How to use ‘soft’ OA methods to explore future IED threat and their countermeasures 27 ISMOR 2010
Introduction Cause • Current threat around IED’s is continuously changing • Little known about possible future threat Goal • List the expected IED threat development • Explore possible countermeasures These countermeasures will support the Dutch military to do their jobs, as safe as possible, despite the changing threat. 2 27 ISMOR 2010
Approach Interactive sessions • Workshops intern TNO (researchers) • Workshop with military • Working sessions intern TNO • Interactive game (DTAG) Techniques used • Morphological analysis • Brainstorming • Creative methods, like tinker • Scenario analysis • DTAG 3 27 ISMOR 2010
Find possible new IEDs threats Interactive workshop • Create morphological box 4 27 ISMOR 2010
Morphological Analysis Steps • Specify your challenge • Select the corresponding parameters • List variations • Research all the possible solutions to the problem • Try different combinations (randomly) Example: Parameters Car Colour Tires Wheel Shocks Associati Variations es 5 27 ISMOR 2010
Possible new IEDs threats Interactive workshop • Create morphological box • Put morphological box away and think creative • “Out of the box” • Sketch/tinker an IED • Try different combinations from the morphological box Afterwards • Combine the ideas into scenarios • Use them as input for the next workshop 6 27 ISMOR 2010
Explore possible countermeasures Scenarios Play cards Morphological box 7 27 ISMOR 2010
IoS cards Goal of the workshops To create ‘Ideas of System’ Cards as an input for the DTAG • Each card represents an example of possible IED threat or a specific countermeasure • An IoS card contains for example: • Description and assumptions • Critical performances of the IoS • Technologies • Affordability • Acceptability • Training requirements • Studies and references 8 27 ISMOR 2010
Disruptive Technology Assessment Game Definition • Tabletop ‘war game’ to assess the potential added value of new technologies and systems Why • Create a bridge between the military and the researchers • Both parties bring in their expertise • Put on a trial (threat and countermeasures) on • usefulness and feasibility • Create a basis for the findings It is likely that the setting of a DTAG will lead to even more ideas about future IED threat and countermeasures. 9 27 ISMOR 2010
Game setting DTAG White team 1-2 senior military experts, 1-2 lead scientists, lead analyst Moderator(s) Red Team Blue Team 2/5 military operational 2/5 military operational experts, 1-2 scientists, experts, 1-2 scientists, 10 27 ISMOR 2010 analyst analyst
Game process (1) 11 27 ISMOR 2010
Game process DTAG (2) • Scenario is used as high level operational context White team • Within these scenario’s a number of operational/tactical vignettes is played Moderator(s) • Per vignette two rounds are played: 1. Baseline Round with conventional setting to define reference level 2. Round with Ideas of System (IoS- Cards) to assess � ’s • After all vignettes are played an 2.1 IoS-cards overall technology assessment is 1.3 Military lead confrontation 1.1.Present military order 2.3 Technology lead made analysis confrontation analysis 2.1 Present (same) military order 1.2. COA Planning 1.2. COA Planning 2.2. COA Planning (IoS cards can 2.2. COA Planning (IoS cards can be used) 12 be used) 27 ISMOR 2010 Blue Team Red Team
Analysis tool for DTAG: TARTAN ������������������������������������������������������������� 13 27 ISMOR 2010
Wrap up • Morphological analysis, brainstorming and creative methods helped to explore new ideas for possible future IED threat and countermeasures. • Starting with separate workshops for researchers and military helps to let them think in their own way. • The DTAG will help to: • create a bridge between researchers and military; • put on a trial on usefulness and feasibility of the findings. 14 27 ISMOR 2010
The insights in the possible future IED threat and their countermeasures support the Dutch military to do their jobs, as safe as possible, despite the changing threat. 15 27 ISMOR 2010
TNO Defence, Security and Safety Drs. Sanne Heesmans Oude Waalsdorperweg 63 PO Box 96864 2509 JG The Hague The Netherlands T +31 70 374 05 25 F +31 70 374 06 42 E Sanne.Heesmans@tno.nl 16 27 ISMOR 2010
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