MOZAMBIQUE REAL EST A TE INVESTMENT SUMMIT 24 - 26 NOVEMBER 2014 BEYOND MAPUTO: WHERE ARE REAL EST A TE PLAYERS HEADING TO? MANUEL VIEIRA GUILHERME GODINHO
Q? HOW DOES THE INFRASTRUCTURE LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE? WHERE ARE THE BIG RETURNS? IS THERE ENOUGH ROOM FOR EVERYONE ? EXPATS VS LOCALS WHO ´ S LIKELY TO DRIVE THE MARKET AND WHO ´ S MORE SUSTAINABLE
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 ECONOMIC INDICA TORS FORECAST 2013 - 2018 REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE SOURCE: IMF CAPITAL AND MAIN CITY OFFICIAL LANGUAGE GOVERNMENT MAPUTO PORTUGUESE FRELIMO SADC A VERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH PRESIDENT FELIPE NYUSI ESTATISTICS (Source: INE) COUNTRY SIZE POPULATION (2013) CURRENCY (NOV 2014) 801,590 KM2 24,0 MILLIONS METICAL 1 US$ = 30 Meticais ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS (Source: IMF, World Bank) CURRENT GDP (2013) GDP PER CAPITA (2013) INFLATION RATE (2013) 15,4 BILLION US$ 640,0 US$ 3,54 % WORKING AGE LABOR FORCE (2012) URBAN POPULATION POPULATION (2012) 10,1 MILLIONS (2012) 12,13 MILLIONS 31,2 % HIGHEST GROWTH AVERAGE GDP GROWTH GDP PER CAPITA (PPP) AVERAGE INFLATION RATE FORECAST 2012 - 2018 FORECAST 2018 FORECAST 2014 - 2018 7,7 % 990,0 US$ 5,6 % COUNTRY RISK PREMIUM COUNTRY RISK RATING MEGA PROJECTS MARCH 2014 STANDARD & POOR'S CONTRIBUTION IN 2012 6,0 % B- 27,0 % OF GDP AVERAGE INCREASE INCREASE LENDING OF PRIVATE OF INTEREST COMSUPTI GDP per 25,6 % 15,25 % 41,4 % RATE ON capita (US$) PPP
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES 1 THE CITY WILL BE THE LOCOMOTIVE OF THE MARKET IN THE NEXT DECADE FOCUS ON SERVICES 2 THE MAIN LOGISTICS HUB FOR CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE AND ZIMBABWE FOCUS ON COAL and O &G FROM 2017 WILL BE THE LARGEST PORT 3 IN MOZAMBIQUE AND THE MAIN EXPORT TERMINAL OF COAL FROM TETE 4 WILL BE THE LOGISTIC HUB AND AGRO - INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS LOGISTICS WILL BE THE FOCUS FROM 2020 WILL CONCENTRATE THE 5 LARGEST GAS ON-SHORE INFRASTRUCTURE FOCUS ON O & G MINING PRODUCTION AND THERMOELEC- 6 TRICAL WILL DRIVE THE MARKET FOCUS ON COAL & ENERGY
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 HOW DOES THE INFRASTRUCTURE LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE?
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 INFRASTRUCTURES FUTURE EXISTENCE PALM A CITY OF PEMBA TETE / NACALA MOATIZE PORT CITY OF BEIRA GAS PIPELINE NEW OR IMPROVED RAIL WAY CORRIDORS NEW AIRPORTS REDE FERTILISER & PETROCHEMICAL RODOVIÁRIA PLANTS REDE EXPANSION OF FERROVIÁRIA PORT AEROPORTO LNG & GTL EXISTENTE PLANTS MAPUTO / PORTO NEW ELECTRICAL MATOLA EXISTENTE PLANT PIPELINES
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 MAIN PROJECTS PALMA MAPUTO CITY OF + RING ROAD PEMBA + MAPUTO - KA TEMBE BRIDGE TETE / NACALA MOATIZE PORT NACALA + NACALA CORRIDOR RAILWAY TETE TO NACALA NEW PORT AT NACALA VELHA CITY OF + NEW INTERNACIONAL AIRPORT BEIRA GAS PIPELINE NEW OR IMPROVED RAILWAY PEMBA CORRIDORS NEW AIRPORTS FERTILISER & PETROCHEMICAL PLANTS +LNG PROJECT EXPANSION OF PORT LNG & GTL + NEW INTERNACIONAL AIRPORT PLANTS MAPUTO / NEW ELECTRICAL MATOLA PLANT + NEW ELECTRICAL PLANT
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 WHERE ARE THE BIG RETURNS IS THERE ENOUGH ROOM FOR EVERYONE?
