How National Urbanization Trends Will Affect Rural Transit Funding - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

How National Urbanization Trends Will Affect Rural Transit Funding and “Trending Urban” Transit Systems in Georgia and the Nation after the 2020 Census Leigh Ann Trainer Laurie A. Garrow 11/20/2019

Outline • What’s up with Brunswick? • Review of urban and rural transit funding programs • Methodology for determining future 5311 and 5307 funding • Results • Recommendations for future funding 2

Predicted 5311 and 5307 Funding for Brunswick 3

Glynn County 5311 5307 5311 Difference 5307 Difference County 5311 Forecast 5307 Forecast (Forecast – FY19) (Forecast – FY19) Approp. Approp. 75% 50% 75% 50% 75% 50% 75% 50% FY19 FY19 0 mi ½ mi 0 mi ½ mi 0 mi ½ mi 0 mi ½ mi Glynn 204,146 667,852 192,009 160,653 720,823 660,734 -12,137 -43,493 52,971 -7,118 Currently Glynn county does not tap into 5307 funding but has submitted an application to Start 5307 service by FY20 See https://www.glynncounty.org/DocumentCenter/View/61729/Draft-BATS-FY-2020-UPWP 4

Review of Urban and Rural Transit Funding Regulations 5

Two key regulations re: Transit funding sources : An area’s Urban and Rural classifications determine it’s eligibility for Federal Transit Funding Grants 5311 5307 Rural Area Formula Grants Urbanized Area Formula Grants (49 U.S.C. 5311) (49 U.S.C. 5307)  provides capital, planning, and  federal resources available to operating assistance to states to urbanized areas and to governors support public transportation in for transit capital and operating assistance in urbanized areas rural areas 6

§ 5307 and § 5311 key details: 5307 Large Urban 5311 Rural 5307 Small Urban Population < 50,000 Population > 200,000 Population 50,000 – 200,000 • “ 100 bus rule”  Can use all 5311 funds • Can use all 5307 funds for dictates whether eligible for operating operating assistance for operating assistance List of UCs Predicted to Merge with other UCs or Urban Areas List of UCs Predicted to Merge with other UCs or Urban Areas assistance • Eligible for small transit  State DOT reports to intensive (STIC) funding • Sub-recipient NTD reports to NTD • Sub-recipient reports to • Must coordinate with NTD local MPO 7

MAP-21 introduced the “100 Bus Rule” MAP-21 maintains the existing criteria for use of 5307 funds for capital projects (operating expenses continue to be ineligible) in urban areas with a population greater than 200,000, while a new rule – the “100 bus rule” – has been included, allowing systems with 76-100 buses operating in peak service to use up to 50% of their 5307 funding for operating expenses and those operating 75 or fewer buses to use up to 75% for operating expenses. Small urbanized areas with population under 200,000 will continue to be able to use up to 100 percent of their 5307 funding for operating expenses. The law preserves current eligibility of preventive maintenance as a capital expenditure. - ATPA MAP 21: A Guide to Transit-Related Provisions 8

FAST ACT: Use of 5307 funds for operating expenses 5307 (2) The Secretary may make grants under this section to finance the operating cost of equipment and facilities for use in public transportation, excluding rail fixed guideway, in an urbanized area with a population of not fewer than 200,000, as determined by Bureau of Census – (A) for public transportation systems that – (i) operate 75 or fewer buses in fixed route service or demand responsive service, excluding ADA complementary paratransit service, during peak service hours, in an amount not to exceed 75 percent of the share of apportionment which is attributable to such systems within the urbanized area, as measured by vehicle revenue hours; or (ii) Operate a minimum of 76 buses and a maximum of 100 buses in fixed route service or demand responsive service, excluding ADA complementary paratransit service, during peak service hours, in an amount not to exceed 50 percent of the share of apportionment which is attributable to such systems within the urbanized area, as measured by vehicle revenue hours; or (… additional rules on max amount of funding) 9

How is “share of apportionment” determined? Table 3A used to determine vehicle revenue miles for bus systems in Georgia 10

There is a “two - year lag” on getting on Table 3A Certified data used in Report (and certify) Start 5307 FY 24 appropriations data to NTD service FY22 FY23 FY24 11

Methodology to predict future 5311 and 5307 funding by state 12

Methodology Predict changes in population and population density (50 state regression models) Use forecasts, Table 5 FTA data values, and NTD data to replicate FY19 5311 and 5307 funding and predict future funding for these programs Identify areas at high risk for losing FTA operating funding 13

