Infrastructure funding in LLDCs and transit countries in South America Azhar Jaimurzina Chief, Infrastructure Services Unit Natural Resources and Infrastructure Division ECLAC | United Nations
ECLAC and Infrastructure Development of LLDCs Policy recommendations Estimating Investment needs Measuring infrastructure investment Monitoring infrastructure Case studies and technical assistance performance
ECLAC and Infrastructure Development of LLDCs Policy recommendations Estimating Investment needs Measuring infrastructure investment Monitoring infrastructure Case studies and technical assistance performance
Perception of infrastructure performance in South America Logistic Performance by regions, 2016 Infrastructure Quality, 2007- 2016 5.00 5.00 3.75 3.75 2.50 1.8468 1.8468 2.50 1.542 1.542 1.53 1.53 1.87 1.87 1.4288 1.4288 1.77 1.77 1.75 1.75 1.68 1.68 1.2243 1.2243 1.42 1.42 1.0098 1.0098 1.25 1.25 0.00 0.00 Customs International shipments Tracking and Tracing 2007 2010 2012 2014 2016 Best performance (Germany) Average Latin America Gap Best performance Average Latin America Gap Quality of Infrastructure in LLDCs and Transit countries in South America, 2016 3.20 2.40 1.60 0.80 0.00 Chile Uruguay Peru Bolivia (Plur. State of) Infrastructure Quality Average Latin America Source: ISU/NRID, ECLAC, based on data from World Bank, Connecting to Compete 4
Measuring infrastructure provision in LLDCs and transit countries: Current Situation LLDCs and Transit countries in South America and selected regions: Road density, 2015 (per 100 km2) 200 150 100 50 0 Argentina Brazil Peru Uruguay Germany OECD (Europe) Road density (per 100 km) Average for Latin America LLDCs and Transit countries in South America: Road infrastructure LLDCs and Transit countries in South America: Road density, 2007- 2015 state and composition (per 100 km) 200 40.0 120 106.3492 106.3492 90 30.0 150 60 20.0 100 30 12.3656 12.3656 2.5316 2.5316 1.0753 1.0753 0.7527 0.7527 1.3514 1.3514 10.0 -2.7778 -2.7778 50 0 0.0 -30 0 Argentina Brazil (Plur. State of) Peru Uruguay Argentina Brazil Peru 2007 2015 Percentage change Paved Not Paved Secondary and Terciary network Source: ISU/NRID, ECLAC, based on official data, for 2015 or latest year available 5
Contribution of international freight to the total costs of imports imports of LLDCs and Transit countries 9.8 10 8.4 7.8 7.3 7.1 7.1 7 7.5 6.7 6.3 6.3 5.2 5 5 5 4.9 5 4.2 2.5 0 Argentina Brasil Uruguay Chile Perú Bolivia Paraguay 15.8 16 12.4 12 9.7 9 8.9 8.6 8.2 8.3 8 7.5 8 7.3 7.2 6.8 6.3 6.3 5.6 5.4 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.4 4 3 2.9 2.4 0 carretero fluvial 2000 2010 Inland Water Road 2014 Source; Base de Datos de Transporte Internacional, ECLAC, 2016
ECLAC and Infrastructure Development of LLDCs Policy recommendations Estimating Investment needs Measuring infrastructure investment Monitoring infrastructure Case studies and technical assistance performance
Latin America: Infrastructure Investment by Source, 1980-2015 (Percentage of GDP) Source: ISU/CEPAL based on a 1980 - 2006: Calderón, César y Luis Servén, (2010), “Infrastructure in Latin America”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 5317, Washington, D.C., Banco Mundial. b 2007 - 2015: INFRALATAM. Note: a Includes: Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú. Year 2015 does noti include Chile. b Includes: transport, energy, telecommunicacions, water and sanitation.
