IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy 11.45am - 1.30pm | 7th November 2018 | The Pierhead Building | Cardiff Bay
Welcome: Auriol Miller, Director, IWA IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy
Re-energising Wales Project Shea Buckland-Jones Institute of Welsh Affairs
An economic strategy for Wales? ● March 2015 ● Renewable energy has an important role to play in an ambitious economic strategy for Wales
Re-energising Wales ● Vision: ‘Meeting energy demand in Wales through 100% renewable energy by 2035’ ● Three year project (2016-2019) ● Project steering group ● Six work packages (details on next slide) ● Short papers (‘Funding renewable energy projects in Wales’ and ‘Decarbonising Transport’)
Work Packages 1. Energy demand 2. Swansea Bay City Region ‘Future Energy Vision’ case study 3. Economic impacts 4. Social and community issues/ownership 5. Regulatory, policy and political levers 6. Final report and action plan
Contact Details shea@iwa.org.uk www.iwa.wales @IWA_Wales
Findings from the ‘Economic Impact of Energy Transition in Wales’ research: Professor Calvin Jones, Professor of Economics and Deputy Dean for Public Value and External Relations, Cardiff University IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy
Re-energising Wales Project The Economic Costs and Benefits of Renewable Energy Transition in Wales Calvin Jones Cardiff Business School
Objectives ● To imagine and cost a renewables fleet that would deliver 100% of Wales’ territorial electricity demand in 2035 (with some wriggle room) ● To assess the investment cost of reducing GHG emissions by a significant amount (~20%) from Wales’ domestic housing stock ● To estimate the economic impact – jobs and gross value added (GVA) – consequent on the above investments ● To indicate where we just don’t yet know ● To examine wider opportunities & barriers in the renewables transition ● Brevity and clarity J
Method & Data ● Cost estimates per MW – capital plus 15yrs operations –based closely on prior Wales-level studies plus BEIS*, industry and other data ● (Mostly) 2018 costs, ignoring likely cost reductions ->2020 for reasons of comparability, higher cost of Welsh capital & installation ● Within-Wales spend estimated from variety of Welsh Economy Research Unit studies 2013 – 2018 ● Direct & Indirect/multiplier (supply chain, wage effects) estimated using Input- Output Tables for Wales NB – Our estimates are not directly comparable to Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE)
The Cost of Electricity Generation
The Economic Impact of Renewable Electricity Transition
The Cost and Economic Impact of Domestic Refurbishment (20% Greenhouse Gas Saving)
A 34% Electrified Private Vehicle Fleet? £160 £575m £415m m £350-£400m 3,000 FTEs
Caveats & Conclusions ● Significant economic opportunities herein require significant ramping up of ‘supply side’ in Wales – and ideally, greater local ownership ● Significant obstacles remain around funding/markets, grid, regulation … ● Loss (?) of lagoon(s) would mean winter baseload a key issue for a properly renewable (i.e. non-nuclear) Wales ● Many elements of climate transition remain difficult to scope and cost – land use, heat, industry/commercial etc. Some GHG remain in our scenario. ● However … . Much of this is do-able . And it’s all necessary
Findings from the ‘Regulatory and Policy Powers over Energy in Wales’ research: Hywel Lloyd, Founder, Facilitating the Future Ltd IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy
Work Package Five Regulatory, policy and political levers: A Framework for Action: Next steps for Regulatory and Policy Powers over Energy in Wales
Context 1. Welsh existing energy infrastructure 2. EU 2020, 2030 targets and directives 3. UK Renewable Energy Road Map 2011 4. EU Air Quality, Habitats & Emissions directives 5. UK Climate Change Act, Industrial Strategy ○ Low Carbon in 2009 & Clean Growth in 2017 6. Global Ambition 7. Welsh Ambition
Why? - Renewable Wealth in Wales 1. Wales needs to grow its economy, and reduce the GVA gap…. 2. Energy is an economic driver in its own right ○ as big as health in Wales . . . . ○ core to Prosperity for All ○ therefore in a future Economic Action Plan ○ as a Call for Action ○ and the Fifth Foundation Sector
What? - Renewable Wales 1. Renewable homes – Homes as Power Stations 2. Renewable mobility –all Wales refuelling infrastructure for electric and hydrogen fuelled vehicles 3. Renewable economy – establish and support the Welsh comparative advantage in hydrogen and marine renewables
With urgency 1. A Low Carbon Stimulus 2. A Welsh Government Cabinet Portfolio that unites energy, home, place and community 3. Interim targets en route to 2035 4. Aligning the tools we have, building capacity, a Welsh RIIO-2 5. Being prepared - for net-zero, for place orientated energy governance
How do we make this happen? Open discussion IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy
Closing Remarks: Llyr Gruffydd, Assembly Member, North Wales region IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy
Thank you for coming. IWA Re-energising Wales: Economic, regulatory and policy powers over Energy
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