State Regression Models of Urban Growth Variables we use to model urban growth:  Urban in 2000  Closer to a urbanized area or urbanized cluster?  Population density  Jobs  Proximity to urban Areas  Proximity to roads Predictions created for: • 50% probabilities and ½ mile to merge • 75% probability and 0 miles to merge 14

Rural Apportionment Formula (FTA) Use model forecasts for 2020 and most recent NTD data as inputs, along with FTA data values (Table 5) https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/docs/Visio- 15 5311_Apportionment_Flowchart_%283%29.pdf

FTA Data Values (Table 5) https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/docs/Visio- 16 5311_Apportionment_Flowchart_%283%29.pdf

Urban Apportionment Formula (FTA) NTD Table 3A used to determine vehicle revenue miles for bus systems Use model forecasts for 2020 and most recent NTD data as inputs, along with FTA data values (Table 5) 17

FTA Data Values (Table 5) … (more) 18

Results 19

Relative 5311 Relative Funding Appropriation Should Remain Steady Under Current Rules (Good News!) 20

Total 5311 Appropriation in Theory Should Decrease by 20-23% Conservative Forecast Aggressive Forecast Note: does not include 5340 funding 21

5307 Appropriation Should Increase for Many States Conservative Forecast Aggressive Forecast Note 1: for urban areas spanning multiple states, we assigned funding to the first state listed on the UAZ. Note 2: does not include 5340 funding. 22

Deeper Dive on the National Numbers Funding Source Current Predicted Difference % Difference (Population) Appropriation* Appropriation 5311 rural 629M 483M to 505M -124 to -146M -20% to -23% (<50K) 5307 small urban (50K- 402M 550M to 608M 148M to 206M 37% to 51% 200K) 5307 large urban 839M 1.035B to 1.044B 196M to 205M 23% to 24% (200K-1M) 5307 large urban (1M+) 3.38B 3.00B to 3.06B -316M to -358M -9% to -11% TOTAL 5.25B 5.13B to 5.16B -118M to -71M -1.4% to - 2.2% Note: This does not include the 5340 growing states and high density portion. The 5340 program is currently is about 12% of the total 5311 and 5430 combined appropriation and 4% of the total 5307 and 5340 combined appropriation. In FY19, an additional $570M was appropriated to the 5340 program (to be added to both 5311 and 5307 programs). 23

Georgia’s Overall Outlook Current Predicted Funding Source Difference % Difference Appropriation Appropriation 5311 rural 21.2M 15.9M to 16.3M -4.9M to -5.3M -23% to -25% 5311 and 5340 rural 24.2M 22.0M to 23.6M -546K to -2.2M -2.3% to -8.9% 5307 and 5340 urban 101M 106M to 107M 5.28M to 6.34M 5.2% to 6.3% Georgia has one of the highest 5340 appropriations in the U.S. If this funding continues, it will likely mitigate potential losses in the 5311 program. Note: The 5340 program is currently is about 12% of the total 5311 and 5430 combined appropriation and 4% of the total 5307 and 5340 combined appropriation. 24

High Risk Transitions from Rural to Small Urban: Georgia Case Study 25

Results: 2 rural systems will transition to small urbans 2 Urban Clusters may transition to Urban Areas via Population Growth (2020 urban population estimates in our model) 1. Winder (in 50% model) 2. Carrollton (in 50% model) 26

Results: 2 rural systems will merge with Savannah, which will become a large urban Through Growth and Absorption Savannah goes to Large Urban Category 2 Urban Clusters absorbed into Savannah UAZ via Urban Expansion: 1. Rincon (in 50% model & 75% model) 2. Buckhead (in 50% model) 27

Results: Macon and Warner-Robins would merge and become a large urban, but if Grandfathering Criteria applied then would remain separate Macon and Warner-Robins could merge Warner-Robins has no transit so it would start in the Large Urban category However, Census adopted a “grandfathering” rule in 2010 to prevent merging Urbanized Areas with existing MPOs. 28

Contiguous or near contiguous MPOs and UAs in Metro Atlanta after 2020 Census Cartersville and Gainesville would be predicted to merge if not for the 2010 “grandfathering” rule for Urbanized Areas. This rule does not apply to Urban Clusters, and there is no guarantee it will not change again in 2020. 29 (Census 2017). Map prepared with ESRI ArcMap 10.5.