Infrastructure Financing in South America Innovative mechanisms Domestic sources External sources and other forms of financing Multilateral Investment Facility Public Development for Latin America Budget (LAIF) Banks Project Finance Regional National (PF) - Special infrastructure Purpose Vehicle Banks funds (SPV) Subregional Bonds of social PPPs and bilateral impact Banks ODA Source: Cipoletta Tomassian, C., Financiamiento de la infraestructura para la integración regional FDI Alternativas para América del Sur, 2015
LLDCs in South America : Infrastructure Investment, 2008 -2015 (Percentage of GDP) 9.00 Bolivia (Plur. State of) 6.75 4.50 2.25 0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Infrastructure Transport Energy Paraguay 7.00 5.25 3.50 1.75 0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Infrastructure Transport Energy Source: ISU/ECLAC based on INFRALATAM 10
Infrastructure Investment and Infrastructure Development 100 70.00 Increase in the total road length (porentage) 96.0886 66.0458 Increase in the paved roads (porcentage) 52.50 80.1101 75 59.2456 35.00 50 39.0955 36 17.50 25 18.8865 24.5075 23.2943 14.341 13.7031 21.4286 12.7663 12.3756 10.9369 11.0153 17.9887 15.6123 15.0258 8.3944 10.328 3.7937 '- 3.0162 0 0 0 7.5 15 22.5 30 0 7.5 15 22.5 30 total investment in road infrastructure (porcentage of Total investment in road infrastructure (Porcentage of GDP) GDP) Source: ISU/ECLAC based on INFRALATAM, 2017 11
ECLAC and Infrastructure Development of LLDCs Policy recommendations Estimating Investment needs Measuring infrastructure investment Monitoring infrastructure Case studies and technical assistance performance
New Infrastructure and Maintenance Needs for the period 2016-2030 Scenario 1: GDP growth of 1.4% En % of GDP Sector New investment Maintenance Total Transport (Roads and 0,3 0,3 0,7 rail) 0,4 0,3 0,7 Electricity Telecommunicacions 0,4 0,9 1,3 Water and sanitation 0,8 0,3 1,1 Total 1,9 1,9 3,7 Scenario 1: GDP growth of 2.5% En % of GDP Sector New investment Maintenance Total Transport (Roads and rail) 0,9 0,4 1,3 0,9 0,4 1,3 Electricity Telecommunicacions 0,5 0,9 1,4 Water and sanitation 0,9 0,3 1,1 Total 3,1 2,0 5,1
New Infrastructure and Maintenance Needs for the period 2016-2030 Scenario 3: GDP growth of 3.2% En % of GDP Sector New investment Maintenance Total Transport (Roads and rail) 1,3 0,4 1,7 1,3 0,4 1,7 Electricity Telecommunicacions 0,6 0,9 1,5 Water and sanitation 0,9 0,3 1,2 Total 4,1 2,0 6,1 Scenario 1: GDP growth of 3.9% En % of GDP Sector New investment Maintenance Total Transport (Roads and rail) 1,7 0,5 2,2 1,8 0,4 2,2 Electricity Telecommunicacions 0,7 0,9 1,6 Water and sanitation 1,0 0,3 1,3 Total 5,2 2,1 7,4
Infrastructure Investment Needs in the BAU scenarios (En miles de millones de USD de 2010): 2016 - 2030 9,000 6,750 5,942 4,500 4,290 2,978 1,451 2,250 0 Scenario 1,4% Scenario 2,5% Scenario 3,2% Scenario 3,9% Transport (road and rail) Energy (electricity) Telecommunications Water and sanitation Gap
ECLAC and Infrastructure Development of LLDCs Policy recommendations Estimating Investment needs Measuring infrastructure investment Monitoring infrastructure Case studies and technical assistance performance
ECLAC and Infrastructure Development of LLDCs: Policy Recommendations I. Specific recommendations on infrastructure development and maintenance ❑ Promoting increase in public investment intended for the creation of new infrastructure, and programmes for transport infrastructure maintenance ❑ Facilitating compliance with transit rules and improving infrastructure quality ❑ Improving and maintaining railway infrastructure (tracks and rolling stock) ❑ Improving the navigability of inland water routes, including signalling, maintenance and channel-widening projects II. Recommendations on infrastructure Financing ❑ Increase the level and the efficiency of the public infrastructure investments: ❑ Integration of sectoral policies ❑ Contra cyclical investments ❑ Multi-criteria evaluation ❑ Build upon the region’s extensive and rich experience with the PPP in infrastructure ❑ Improve the overall quality of institutional processes on the selection, implementation and evaluations of infrastructure projects
ECLAC and Infrastructure Development of LLDCs: Policy Recommendations I. Specific recommendations on infrastructure development and maintenance ❑ Promoting increase in public investment intended for the creation of new infrastructure, and programmes for transport infrastructure maintenance ❑ Facilitating compliance with transit rules and improving infrastructure quality ❑ Improving and maintaining railway infrastructure (tracks and rolling stock) ❑ Improving the navigability of inland water routes, including signalling, maintenance and channel-widening projects
ECLAC and Infrastructure Development of LLDCs: Policy Recommendations II. Recommendations on infrastructure Financing ❑ Increase the level and the efficiency of the public infrastructure investments: ❑ Integration of sectoral policies ❑ Contra cyclical investments ❑ Multi-criteria evaluation ❑ Build upon the region’s extensive and rich experience with the PPP in infrastructure ❑ Improve the overall quality of institutional processes on the selection, implementation and evaluations of infrastructure projects
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