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 WHERE ARE THE BIG RETURNS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT 1 INCREASED F EMPLOYMENT PEMBA & PALMA 2 PROMOTION OF QUALIFIED EMPLOYMENT 3 PROMOTE SME 4 SPECIALIZED INFRASTRUCTURE 5 FUNDING LOCAL PROJECTS NACALA TETE & MOATIZE NAMPULA GOVERNMENT GROSS FIXED INVESTMENT 1 NEW INFRASTRUCTURE 2 INCREASE OF EMPLOYMENT 3 CONSUMPTION OF SERVICES & GOODS 4 PROMOTE SME BEIRA CREDIT TO THE ECONOMY 1 INCREASE IN PRIVATE CONSUMPTION 2 INCREASE IN HOUSING CREDIT 3 INCREASE IN INVESTMENT REAL ESTA TE OPORTUNITITES MAPUTO LOGISTICS HOSPITALITY & HOUSING OFFICES RETAIL INDUSTRIAL
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 EXP A TS VS LOCALS WHO ´ S LIKEL Y TO DRIVE THE MARKET AND WHO ´ S MORE SUST AINABLE
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 ASSUMING A MORTGAGE FOR MIDDLE CLASS FAMILY HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE MAXIMUM AVERAGE * INCOME MORTGAGE LENDING LOAN TO VALUE 35,0 % EFFORT RATIO 20 YEARS 80,0 % 15,25 % INTEREST RATE PERIOD RATIO Y THE MIDDLE CLASS HOW MANY FAMILIES WILL BE ABLE TO A T WHA T PRICES MA AFFORD A HOUSE? AFFORD A HOUSE MAPUTO MOZAMBIQUE FAMILY WITH A 150.000 19.500 MONTHLY INCOME US$ 60,000 - 100,000 HOUSEHOLDS HOUSEHOLDS 1,800 US$ - 3.000 US$ FAMILY WITH A 50.000 6.400 MONTHLY INCOME US$ 115,000 - 215,000 HOUSEHOLDS HOUSEHOLDS 3.500 US$ - 6.500 US$ * W H AT I F R AT E S W E R E LO W E R ?
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 RESIDENTIAL DEMAND SEGMENT A TION MIDDLE INCOME FAMILIES Preference for renting 55.00% MID-HIGH INCOME FAMILIES Preference for buying 25.00% HIGH INCOME FAMILIES Preference for buying 5.00% EXPATRIATES Specialized workers Preference for renting 7.5% Managers and Directors Preference for renting 4.0% Professionals and Top Executives Preference for renting 2.0% COMPANIES Buy or Rent 1.5% NATIONAL DEMAND 85.0% FOREIGN DEMAND 15.0% Source: REC Analysis
MOZAMBIQUE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SUMMIT MAPUTO | NOVEMBER 2014 CONCLUSIONS FAC TO RS IN FLU EN C IN G MAR KET D YN AMICS 1 GLOBAL DEMAND FOR NATURAL RESOURCES 2 RECOVERY IN ESTABLISHED ECONOMIES COMPETING FOR INVESTMENT $$$$$ 3 MOZAMBIQU E’S ABILITY TO DELIVERY NEW INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS 4 FINANCIAL MARKETS MATURITY (INVESTMENT FUNDS & EQUITY FUNDS) 5 IMPROVE PUBLIC TRANSPORT NETWORK IN URBAN & SUBURBAN AREAS 6 IMPROVE INTERCITYS TRANSPORT NETWORK (ROADS, RAILWAYS, AIRWAYS, NAVIGATION) 7 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY REGULATION, LICENSING, TRAINING AND CERTIFICATION POLITICAL STABILITY 8 DEMAN D TRENDS 9 INTEREST RATES - COST OF CAPITAL 1 INCREASED QUALITY DEMAND BY YOUNG FAMILIES 10 ACCESS TO LAND 2 STRONG NEED FOR NEW BUILDING ST ANDARDS: SMALLER AREAS, MEDIUM QUALITY FINISHES, PERIPHERAL LOCATIONS, LOWER PRICES, ABILITY TO “ADD - ON” 3 INCREASE IN BUYING DEMAND VERSUS RENTAL DEMAND A CHALLENGE FOR DEVELOPERS: THE RIGHT PRODUCT AT AN AFFORDABLE PRICE A CHALLENGE FOR FINANCIERS: LOWER INTEREST RATES A CHALLENGE FOR GOVERNMENT: MAKE LAND AVAILABLE
OUR SERVICES + C ONSUL ANCY & V ALUA T TIONS + P ROJECT MANAGEMENT + B ROKEAGE
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