Information provided by JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIVERSITY Center for - PDF document

Information provided by JACKSONVILLE STATE UNIVERSITY Center for Economic Development and Business Research School of Business & Industry

Connecting Our Greater Communities: Overview • CEAZ Update (#2-#75) – Mark Hearn - JSU SOBI • State of Alabama Update (#76-#128) – Richard Cobb - JSU SOBI • Regional & National Update (To and Beyond) – Lesley McClure – Vice President and Regional Executive with Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Birmingham Branch 1 CEAZ Members: Calhoun 2 4 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

CEAZ Members: Clay 3 CEAZ Members: Cleburne 4 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 5

CEAZ Members: St. Clair 5 CEAZ Members: Talladega 6 6 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Economic Outlook Surveys for United States and Alabama United States Alabama 7 U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jan 2013 – July 2017 (Prelim) 100 90 80 Last 12 Months +3.44% 70 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 8 Source: University of Michigan Institute of Social Research Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 7

• State Survey – 3rd Quarter 2017 • Approximately 172 business executives • Operated by University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research • cber.cba.ua.edu 9 Overall Economic Outlook for AL Q2 17 vs to Q3 17 70% 60% 55.0% % of Respondents 50% 40% 33.3% 30% 20% 6.4% 10% 4.7% 0.6% 0% Much Worse Worse Remain Same Better Much Better 10 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 8 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Overall Economic Outlook Index AL Q2 15 – Q3 17 Q3 17 Index 70 Down 3.6 pts 65.2 65 62.7 61.6 Index Value 60 57.6 55.1 54.8 55 53.0 52.6 52.4 51.2 50 45 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 11 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Hiring Outlook AL Q2 17 vs Q3 17 60% 49.1% % of Respondents 45% 39.8% 30% 15% 6.4% 2.9% 1.8% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 12 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 9

Hiring Outlook Index AL Q2 15 – Q3 17 Q3 17 Index 65 Down 1.8 pts 60.7 58.9 60 Index Value 57.6 56.8 54.3 53.8 55 52.8 51.9 51.6 50.2 50 45 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 13 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Sales Outlook AL Q2 17 vs Q3 17 70% 60% 53.2% % of Respondents 50% 40% 30.4% 30% 20% 8.8% 5.3% 10% 2.3% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 14 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index 10 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Sales Outlook Index AL Q2 15 – Q3 17 Q3 17 Index 70 67.2 Down 4.6 pts 63.4 65 62.6 62.3 Index Value 60.1 58.4 60 55.9 55.2 54.9 55 53.1 50 45 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 15 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Capital Expenditures Outlook AL Q2 17 to Q3 17 70% % of Respondents 60% 49.7% 50% 39.2% 40% 30% 20% 5.8% 10% 4.1% 1.2% 0% Strong Moderate No Change Moderate Strong Decrease Decrease Increase Increase 16 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 11

Capital Expenditures Outlook Index AL Q2 15 – Q3 17 Q3 17 Index 65 Down 2.1 pts 61.9 59.8 60 58.5 Index Value 55.4 54.2 55 53.4 53.1 52.3 52.0 51.5 50 45 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 17 Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index Cheaha Economic Activity Zone (CEAZ): Overview • Population Trends (#19-#24) • Income (#25-33) • Sales Tax Revenues (#34) • Labor Force Statistics (#35-#74) 18 Dr. Mark Hearn, JSU School of Business and Industry 12 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Population Trends Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands 120 118.4 117.8 117.3 116.7 118 In 1,000 115.9 115.6 116 114.6 112.8 113.4 114.1 114 112 110 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Trends Clay County 2007-2016 in Thousands 14.1 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 In 1,000 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 13

