I nt roduct ion t o SimCLI M Wei Ye The I nt er nat ional Global - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

I nt roduct ion t o SimCLI M Wei Ye The I nt er nat ional Global Change I nst it ut e Univer sit y of Waikat o

What is SimCLI M? • A resear ch pr oduct f r om New Zealand Climat e Change I mpact St udies (CLI MPACTS) • An int egr at ed comput er model f or climat e change impact assessment • Build-in cust omised GI S syst em t o suppor t mult i- level spat ial analysis • Based on I PCC guidelines and upgr adeable wit h lat est scient if ic r esear ch inf or mat ion.

Why Develop int egrat ed assessment model ? Some Background: • Climat e change is REAL and it s impact has been f elt by people all over t he wor ld • High demand f rom t he st akeholder s t o include climat e change impact inf ormat ion int o t heir decision making

Why Develop int egrat ed assessment model ? Some Background: • Model based approach have helped st udy t he global warming, it s impact and evaluat e t he possibilit y of mit igat ion and adapt at ion possibilit y in t he past and in t he f oreseeable f ut ure • GCMs are t he most comprehensive t ools f or est imat ing t he response of climat e t o r adiat ion f orcing • I t has been a challenge t o mainst ream such scient if ic inf ormat ion int o act ion, due t o t he uncer t aint ies of t he model and t he complexit y t o ref lect such uncert aint ies in policy-making process

What is t he challenge? Uncert aint ies!!!

What is t he challenge? • Uncert aint ies in f ut ure greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions • Uncert aint ies in global climat e sensit ivit y, due t o dif f erences in t he way physical processes and f eedbacks are simulat ed in dif f erent models • Uncert aint ies in regional climat e changes, which are apparent f rom t he dif f erences in regional est imat es of climat e

How t o t ackle t he problem in assessment models ? I PCC Task Gr oup on Dat a and Scenar io Suppor t f or I mpact and Climat e Assessment (TGI CA) Gener al guidelines on t he use of scenar io dat a f or climat e impact and adapt at ion assessment - The I PCC Dat a Dist ribut ion Cent re (DDC) - Met hods of impact assessment

How t o t ackle t he problem in assessment models ? • Dir ect using GCM simulat ion r esult in impact assessment � Keep model ’ s physical/ mat hemat ical consist ency � Pr ovide t r ansient simulat ion out put � Comput at ionally and r esour ce demanding � Pr ovide only one possible scenar io of t he f ut ur e t hat can not cover t he f ull r ange of t he uncer t aint ies • Nor malised Pat t er n Scaling met hod � Possibilit y t o r epr esent t he whole r ange of uncer t aint ies involved in f ut ur e climat e change pr oj ect ion � simple t o oper at e and comput at ionally f ast

St eps of t he met hod 1. The st andar dised pat t er n of climat e change f r om t he GCM is est imat ed by dividing individual gr id box changes by t he global mean war ming of t hat model exper iment , yielding a r at io 2. The magnit ude of global war ming by a specif ied dat e in t he f ut ur e is est imat ed f r om t he simple model f or a given emissions scenar io and a given climat e sensit ivit y 3. The pat t er ns of changes in dif f er ent climat ic var iables ar e mult iplied by t he global war ming value f r om st age 2 � � � � � � � T ( T T ) / ( GMT GMT ) gcm gcm gcm gcm gcm ( 2070 / 2099 ) ( 1960 / 1990 ) ( 2070 / 2099 ) ( 1960 / 1990 ) � � � � � T T T GMT gcm ( 1 ) gcm ( 0 ) gcm sebm ( 1 )

Weakness? A f undament al assumpt ion of t he scaling approach is t hat while t he magnit ude of climat e change alt ers over t ime in proport ion t o t he global warming, t he pat t ern of change f rom t he GCM remains const ant

SimCLI M st ruct ure Greenhouse gas MAGI CC emission scenarios Dat a Global Climat e Proj ect ion Scenario select ions Climat e and GCM pat t ern import Local Climat e -Synt het ic changes t oolbox average, variabilit y, ext remes - GCM pat t erns (present and f ut ure) USER I PCC CMI P (GCMs) “ Plug-in ” Models Biophysical I mpact s on: - Land dat a Agricult ure, Coast al, - Ot her spat ial dat a Human Healt h, Wat er I mpact Model

Advant ages of t he SimCLI M modelling approach • quick running and f lexible • spat ial and t emporal analyses • mult i-scale - nat ional, regional, sit es • Training – f or awareness raising • easily updat ed

Mult i-scale, open-f ramework syst em

Const r uct ing Climat e Change Scenar ios: spat ial Key uncer t aint ies: • Regional variat ions 1990 brings up baseline • Emission scenario climat e • Climat e sensit ivit y Scenario years up t o 2100 Climate feedbacks

Const r uct ing Climat e Change Scenar ios: sit e specif ic

SimCLI M can be used t o SimCLI M can be used t o • Describe baseline climat es • Describe baseline climat es • Examine current climat e variabilit y and • Examine current climat e variabilit y and ext remes ext remes • Assess risks – present and f ut ure • Assess risks – present and f ut ure • I nvest igat e adapt at ion – present and f ut ure • I nvest igat e adapt at ion – present and f ut ure • Creat e climat e change scenarios • Creat e climat e change scenarios • Conduct sensit ivit y analyses • Conduct sensit ivit y analyses • Examine • Examine sect oral sect oral impact s impact s • Examine uncert aint ies • Examine uncert aint ies • Facilit at e int egrat ed impact analyses • Facilit at e int egrat ed impact analyses

Thank You! weiye@waikat o.ac.nz