HTGR Potential Market and HTGR Potential Market and Preliminary Economics Briefing for Nuclear Energy Advisory Committee N l E Ad i C itt Phil Hildebrandt Phil Hildebrandt September 2010 gov www.inl.g [insert optional photo(s) here] [insert optional photo(s) here] w
Outline • Potential market for HTGR produced energy • Evaluations of HTGRs integrated with industrial processes • Possible business model for HTGR process heat to industry P ibl b i d l f HTGR h t t i d t • Economic analyses for industrial applications • Conclusions and uncertainties Conclusions and uncertainties 1
Energy Production and Consumption in U.S. – gy p the Potential Market U.S. Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009 U.S. Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009 U.S. Primary Energy Flow by Source and Sector, 2009 (Quad -- Quadrillion (1x10 15 ) Btu) (Quad -- Quadrillion (1x10 15 ) Btu) (Quad -- Quadrillion (1x10 15 ) Btu) U.S. Greenhouse Gas U.S. Greenhouse Gas U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 2009 Emissions by Sector, 2009 Emissions by Sector, 2009 (Million metric tons, CO (Million metric tons, CO (Million metric tons, CO 2 equivalent 2 equivalent 2 equivalent AEO 2010, May 2010) AEO 2010, May 2010) AEO 2010, May 2010) Residential Residential Residential 1194 Mt 1194 Mt 1194 Mt Transportation Transportation Transportation 1845 Mt 1845 Mt 1845 Mt Commerical Commerical Commerical 1034 Mt 1034 Mt 1034 Mt Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial Industrial 1434 Mt 1434 Mt 1434 Mt 5507 Mt Total 5507 Mt Total 5507 Mt Total 1 Does not include biofuels that have been blended with petroleum 1 Does not include biofuels that have been blended with petroleum 1 Does not include biofuels that have been blended with petroleum —biofuels are included in “Renewable Energy." —biofuels are included in “Renewable Energy." —biofuels are included in “Renewable Energy." 2 Excludes supplemental gaseous fuels. 2 Excludes supplemental gaseous fuels. 2 Excludes supplemental gaseous fuels. 3 Includes less than 0.1 quadrillion Btu of coal coke net exports. 3 Includes less than 0.1 quadrillion Btu of coal coke net exports. 3 Includes less than 0.1 quadrillion Btu of coal coke net exports. 4 Conventional hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar/PV, wind, an 4 Conventional hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar/PV, wind, an 4 Conventional hydroelectric power, geothermal, solar/PV, wind, an d biomass. d biomass. d biomass. 5 Includes industrial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and industrial electricity -only plants. 5 Includes industrial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and industrial electricity -only plants. 5 Includes industrial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and industrial electricity -only plants. 6 Includes commercial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and commercial electricity -only plants. 6 Includes commercial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and commercial electricity -only plants. 6 Includes commercial combined -heat-and-power (CHP) and commercial electricity -only plants. 7 Electricity-only and combined -heat-and-power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity 7 Electricity-only and combined -heat-and-power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity 7 Electricity-only and combined -heat-and-power (CHP) plants whose primary business is to sell electricity , or electricity and heat, to the public. , or electricity and heat, to the public. , or electricity and heat, to the public. Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r Note: Sum of components may not equal total due to independent r ounding. ounding. ounding ounding ounding. ounding Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2009, Tables 1.3, 2.1b -2.1f , 10.3, and 10.4. Annual Energy Review 2009, Tables 1.3, 2.1b -2.1f , 10.3, and 10.4. Annual Energy Review 2009, Tables 1.3, 2.1b -2.1f , 10.3, and 10.4. 2
Vulnerabilities of fossil fuel consumption (83% of today’s energy consumption in US) • Price volatility • Reliance on imports • GHG emissions GHG i i • Use of natural resources 3
