International shipping temperatures and their effects on perceived - PDF document

International shipping temperatures International shipping temperatures and their effects on perceived wine quality John J. Bartholdi III Alejandro F. Mac Cawley amac@ing.puc.cl May 2014 Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Motivation “It is a frightening thought, but I have no doubt that a sizable percentage (between 10% and 25%) of the wines sold in America have been damaged because of exposure to extremes of heat.” Robert M. Parker, Jr. Parker’s Wine Buyers Guide–7th edition (2008), page 23 Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 1

International shipping temperatures Wine SC & temperature danger Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures How tracked Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 2

International shipping temperatures Tracked routes to the US Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Tracked routes to the US Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 3

International shipping temperatures Tracked routes to the US Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Prior studies • Effects of temperature, humidity, vibration, light on wine chemistry: – (Hasnip et al, 2004; Ough, 1985 and Ough et al, 1960; Lopes et al, 2006; Chung et al, 2008; Maury et al, 2010; Dozon & Noble, 1989 • Analysed stable storage/transport temperature: – Makhotkina et al (2012), Robinson et al (2010), Wicks et al (2009), Perez-Coello et al (2003), Sivertsen (2001) and De La Presa-Owens & Noble (1997). • Butzke (2012) recorded temperatures during truck transport within the US. • Robinson et al (2010) and Wicks et al (2009) studied effects of stable temperatures on wine. None used “actual” temperature patterns or judged effect on quality by trade. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 4

International shipping temperatures Contribution • Analyzed the effect of shipping temperatures in the quality as perceived by consumers. – Largest DB of documented international shipping temperatures. – Quantified the danger and generated recommendations. – Thermal liner effect. – “Physical simulation” and the effect of SC conditions. Consumer/Buyer. • Practitioner: – Measure the danger. Best practices and recommendations. – Should we be concerned? – Cost of mitigating v/s effect over the product. Perception Consumer/Buyer. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Temperature danger measures and analysis • Exposure: Percentage of shipments that had one reading above threshold. • Level: Time. • Cumulative effect: Arrhenius equation. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 5

International shipping temperatures Temperature effect: speed of chemical reactions Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Temperature danger measures and analysis • Exposure: Percentage of shipments that had one reading above threshold. • Level: Time. • Cumulative effect: Arrhenius equation. • Analysis: Location and time. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 6

International shipping temperatures Results - Exposure Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Results - Exposure 99.6 % ≥ 70 ° F Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 7

International shipping temperatures Results - Exposure 99.6 % ≥ 70 ° F 66 % ≥ 87 ° F Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Results - Exposure 99.6 % ≥ 70 ° F 66 % ≥ 87 ° F 12.2 % ≥ 104 ° F Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 8

International shipping temperatures Results - Exposure 99.6 % ≥ 70 ° F 66 % ≥ 87 ° F 12.2 % ≥ 104 ° F Cooked! Chemical Reaction Speed + 76.2% Q [58.4%,94.7%] Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Results - Level Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 9

International shipping temperatures Results - Level 112 hrs. ≥ 87 ° F 19 hrs. ≥ 104 ° F Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Results - Port of Transshipment Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 10

International shipping temperatures Results - Port of Transshipment Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Results - Destination port to importer / period Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 11

International shipping temperatures Results - Destination port to importer / period 72 % ≥ 87 ° F Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Port destination - Time & speed 138 hrs. ≥ 87 ° F 110 hrs. ≥ 87 ° F Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 12

International shipping temperatures Port destination - Time & speed Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Thermal liner Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 13

International shipping temperatures Liner Effect Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Liner Effect 9 ° F at 104 ° F 77% range buffer Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 14

International shipping temperatures Issues So the wine cooks… Does the buyer/consumer notice? Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Replicating temperature histories Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 15

International shipping temperatures Experiment Treated Un-Treated Glass # 1 Glass # 2 Glass # 3 • 8 equally likely patterns of pour. • Most of the wines were from California to avoid “pre cook”. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Questions • Which glass, if any, tastes different from the others? • Which glass(es) tastes better? • In your opinion, which glass(es), if any, hold wine that was subjected to shipping temperatures? • Compared results with random choice. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 16

International shipping temperatures Results 1. Detect difference: White wine Yes. Red: No. 2. Preference: White wines: Improved. Red: Did not like cooked high-end red wines. 3. Detect shipped wine: Both No. 4. Aging: increased the preference towards treated wines (Low end). Temperature: – White wines tend to have a positive effect. – Red wines has a negative/positive effect. Could not detect differences. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures General findings • When: At sea, during transshipment and upon arrival to the US in summer. • Where: The northern hemisphere in summer. NE ports. • Practical applications. • Should we use a liner? • Temperature effect? Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 17

International shipping temperatures Wine shipping “best practices” International Wine Shipping Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Wine shipping “best practices” International Wine Shipping Avoid Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 18

International shipping temperatures Wine shipping “best practices” Speed International Wine Shipping Avoid Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures Wine shipping “best practices” Speed International Wine Shipping Decide Avoid Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 19

International shipping temperatures Contribution • Analyzed the effect of shipping temperatures in the quality as perceived by consumers. – Largest DB of documented international shipping temperatures. – Quantified the danger and generated recommendations. – Thermal liner effect. – “Physical simulation” and the effect of SC conditions. Consumer/Buyer. • Practitioner: – Measure the danger. Best practices and recommendations. – Should we be concerned? – Cost of mitigating v/s effect over the product. Perception Consumer/Buyer. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 International shipping temperatures So what… • Implications and lessons for international shipping of temperature sensitive products. • Quantified risk. • Cost of mitigating v/s effect over the product. Perception. • “Physical simulation” and the effect of SC conditions. • Decision support. Include temperature in the equation. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 20

International shipping temperatures Further research • Continue enhancing the analysis of temperature danger in international supply chains. Support from industry. • Simulation of other factors and cork displacement. • Using information of air temperature and shipping routes and schedules. – Developing a temperature/time/location network to determine best route/service to minimize temperature risks. • Effect of temperature over quality in the case of significant aging. Alejandro Mac Cawley – Nov 2014 21