IMPACT OF THE ROHINGYA CRISIS ON HOST COMMUNITIES IN COX’S BAZAR AND BANDARBAN DISTRICTS POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (PRI) OF BANGLADESH COX’S BAZAR, 7 MAY 2018
BACKGROUND An estimated 1.1 million Rohingya people fled to Bangladesh from August 2017 T ook shelter mostly in Cox’s Bazaar district and some in Bandarban Rohingya refugees are at least one- third of the host population in CXB Rohingya refugees in Ukhiya upazila is estimated about three times the local population.
ASSESSMENT AREAS FOR THE STUDY Identifying socio-economic impacts on host communities Impact on the public goods and services delivery capacity Identifying challenges and potential scopes for expanding Social Safety Net programmes.
ASSESSMENT AREA 1: SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE ROHINGA CRISIS ON HOST COMMUNITIES
T o analyze current and potential medium and long term economic impacts on host communities. OBJECTIVES T o help design evidence-based policies encompassing different time and circumstantial parameters. T o find potential areas and right/optimal programmatic instruments for UNDP
METHODOLOGY Instruments: primary survey and FGDs Data generation strategies A household-level survey in Cox’s Bazar and a qualitative assessment in Bandarban.
A PRIMARY SURVEY IN COX’S BAZAR • T wo-stage stratified random sampling • With 416,000 Cox’s Bazar households, a 5% margin of error and 95% confidence level – the minimum number of households to be surveyed is estimated to be 385. • Targeted sample size: 450 households • Defined weights by population sizes for the upazilas to select sample • First stage: Using weights, the number of households per upazila • Second stage: From upazila to mouza levels for randomly selected households
IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY • 5- or a 10-kilometres radius be the most affected areas • Households close to affected areas ( treatment group) • Households at further distances ( control group). • Data collection following a recall method could be subject to limitations • Measures will be employed to redress potential recall bias (e.g. adopting appropriate ‘wash out period, and training of enumerators on cross-checking)
ROW Rohingya Economy Host Economy ROW Host Economy Goods Real Estate T ourism Aid Profits Rohingya Remote Nearest Transport Hosts Hosts LEE Labour Remittances Goods and Services Wages Deforestation Groundwater Depletion Drinking water Production – Agriculture, livelihoods, suppressed fishing opportunities
QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT IN BANDARBAN • Qualitative tools: 5-10 FGDs in the Bandarban district (in and around Naikhonchhari area) • Target groups: local traders, school teachers, local administrators, health care service providers and others • Each FGD will contain 6-10 respondents (including women) • A semi-structured questionnaire will be the key basis for these FGDs
Affected sectors and socio-economic groups Potential areas of actions for UNDP (in collaboration with others) to be identified IDENTIFYING GAPS FOR Design evidence-based policy suggestions from alternative choices using different time and OPTIMAL circumstantial parameters INTERVENTIONS Consider the potential risk factors, socio- economic dynamics and other local contexts Given the policy interventions, monitoring and evaluation frameworks will be prepared
IMPACT ASSESSMENT: WINNERS AND LOSERS Host communities Producers Consumers Traders Labourers Society Goods leakages from camps Goods demanded by camp residents Labour supplies from camps Water resources used in camps Forest resource used by camp
ASSESSMENT AREA 2: COX’S BAZAR PUBLIC SERVICE AND PUBLIC GOODS DELIVERY CAPACITY
OBJECTIVES • Identify key public service delivery departments • Assess the capacity of service delivery institutions • Identify service delivery chains and their bottlenecks • Develop a system of ensuring quality service delivery • Project potential future demands of services • Identify coordination system and areas of improvement • Identify best practices and areas of its replication • Prepare proposal for a Multi-Year Action Plan
METHODOLOGY FOR GATHERING INFORMATION • Interviews with the government officials, including Divisional Commissioner, Deputy Commissioner, Upazila Nirbahi Officer, Civil Surgeon etc., as required. • Consultation with development partners and NGOs • Drawing comparisons between the districts and Upazilas engaged in addressing the Rohingya crisis with other Districts/Upazilas devoid of Rohingya influx. • Performance review (in addressing the Rohingya crisis) of different departments, with a view to Identify required capacity enhancements and service delivery improvements
ASSESSMENT AREA 3: SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMMES DELIVERY IN COX’S BAZAR: BOTTLENECKS AND OPTIONS FOR EXPANSION TO ADDRESS CRISIS IMPACTS
OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGIES Summarize the impact of the SSN programmes in Cox’s Bazar over the last five-ten years preceding the Rohingya crisis Develop and use a Micro- Simulation Model for CXB HIES 2010 and 2016 will be used to specify the model Poverty measures will be estimated to quantify the impacts of SSN schemes over poverty and vulnerability in CXB.
Select the SSN programmes Identify Socio-economic - Use the data gathered from most suitable to address the groups in CXB the primary survey impact, estimate the number of beneficiaries and the cost b) Single SSN scheme alone may not be enough to address the a) Identification of vulnerable vulnerability. Hence a groups of Selection of SSN schemes: socio-economic groups will help SSN schemes will be proposed select core SSN schemes •Estimation of the number of beneficiaries and cost of implementation OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGIES
OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGIES 5. Identify similar to SSN programme - employment generation support could possibly be extended to Rohingya (in a temporary camp environment); and estimate the possible number of beneficiaries and the cost of such programme • Demand side: Interviews and discussions with local administration, NGOs and development partners will likely to identify types of work need to be accomplished for functioning of the camps • Supply side: Age and sex specific data of all Rohingya by camp • T o assess gaps between dd and ss • A costing module will be used to calculate the cost of the interventions
OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGIES 6. Estimate the overall cost and outline of the programmes under (4) and (5) • The estimated costs of the SSN schemes for the affected host communities and temporary employments for Rohingya community will be used to estimate the overall cost of interventions. The overall cost will consist (i) programme cost; and (ii) administration cost. 7. Assessment of operational capacities among line ministries and NGOs to implement the programme under (6) • Staff capacity assessment • Space capacity assessment • Office equipment assessment
THANK YOU.
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