Industrial Applications – the Principal Market The Opportunity — — Providing High Temperature Process Heat Providing High Temperature Process Heat The Opportunity and Electricity without Burning Hydrocarbon Fuels d El t i it ith t B i H d b F l and Electricity without Burning Hydrocarbon Fuels d El t i it ith t B i H d b F l Petrochemical (170 plants in U.S. – 6.7 quads*) Petroleum Refining (137 plant in U.S. – 3.7 quads) Fertilizers/Ammonia (23 plants in U.S. – 0.3 quads NH3 production) NH3 production) Coal ‐ to ‐ Liquids (24 – 100,000 bpd new plants ) Project 250 GW th HTGR application Hydrogen Production Oil Sands/Shale (60 – 600 MWt HTGR (43 – 600 MWt HTGR Modules) Modules) Modules) * Quad = 1x10 15 Btu (293 MM MW th ) annual energy consumption 4
Thermal Power Requirements for Postulated Market q Scoping evaluations performed for HTGR technology in industrial sector 75,000 MWth Co-Generation Supply of Process Heat to Industrial Processes (25% of Process Heat & Power, including electricity) 36,000 MWth for Production of Hydrogen (25% of growth in the merchant market) 25,800 MWth for Oil Sands Bitumen Recovery 25 800 MWth for Oil Sands Bitumen Recovery (25% of projected growth in energy required to extract & upgrade bitumen) 249,000 MWth for Coal to Transportation Fuels (Reduces imports by 25% of 2009 imports of crude oil – 9.1 MMBPD) 110,400 MWth for Electricity Production (10% of the nuclear electrical supply increase required to achieve pending (10% of the nuclear electrical supply increase required to achieve pending Government objectives for emissions reductions by 2050) 5
Postulated Deployment of HTGR Results in Stable Energy Prices, Secure Source and Reduced Emissions 12.00 2008 $s rice ($/MM Btu) energy HHV Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices exhibit high 10.00 DOE EIA Annual Energy volatility Outlook 2009 AUG09 futures 8.00 DOE EIA Energy HTGR Energy Prices affected only by normal HTGR Energy Prices affected only by normal calculated fit: 2% calculated fit: 2% Outlook 2008 ty User Natural Gas P DOE EIA Energy inflationary factors, (e.g., wages, material) Outlook 2007 6.00 DOE EIA Energy Outlook 2004 4.00 DOE EIA Energy Outlook 2002 2.00 Utilit 0.00 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Year 6
Emissions Reductions Co-Generation CO2 emissions are & Process Electricity Heat, 110 Mt Generation, reduced by ~400 million 146 Mt metric tons by 2050; ~7% Oil Sands, Coal/Biomass 37 Mt of pending Government to Fuel & Feedstock, 80 Mt objective Hydrogen Production, 16 Mt Natural Gas Conservation Natural Gas Conservation Natural gas combustion Reduce Oil Imports by Reduce Oil Imports by Co-Generation & Process is reduced by ~7 trillion is reduced by 7 trillion Heat, 2.1 Tscf Heat, 2.1 Tscf Electricity scf by 2050; ~30% of 25% of 2009 Rate Generation, 3.6 Tscf U.S. consumption in Oil Sands, 0.7 Tscf 2009 Reduces the need to import oil by ~2.5 million p y Hydrogen Production, barrels per day (on an energy equivalent basis). 0.4 Tscf Outflow of US dollars reduced by $150 million per day (based on an average $60/BBL price) 7
Evaluations of HTGR Integration with Industrial Processes • Co-Generation Supply of Steam, Electricity and High pp y , y g Temperature Gas • Ammonia and Ammonia Derivatives Production Ammonia and Ammonia Derivatives Production • Hydrogen Production • Conversion of Coal and Natural Gas to Transportation Fuels • Oil Recovery from Oil Sands and Oil Shale • Electricity Production 8
Possible Business Model Possible Business Model 9
Electricity and Steam Production Electricity and Steam Production Electricity Production Price Versus Comparing Price of Steam Generated by an HTGR and a CCGT versus Price of Natural Gas, $/Mwhe, and Carbon Credits, $/metric ton CO 2eq Price of Natural Gas and Cost of GHG Emissions Comparisonof Production Pricing for HTGR and CCGT Plants Comparison of Production Pricing for HTGR and CCGT Plants 35 35 160 CCGT 30 $50/MTCO 2 Cost CCGT, $50/MT 140 CO 2 Emissions Cost e, $/MWhe 25 1000lbs 120 Electricity Production Price Price of Steam, $/1 20 ~$4/MMBtu HTGR ~$4/MMBtu 100 HTGR 15 ~$8.5/MMBtu ~$7/MMBtu 80 10 CCGT No CO 2 Cost CCGT, No CO 2 E Emissions Cost i i 60 5 40 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Natural Gas Price, $/MMBtu Price of Natural Gas, $/MMBtu Economic Factors Economic Factors HTGR Plant Capital Cost $1,700/KWt CCGT Capital Cost $625/KWt Debt 80% Internal Rate of Return 15% Financing Interest Financing Interest 8% 8% Financing Term 20 years Tax Rate 38.9% 10
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