Innovation Track Innovation Track - - Summary of results and Summary of results and future research needs future research needs Hartmut Fricke Hartmut Fricke Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - - Baltimore, Baltimore, 1 Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar 1 MD MD
Structure of the track Structure of the track � We had 8 Papers: 4 European and 4 US Papers We had 8 Papers: 4 European and 4 US Papers � � Innovative ATM Innovative ATM did call for a potentially wide did call for a potentially wide � range of (conceptual) topics and did suggest a range of (conceptual) topics and did suggest a rather long term perspective and as such rather long term perspective and as such virtually a rather low readiness level of the ideas. virtually a rather low readiness level of the ideas. � We got: A clear mixture of specific and strategic We got: A clear mixture of specific and strategic � papers, but all under the scheme: papers, but all under the scheme: � Provide ideas on how the Future ATM System can � Provide ideas on how the Future ATM System can cope with the expected growth in demand until 2025 cope with the expected growth in demand until 2025 while still staying safe and efficient while still staying safe and efficient Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 2 MD
In Detail: Interpretation In Detail: Interpretation CfP – – Research Community Research Community CfP Conceptual Ideas Specific ideas on how to new Tools, design the new type of Range of Topic future system information while gathering & Identifying presentation problem areas Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 3 MD
Major Research Findings Major Research Findings � We did open the door for We did open the door for “ “Non ATM Non ATM” ” people in the people in the � design and concept finding phase. A promising attempt. design and concept finding phase. A promising attempt. � Necessity for a real Paradigm Shift: Need for Necessity for a real Paradigm Shift: Need for � breakthrough technologies clearly identified. breakthrough technologies clearly identified. � Uncertainty on how to extrapolate from empirical know Uncertainty on how to extrapolate from empirical know � how and data to forecast future system behavior when how and data to forecast future system behavior when this shift is taking place. this shift is taking place. � Consensus that new role assignment of ATM players, Consensus that new role assignment of ATM players, � enabled by air & ground automation, is needed to enabled by air & ground automation, is needed to provide requested capacity provide requested capacity � Future ATM System must (still) work in disrupted � Future ATM System must (still) work in disrupted conditions safely. conditions safely. Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 4 MD
Future research needs Future research needs � Find a useful (economical) way to allow for Find a useful (economical) way to allow for � communication with “ “Non ATM Beings Non ATM Beings” ”. . communication with � Find procedures and techniques on how to Find procedures and techniques on how to � forecast the “ “unknown unknown” ”. . forecast the � New system design includes new financing New system design includes new financing � strategies in challenging economic times. strategies in challenging economic times. � Innovative techniques to present complex Innovative techniques to present complex � information and situations to the ATM players. information and situations to the ATM players. � Find techniques to proof safe system behavior in Find techniques to proof safe system behavior in � disrupted mode. disrupted mode. Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 5 MD
Self Criticism Self Criticism � The INNO Track did not really reflect its original The INNO Track did not really reflect its original � intent: intent: � Some papers could easily be grouped elsewhere � Some papers could easily be grouped elsewhere � Some had a greater maturity level than expected � Some had a greater maturity level than expected � Recommendation: Reexamine for the INNO track. Recommendation: Reexamine for the INNO track. � If the INNO track continues: If the INNO track continues: � Encourage Research Community to share Paradigm � Encourage Research Community to share Paradigm changing concepts earlier changing concepts earlier � Rather forget (a bit) about how the transition path will � Rather forget (a bit) about how the transition path will have to look: Let us be more open Minded ! have to look: Let us be more open Minded ! Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 6 MD
QNAs QNAs The floor is open The floor is open Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 7 MD
Statistical Performance Statistical Performance � Station keeping (A/C Station keeping (A/C – – A/C) to optimize landing A/C) to optimize landing � sequences (linear/non linear feedback loop). sequences (linear/non linear feedback loop). Statistical Performance Evaluation for both loops. Statistical Performance Evaluation for both loops. � Both loops deliver similar results for minimum Both loops deliver similar results for minimum � distance but non linear slightly better for speed distance but non linear slightly better for speed variation. All better compared to the “ “no loop no loop variation. All better compared to the scenario” ” scenario � Speed variation during maneuvers not yet tackled. Speed variation during maneuvers not yet tackled. � Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 8 MD
Delay Propagation Delay Propagation � BN to verify delay. � BN to verify delay. � Pure statistical data (expertise may be included). How to use this is � Pure statistical data (expertise may be included). How to use th model for future configurations of the ATM system ? model for future configurations of the ATM system ? � Downstream/Upstream effects considered through BN (delay as waves s � Downstream/Upstream effects considered through BN (delay as wave through the system) through the system) � Scenarios: How to assure that all assumptions fit to each other ? (delay ? (delay � Scenarios: How to assure that all assumptions fit to each other set high at XYZ, VMC/IMC conditions downstream) ? set high at XYZ, VMC/IMC conditions downstream) ? � � No casual explanation of modifications done. Scenarios only may help help No casual explanation of modifications done. Scenarios only may to understand NAS behavior on some constraints to understand NAS behavior on some constraints � Critical step to set up the probabilities. How to validate ? � Critical step to set up the probabilities. How to validate ? � Twofold feeling in the session. � Twofold feeling in the session. � Approach should be compared to the micro level (Individual aircraft aft � Approach should be compared to the micro level (Individual aircr being traced). being traced). Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 9 MD
Route Charging Charging Route � We see how route charges are being computed (SU). Full We see how route charges are being computed (SU). Full � cost recovery principle (follow up process). cost recovery principle (follow up process). � Go away from this principle not yet discussed. Go away from this principle not yet discussed. � � Unit rates do vary tremendously over the states (even Unit rates do vary tremendously over the states (even � within CEATS) within CEATS) � 30% of the costs go to CEATS. 30% of the costs go to CEATS. � � Charging differently: Scenarios presented. Charging differently: Scenarios presented. � � Low Unit rate in AUS means extremely high rates in the Low Unit rate in AUS means extremely high rates in the � LAS: hits „ „Regional Airlines Regional Airlines“ “ LAS: hits � Eurocontrol Eurocontrol / EU will have to decide. / EU will have to decide. � � CEATS is dramatically changing economically CEATS is dramatically changing economically – – theses theses � scenarios are still under consideration ? scenarios are still under consideration ? Thursday, July 14, 2005 6th USA/Europe ATM R&D Seminar - Baltimore, INNO Track - Hartmut Fricke 10 MD
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