Population Trends Cleburne County 2007-2016 in Thousands 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.8 In 1,000 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.4 14.2 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Trends St. Clair County 2007-2016 in Thousands 90 88.0 88 87.1 86.7 86.3 85.6 85.5 In 1,000 86 84 83.0 82.4 82 81.2 79.3 80 78 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 22 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 14 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Population Trends Talladega County 2007-2016 in Thousands 83 82.0 81.8 81.8 82 In 1,000 81.3 81.1 80.9 81 80.2 80.5 80.2 80.1 80 79 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 23 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Trends CEAZ 2007-2016 in Thousands 320 315 313 313 313 312 311 311 In 1,000 310 306 301 304 300 290 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 24 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 15

Per Capital Personal Income Calhoun County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $34 $33.4 $32.4 $31.4 $31.7 $31.3 $32 In 1,000 $30.7 $30.7 $30.1 $29.9 $30 $28.3 $28 $26 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 25 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Per Capital Personal Income Clay County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $34 $33.0 $31.7 $32 In 1,000 $30.5 $30 $29.5 $28.9 $28.4 $27.9 $28.1 $28.2 $28.3 $28 $26 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 26 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 16 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Per Capital Personal Income Cleburne County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $33 $29.9 $30.7 $31.2 $31 In 1,000 $29.1 $29 $27.3 $27.9 $26.8 $26.4 $27 $24.0 $24.7 $25 $23 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 27 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Per Capital Personal Income St. Clair County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $34 $33.4 $32.4 $31.4 $31.7 $31.3 $32 In 1,000 $30.7 $30.7 $30.1 $29.9 $30 $28.3 $28 $26 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 28 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 17

Per Capital Personal Income Talladega County 2006-2015 in 1,000s $33 $31.8 $30.8 $31 $28.7 $29.2 $29.6 In 1,000 $29 $27.7 $25.9 $26.4 $26.6 $26.6 $27 $25 $23 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 29 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ 2006-2015 in 1,000s $34 $32.8 $31.8 $32 In 1,000 $30.3 $30.7 $30 $29.4 $28.8 $28.6 $28.2 $27.7 $28 $26.9 $26 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 30 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 18 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ as % of AL 2006-2015 86.5% 86.2% 86.2% 86.2% 85.8% 86.0% 85.8% 85.5% 85.5% 85.4% 85.5% 85.1% 85.0% 84.7% 84.5% 84.0% 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 31 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis % Change in Per Capital Personal Income CEAZ 05-06 -14-15 8% 5.8% 6% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 4% 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2% 0.9% 0% -2% -1.2% -2.0% -4% 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 32 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 19

$714 $671 $813 Ave Weekly Wages 2 nd Qtr 2016 $848 U.S. Avg - $989 $619 $733 AL Avg - $835 $649 – or lower $650 - $749 $750 - $849 $850 or higher Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics 33 State Sales Tax Collections CEAZ FY 08-09 – FY 15-16 in $ Millions $57.87 $58.69 $58.30 $60 $55 In $ Millions $52.32 $50.32 $50 $47.35 $45 $43.07 $42.63 $40 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 Source: AL Dept of Revenue 34 20 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone

Labor Force Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands 54.9 54.6 56 53.9 51.6 51.3 52 In 1,000 49.6 48.3 47.3 48 46.0 45.8 44 40 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 35 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Labor Force Calhoun County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands 46.4 46.1 45.9 In 1,000 46.0 45.9 45.8 45.8 45.8 45.8 45.7 45.7 45.7 45.6 45.6 45.6 45.6 45.2 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 36 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Cheaha Economic Activity Zone 21

Employment Calhoun County 2007-2016 in Thousands 54 52.7 51.5 52 50 In 1,000 47.9 48 46.0 45.3 45.7 46 44.0 43.5 44 42.8 42.7 42 40 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 37 Source: Department of Labor Statistics Employment Calhoun County June 16 – June 17 in Thousands 44.0 43.4 43.4 43.5 43.1 43.1 In 1,000 42.8 42.8 43.0 42.7 42.8 42.6 42.7 42.7 42.5 42.5 42.2 42.0 41.5 Jun16 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun17 38 Source: Department of Labor Statistics 22 Cheaha Economic Activity Zone