MACEDONIAN SECURITIES MARKET (BRIEF OVERVIEW) Ivan Shteriev Macedonian Stock Exchange CEO Rovinj, October, 2015
REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA – MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q2015 GDP (real growth rates) 4,4 5,0 6,1 5,0 -0,9 2,9 2,8 -0,5 2.7* 3.8* 3.2* Inflation (end of period, on annual base, in %) 1,2 2,9 6,1 4,1 -1,6 3,0 2,8 4,7 1,4 -0,5 -0,3 Unemployment rate (in %) 37,3 36,0 34,9 33,8 32,2 32,0 31,4 31,0 29,0 28,0 27,3 Total deposits (in million of EUR) 1.508 1.916 2.534 2.848 3.050 3.467 3.786 3.972 4.213 4.651 4.669 Bank and savings houses credits to the private sector (annual growth rates) 21,0 30,5 39,2 34,4 3,5 7,1 8,5 5,4 6,4 10,0 9,2 Weighted interest rates on total extended denar credits (average for the period, in %, p.a.) 12,1 11,3 10,2 9,7 10,1 9,5 8,9 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,3 Weighted interest rates on total accepted denar deposits (average for the period, in %, p.a.) 5,2 4,6 4,9 5,9 7,0 7,0 5,9 5,1 4,4 3,7 3,2 Average exchange rate MKD/EUR 61,30 61,19 61,18 61,27 61,27 61,51 61,53 61,53 61,58 61,62 61,55 Trade balance f.o.b. (in million of EUR) -961,1 -1.062,2 -1.356,5 -1.966,9 -1.699,8 -1.602,2 -1.838,0 -1.946,7 -1.748,1 -1.762,0 -378,1 Current account balance (in million of EUR) -122,5 -23,4 -421,2 -862,2 -457,1 -144,0 -189,2 -240,0 -134,1 -68,7 -31,0 Direct investments - net (in million of EUR) 74,9 344,7 506,9 409,4 136,9 156,9 344,6 131,1 229,4 197,4 64,8 Source: National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia *Preliminary data for 2013,2014 and estimated data for 2015 (SSO).
MACEDONIAN STOCK EXCHANGE – KEY FIGURES Net profit of listed companies Listed companies (01.01.-30.06.2015) 53 mil. EUR (01.01.-30.06.2014) 36 mil. EUR 114 listed companies or Total P/E 19,95 MBI10 P/E 17,48 approximately 20 % of all JSC Total P/B 0,75 MBI10 P/B 0,89 in RM Turnover/mar.cap/index 2015 Total turnover 29 mil. EUR Disclosure statistic (15.10.2015) Turnover listed 16 mil. EUR 528 – information related with Market cap. of listed companies 1.543 mil EUR General Assembly and Decisions Market cap. % of GDP 18,10% 403 – other price sensitive Turnover /mar.cap 1,06% information MBI10 index ( value 15.10.2015) 1.714,20 131 – audited financial statements YTY % -5,22% 426 – periodical financial YTD % -7,05% statements Members Foreign participation 10 Member Top traded 2015 firms BUY SELL Top 10 traded companies 1 new member 2015(IX) 9,60% 24,71% 86 % in BEST turnover Alkaloid Skopje 2014 23,56% 30,22% in pipeline 49 % in total turnover Komercijalna banka Skopje 69 % in 2013 8,60% 14,68% NLB Tutunska banka Skopje BEST 2012 turnover 11,63% 20,87% Makpetrol Skopje 2011 20,63% 28,31% Granit Skopje
TOP TRADED COMPANIES & BONDS Top traded companies in 2015 Turnover BEST Market Dividend Issuer Business EUR P/E capitalization EUR FF % P/B yield Index member Alkaloid Skopje Pharmacy 4.459.474 11,70 117.219.963 92,29 0,94 4,15% MBI10 Komercijalna banka Skopje Finance 3.775.520 43,11 69.408.366 90,00 0,44 0,00% MBI10 NLB Tutunska banka Skopje Finance 1.114.365 8,08 0,78 8,66% MBI10 88.059.119 13,03 Makpetrol Skopje Energy 1.019.238 33.702.795 77,73 0,61 0,00% MBI10 Granit Skopje Construction 