Investor Meeting Presentation June 2013
Tab able le of of Con ontent tent Government Debt Position Prudent Fiscal Management Preserved Macroeconomic Stability to Support Further Growth
Government Debt Position
Gov’t. Debt Outstanding 2007 -2012 Trillion IDR 2.000 1.800 575 614 1.600 621 1.400 617 611 730 1.200 1.000 800 1.461 1.361 600 1.188 1.064 979 906 400 200 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*) Loan Government Securities [ IDR Trillion & Percentage] 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*) EoY Loan 730 45% 611 38% 617 37% 621 37% 614 31% 575 28% 906 55% 979 62% 1.064 63% 1.188 63% 1.361 69% 1.461 72% Government Securities Total 1.637 100% 1.591 100% 1.682 100% 1.809 100% 1.975 100% 2.037 100% Notes: + Provisional as of May 2013 4
Debt Maturity Profile [IDR Trillion] 180 160 As of May2013 140 53 30 120 41 52 40 100 49 35 41 25 80 43 37 60 7 108 10 13 18 99 8 1 98 92 1 21 85 82 40 76 75 75 69 8 8 60 3 15 53 51 47 47 48 44 43 20 38 2 33 0 29 31 5 1 22 21 8 10 8 9 5 - 3 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041-2055 Loan Government Securities [IDR Trillion] 100,00 As of June 24, 2013 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 - 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2041 2042 2043 TOTAL 36,8 83,3 77,3 66,2 49,4 83,0 56,8 69,3 60,2 92,2 61,8 18,0 27,5 19,6 44,3 48,2 - 25,6 27,1 42,8 44,5 15,8 4,11 31,4 35,5 - 13,5 34,3 16,9 SUKUK USD - 6,46 - - - 9,93 - - - 9,93 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SUKUK IDR 2,58 7,34 18,9 14,9 1,17 8,71 - 0,25 - 1,22 - - 1,55 - 2,93 - - 2,18 - - - - 4,11 10,1 - - - - 2,05 SUN JPY - - - - - - 3,54 6,06 - 6,06 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SUN USD - 22,8 9,93 8,94 9,93 18,8 19,8 19,8 24,8 19,8 14,9 - - - - - - - - - - 15,8 - 14,9 19,8 - - 22,3 14,9 SUN IDR 34,2 46,7 48,4 42,3 38,3 45,5 33,4 43,2 35,3 55,1 47,0 18,0 26,0 19,6 41,4 48,2 - 23,5 27,1 42,8 44,5 - - 6,40 15,6 - 13,5 12,0 - 5
Debt Risk Indicators, 2007 - 2012 Interest Rate Risk Exchange Rate Risk 52,1 30,2 28,2 28,2 47,4 46,9 46,2 26,7 45,1 26,1 25,9 44,4 22,9 22,4 22,0 20,3 18,8 16,1 17,2 16,5 13,4 12,1 10,9 10,7 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Variable rate ratio [%] Refixing rate [%] FX Debt to GDP ratio (%) FX Debt to total debt ratio (%) Average Time To Maturity (ATM)-Years Debt Maturing in 1, 3 and 5 Years 10,4 34,6 34,1 33,2 32,4 31,1 30,6 10,0 22,7 9,7 21,5 20,8 9,7 20,3 19,4 18,6 9,5 9,3 8,2 7,6 7,2 6,8 7,1 6,4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Maturity debt portion < 1 year (%) Maturity debt portion < 3 year (%) Average Time to Maturity (in percentage) Maturity debt portion < 5 year (%) 6
Financing Trend, 2006 – 2012 Budget Deficit Financing (trillion IDR) 200 2,5 2,38 2,0 150 1,8 1,6 1,5 100 1,3 1,1 1,0 0,9 50 0,7 0,5 0,5 0 0,1 - - -50 (0,5) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** Govt Securities - net 6,9 22,6 36,0 57,2 85,9 99,5 91,1 119,9 159,7 231,8 Domestic Loan - - - - - 0,39 0,62 0,75 0,50 External Loan - net (28,1) (10,3) (26,6) (26,6) (18,4) (12,4) (4,57) (17,8) (25,1) (16,90) Others/Non-Debt - net 42,0 (1,2) 20,0 11,9 16,6 25,5 4,6 28,3 37,9 (8,8) Budget Defisit, % to GDP 0,5 0,9 1,3 0,1 1,6 0,7 1,1 1,8 2,38 Notes: * LKPP Unaudited 2012 ** Revised Budget 2013 7
