1 131 HY14 HY15 HY16 Nestlé, Cape Town RSA V&A Waterfront GOZ Listed Investments 18
Introduction & Highlights Financial Review Capital Management Portfolio Update Conclusion RSA DIVERSIFIED BORROWINGS — NOMINAL VALUE R24 758m R17 188m R25 444m 400 Debt capital 400 Debt capital market 2 659 market 2 659 12.0% 12.4% Unsecured Unsecured 29.6% 29.0% 4 480 4 115 2 053 393 1 803 Debt capital market 3 409 22.1% Unsecured 40.0% Traditional Traditional 3 081 bank debt bank debt 88.0% 87.6% 1 450 Secured Secured 70.4% 71.0% 15 852 15 781 Traditional bank debt 77.9% Secured 60.0% 8 855 (1) HY15 FY15 HY16 Secured bank debt Secured institutional financier Unsecured bank debt and institutional financier Corporate bonds Commercial paper 1. The total value for HY16 excludes the deferred payments of R158m on the Samrand land purchased. The two outstanding payments are due Sept 2016 and Sept 2017. 19
Introduction & Highlights Financial Review Capital Management Portfolio Update Conclusion CONSOLIDATED PORTFOLIO OVERVIEW NET PROPERTY INCOME PROPERTY PORTFOLIO (by value) RSA 73.4% RSA 66.9% V&A Waterfront 5.4% V&A Waterfront 6.4% GOZ 21.2% GOZ 26.7% The Oval, Cape Town 20
Introduction & Highlights Financial Review Capital Management Portfolio Update Conclusion PROPERTY OVERVIEW Retail Office Industrial Australia V&A Africa Waterfront 21
PROSPECTS…
THANK YOU Inanda Greens, Sandton
Recommend
More recommend