International Economic Developments Nigel Ray Deputy Secretary, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

International Economic Developments Nigel Ray Deputy Secretary, Macroeconomic Group The Treasury 1

Level of real GDP in major advanced economies Index (March Qtr Index (March Qtr 140 140 2000 = 100) 2000 = 100) 135 135 130 130 USA 125 125 120 120 EU 115 115 110 110 Japan 105 105 100 100 95 95 Mar 00 Mar 02 Mar 04 Mar 06 Mar 08 Mar 10 Mar 12 Mar 14 Source: Bloomberg 2

Variability in Capital Flows Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 0 Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis Pre-Crisis Post-Crisis AE EME Source: IMF 3 Note: Standard deviation of net capital flows vis-a-vis trend

Non-financial corporate debt Per cent of GDP Per cent of GDP 110 110 100 100 Advanced Economies 90 90 Emerging Market Economies 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bank for International Settlements 4

China estimated capital flow USD Billions USD Billions 100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 0 0 -25 -25 -50 -50 -75 -75 -100 -100 -125 -125 -150 -150 -175 -175 -200 -200 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Source: Bloomberg 5

China cross-border claims fall $US Billion $US Billion 700 700 600 600 Banks 500 500 400 400 300 300 Non-Banks 200 200 100 100 0 0 Source: Bank for International Settlements 6

Foreign currency exposure, by sector Per cent of GDP, as at March 2013 Gross exposure Net exposure Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent 40 40 40 40 Assets Liabilities Before hedging After hedging 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 -20 -20 -20 -20 -40 -40 -40 -40 Banks Other financial Other resident Banks Other financial Other resident corporations sectors corporations sectors 7 Source: ABS Catalogue Number 5308.0.

IMF Resources and Lending SDR Billion SDR Billion 1000 1000 IMF's Resources (Quota) 900 900 IMF's New Arrangements to Borrow 800 800 IMF Bilateral Loans Agreements 700 700 DUMMY 600 600 Total IMF Lending to Crisis Countries 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Feb-16 Source: IMF Finance Department 8

China GDP Share versus IMF Quota Share Per Cent Per cent 18 %GDP %Quota Pre-Reform %Quota Post Reform DUMMY 18 IMF Projections 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: IMF October 2015 WEO 9