UNCLASSIFIED Introductions Tell us about your favorite Sci Fi movie Sci Fi Movie Link https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/future-oe-elective/p/futures Victory Starts Here! 1 UNCLASSIFIED
Charles Taylor* Characteristics of potential future leaders • Innovative, creative, and visionary • Awareness of barriers • Ability to adjust or change Barriers • Resistance to change 2 *Creating Strategic Visions, US Army War College Victory Starts Here!
Andy Hines and Peter Bishop* Strengths • Know your biases; self- awareness • Work in teams • Embrace ambiguity Barriers • Self-delusion/Wishful Thinking • Group Think 3 *Thinking About the Future; Guidelines for Strategic Foresight Victory Starts Here!
UNCLASSIFIED Mindsets Here are some of my notes-what can you add to this discussion? • The View you adopt for yourself can profoundly impact the way you lead your life, and your accomplishments and how you see your future • Children are born with insatiable curiosity and know that human intellectual skills can be cultivated. As soon as they are able to evaluate themselves, they become afraid of When encountering errors-the growth not being smart. mindset is on fire!! • Fixed mindset-qualities carved in stone, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hi which creates an urgency to prove oneself iEeMN7vbQ over and over again. With effort comes risk, as it might reveal inadequacies. • Growth mindset–anyone can be anything, with proper motivation or education. A person’s true potential is unknown, impossible to foresee what one may become with years of passion, toil and training. Victory Starts Here! 4 UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED Mindsets • Mindset significantly impacts success (vast difference between growth and fixed mindset) • CEO Disease • When do you feel smart • Meaning of Failure • Meaning of Effort • With effort-you can modify your mindset • Huge impact on your leadership ability (how you work with your team) • How you give praise • How you manage attitude • Brain Points-reward process/not intelligence • Greater perseverance/Grit (over time improves ability) • Yet/Not Yet • Transform the meaning of effort and difficulty (difficulty just means not yet) • Huge impact on lives of young students. • Overcome bias/improve equality Victory Starts Here! 5 UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED Nudge Improving decisions about health, wealth and happiness My notes: Our understanding of human behavior can be improved by appreciating how people systematically go wrong. Two systems of how we think Intuitive and automatic: rapid and instinctive lizard brain. Reflective and rational: Deliberate and self-conscious process. Heuristics (Rules of Thumb)-they can be helpful but they can also lead to systematic biases Anchoring-starting with what you know and adjust in what you think is the right direction. Anchors serve as nudges. Availability-likelihood of risk is associated with how readily examples come to mind. Accessibility and salience (personal experience) are closely related to availability. This can lead to false assessment of risk. Representativeness (similarity) heuristic-what things look like. One can be fooled by randomness. Seeing patterns where none exist. Optimism and overconfidence-unrealistic optimism can lead to risk taking endeavors. Gains and losses-people do not like to lose. Loss aversion produces inertia, stick with the status quo. Status quo bias-sticking with your current situation. These are my thoughts-what might you add to the discussion? Victory Starts Here! 6 UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED The Art of the Long View Future Hunters have a much longer time horizon for scenarios Victory Starts Here! 7 UNCLASSIFIED
Definition of Strategic Foresight Strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high-quality forward views and apply the emerging insights in organizationally useful ways. 8 Victory Starts Here!
Lum: 4 Steps to the Future Methods or techniques • Adding structure to how you think about the future. – Not comprehensive – Informed by critical thinking • Not about predictions, divining the immediate or the hyper- specific • What the future could be-not about what it will be. 9 Victory Starts Here!
Lum: 4 Steps to the Future Fundamental concepts • The future does not exist-we are all creating it • There are many possible futures. • The future is in constant flux Do these fundamental • Key point: there is no way concepts resonate with General Perkin’s ideas that you will be advised on about the future? how to accurately predict a single future on which you 10 should bet the farm Victory Starts Here!
Four step process • Past • Present • Futures • Aspiration 11 Victory Starts Here!
UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters (A797) What is the X of 2050? What will X be like in 2050? 1. What will the Education system be like for the US in 2050? (Michael) 2. What will the US be like in 2050 as a result of climate change? (Michael) 3. What will the atmospheric modification be like in 2050 ? (Shane) 4. What will be the global thermostat limit for CO2 be in 2050? (Shane) 5. What will happen to the US as a result of CO2 in 2050? (Shane) 6. What will be the risks for allowing AI to make decisions for us in 2050? (Donny) 7. What will agriculture be like for the US in 2050? (Donny) 8. What unforeseen social opportunities will emerge from synthetic biology in 2050? (Derrek) Victory Starts Here! 12 UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED Super Past • Risks and likely character of future war long pre-occupied people. • Variety of agendas, long informed writing on future war • Role of science fiction throughout examination of the future of war • Two large themes throughout the literature • A growing appreciation of the difficulties containing war • A search for a form of decisive force that might inflict a knockout blow • Far less thought given to • Consequences of a first blow that failed to floor the opponent • How war’s course might be increasingly determined by non-military factors, including the formation and breaking of alliances, underlying economic and demographic strength or • The public’s readiness to make sacrifices and tolerate casualties. • Although technology was presented as the main driver of change in warfare, its influence was shaped by the political context. • The reason that the future is difficult to predict is that it depends upon choices that have yet to be made, including by our governments, in circumstances that remain uncertain. Victory Starts Here! 13 UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters Lesson 3 Do you see any emerging drivers of change? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbqMuvnx5MU Victory Starts Here! 14 UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED Future Hunters Lesson 3 What was the World like in 1983? Victory Starts Here! 15 UNCLASSIFIED
History Lessons – Foresee the social and cultural impact of new inventions – Put hype and skepticism into perspective – Clues about how a technology might evolve in the future – Reminder-humans are responsible for problems that we blame on technology 16 Victory Starts Here!
History Lessons, cont – A new networking technology revolutionizes long- distance communication, making it cheaper and more convenient than ever before. – Enthusiastically embraced by businesses, causing a speculative boom. Relentlessly hyped by advocates and mocked by detractors – Makes possible new forms of business and new forms of crime – Governments struggle to prevent all use of cryptography, demand access to all messages – People make friends and fall in love on line – New technology will lead to world peace, some say, by erasing borders and unites humanity – Great highway of thought – Both the story of the Internet and the electric telegraph of mid 19 th century 17 Taken from Mega Tech: Technology in 2050, pg 11 Victory Starts Here!
History Lessons, cont “It is a well-known fact that no other section of the population avail themselves of technology more readily and speedily of the latest triumph of science than the criminal class” Quote from a Chicago policeman in 1888 18 Victory Starts Here!
Present • Which of these forces (from the past) are still at work? • What factors are most influential, either alone or together? • What new influences have emerged? 19 Victory Starts Here!
Present Transitory moment between what was and what might be This is where we take a look at all the signals about change that we think we are presently receiving Three questions to ask – Which of the historical drivers might be at work again? – What new sources of change do you think you are detecting? Quote from Henry Ford-if I had asked my – What new things might slow or customers what they wanted-they would prevent change today? have told me “faster horses” 20 Victory Starts Here!
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