Debt to GDP Ratio and Debt Service Ratio 2008 – 2013 Interest Expenses to Revenue and Debt to GDP Ratio (% of GDP) Expenditure Ratio (%) 12% 40% 33,1% 10% 28,3% 30% 26,1% 24,3% 8% 24,0% 23,1% 11,05% 6% 20% 9,01% 8,88% 7,70% 7,53% 7,40% 4% 10,00% 8,97% 8,48% 7,20% 6,79% 6,73% 10% 2% 0% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** Interest to Revenue Interest to Expenditure Interest Expenses to Tax Revenue & Central Debt Service to GDP Ratio (%) Government Expenditure Ratio (%) 5% 16% 4,0% 3,8% 4% 14% 3,4% 4% 12% 3,1% 3,0% 2,9% 3% 10% 14,9% 3% 8% 12,8% 12,7% 10,6% 10,0% 2% 6% 9,8% 14,2% 15,1% 12,2% 10,7% 10,3% 2% 4% 9,5% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013** to Tax Revenue to Central Gov't Expenditure Notes: * Based on Realization of Dec 2012 (Unaudited) 8 ** Based on Budget 2013
Gov’t Debt Securities Issuance Plan 201 3 Gov’t Debt Operation – Policy Combination 2013- 2013 - % of Revised Item Budget % of GDP Revised Domestic market issuance will be prioritized Budget (trillion IDR) GDP (trillion IDR) Issuance in benchmark tenor, Benchmark Series for 2013: Total Revenue & Grants 1.529,7 16,5% 1.502,0 16,0% FR 66 – 5 Y of which Tax Revenue 1.192,99 12,9% 1.148,36 12,2% FR 63 – 10 Y Non Tax Revenue 332,20 3,6% 349,16 3,7% FR 64 – 15 Y Expenditure 1.683,0 18,2% 1.726,2 18,4% FR 65 – 20 Y of which Interest payment 113,2 1,2% 112,5 1,2% 0,0% 0,0% Issuance in global market Subsidy 317,2 3,4% 348,1 3,7% 0,0% 0,0% Primary Balance (40,1) -0,4% (111,7) -1,2% Maximum non-IDR govt securities issuance approximately 18%-20% from Overall Balance (deficit) (153,3) -1,7% (224,2) -2,4% total gov’t debt securities issuance Buyback, debt switching, direct transaction Financing 153,3 1,7% 224,2 2,4% Initiatives strategic :USD securities issuance in domestic market & sukuk Non Debt (Net) (8,1) -0,1% (8,8) -0,1% Debt 161,5 1,7% 225,0 2,4% project financing 0,0% 0,0% Govt Securities (Net) 180,4 1,9% 231,8 2,5% 0,0% 0,0% Domestic Official Borrowing 0,5 0,0% 0,5 0,0% Primary Dealers External Official Borrowing (Net) (19,5) -0,2% (16,9) -0,2% Disbursement 45,9 0,5% 49,0 0,5% Program Loan 6,5 0,1% 11,1 0,1% 1. Citibank N.A 11. PT. Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Tbk Project Loan (Bruto) 39,4 0,4% 37,9 0,4% 2. Deutsche Bank AG 12. PT. Bank Permata, Tbk On lending (7,0) -0,1% (6,7) -0,1% 3. HSBC 13. PT. Bank CIMB Niaga, Tbk Repayment (58,4) -0,6% 59,2 0,6% 4. PT. Bank Central Asia, Tbk 14. Standard Chartered Bank 5. PT. Bank Danamon Indonesia, Tbk. 15. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA. Assumptions: 6. PT. Bank Internasional Indonesia, Tbk 16. PT. Bahana Securities GDP (trillion) 9.269,6 9.404,7 7. PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero), Tbk 17. PT. Danareksa Sekuritas Growth (%) 6,8 6,3 8. PT. Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero), Tbk 18. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas Inflation (%) 4,9 7,2 9. PT. Bank OCBC NISP, Tbk 19. PT. Trimegah Securities, Tbk 3-months SPN (% avg) 5,0 5,0 10. PT. Bank Panin, Tbk Rp / USD (avg) 9.300,0 9.600,0 Oil Price (USD/barrel) 100,0 108,0 Oil Lifting (MBCD) 900,0 840,0 9
2012-2013 Funding Strategy Progress (Million IDR) % Realization to Budget 2013 Revised Budget 2013 Realization (ao June 25, 2013) Revised Budget 2013 Government Securities Maturity 2013 85.610.835 85.610.835 50.617.810 59,13% Government Securities Net 180.439.900 231.800.000 90.593.680 39,08% Buyback 3.000.000 3.000.000 1.551.385 51,71% Issuance Need 2013 * 279.430.735 330.790.835 145.562.875 44,00% Government Debt Securities (GDS) 120.619.000 91.450.000 Domestic GDS - Coupon GDS 75.100.000 16.350.000 - Conventional T-Bills - Retail Bonds 29.169.000 International Bonds - USD Global Bonds 29.169.000 - Samurai Bonds Government Islamic Debt Securities 24.943.875 Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 24.943.875 International Sukuk *Adjusted by changes in Cash Management & Debt Switch 10
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