1.003.562 6,35 24.233.615 91,60 0,32 3,35% MBI10 Prilepska Pivarnica Prilep Trade 980.217 13,62 16.953.451 26,10 0,67 0,82% / Makedonski Telekom Skopje Telecomunication 739.737 27,76 1,32 10,29% MBI10 414.351.220 4,19 Stopanska banka Skopje Finance 421.571 4,49 109.678.039 5,36 0,56 0,00% / Makedonijaturist Skopje Service 348.115 11,23 27.637.903 59,55 0,73 4,96% MBI10 Skopski Pazar Skopje Trade 321.103 10,76 9.488.049 65,08 0,89 1,51% MBI10 Total 14.182.903 910.732.521 Traded bonds in 2015 Yield to Government bonds Turnover EUR maturity* Index member 18.325 / OMB Denationalization V issue (RMDEN05) 12.132 4,69% OMB Denationalization VI issue (RMDEN06) 19.936 3,89% OMB Denationalization VII issue (RMDEN07) 71.476 4,49% OMB Denationalization VIII issue (RMDEN08) 1.157.242 3,53% OMB Denationalization IX issue (RMDEN09) 378.001 3,51% OMB Denationalization X issue (RMDEN10) 128.600 3,90% OMB Denationalization XI issue (RMDEN11) 56.682 3,89% OMB Denationalization XII issue (RMDEN12) 1.102.461 4,60% OMB Denationalization XIII issue (RMDEN13) 6.168.564 4,26% OMB Denationalization XIV issue (RMDEN14) Total 9.113.419 *annual average yield to maturity of bonds with maturity over 1 year
MACEDONIAN STOCK EXCHANGE – PAST PERFORMANCE In EUR 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TRADING IN BEST 109.338.613 176.423.055 496.967.289 132.704.562 66.895.486 53.163.246 55.928.399 44.779.637 34.455.784 40.999.918 26.033.526 BLOCK TRANSACTIONS 28.433.665 228.342.489 183.063.537 67.791.488 42.540.062 41.181.313 145.757.343 39.000.911 13.298.129 25.435.916 2.798.830 PUBLIC AUCTIONS 7.231.033 102.224.634 1.574.405 1.561.147 391.131 662.971 5.228.009 5.634.348 4.464.093 4.545.819 199.016 PUBLIC OFFERINGS - - - - - - 15.132.715 1.591.253 284.788 70.182.167 - TOTAL TURNOVER 145.003.311 506.990.178 681.605.231 202.057.196 109.826.679 95.007.530 222.046.466 91.006.148 52.502.794 141.163.820 29.031.372 NUMBER OF TRANSACTIONS 32.111 52.930 141.984 43.353 34.437 25.741 23.426 14.951 13.585 13.398 9.021 Market capitalization (Official market) 542.033.971 833.762.845 1.853.243.298 574.189.416 635.760.205 495.001.751 443.906.670 421.426.990 1.587.433.993 1.655.098.695 1.543.296.623 Mar.cap/GDP% 7,20% 19,54% 11,30% 16,48% 33,42% 9,22% 9,46% 7,37% 6,61% 20,38% 18,10% М BI10 2.292,04 3.702,54 7.740,79 2.096,16 2.751,88 2.278,92 1.974,86 1.731,18 1.738,86 1.844,20 1.714,20 % of annual MBI10 index change 61,54 109,07 -72,92 31,28 -17,19 -13,34 -12,34 0,44 6,06 -7,05 Number of listed companies 57 43 38 38 36 34 32 32 116 115 114 Number of trading days 201 252 247 248 244 247 243 246 245 249 192 Members 15 17 22 27 25 20 18 15 13 10 10 TIMELINE
CHALENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES New reality (after 20 years) Positive factors combination Trading concentration rule (until EU accession) Historically low interests rates Mandatory listing (until 2018) Resolution of current internal political turmoil New securities Law (to be draft in 2016) EU/NATO accession Market supply vs demand SEE Link ( IPO, securitization, investment and pension funds, foreign investors, etc.) Mentality change B/O SW Confidence Liberalization of F/X regime 6
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