How much have things changed ?
2017 1887 1952 NI Ulster (NI) NI Population 1.87 mil Population 1.7 mil (1.14 mil) Population 1.37 mil Births 23,075 Births 39,606 (31,188) Births 28,760 Deaths 16,036 Deaths 30,151 (23,983) Deaths 14,812 Deaths under 3,101 Deaths under 1 88 Deaths under 1,117 1 1 measles 0 measles 333 measles 8 scarlet fever 0 scarlet fever 243 scarlet fever 1 whooping cough 0 whooping cough 652 whooping cough 22 diptheria 0 diptheria 182 diptheria 0 diarrhoea and diarrhoea and diarrhoea and dysentry 23 dysentry 572 dysentry 116 cancer 4,581 cancer 823 cancer 2,101 old age n/a old age 5529 old age n/a bronchitis 400 bronchitis 3637 bronchitis 400 croup 1 croup 268 croup 0 accidents/ accidents/ accidents/ Negligence 1037 negligence 542 Negligence 423
2018 15,922 deaths
What does that look like in actual numbers of deaths per year?
What are the major causes of death at different ages ? N=2,485 N=276 N=7,261 N=5,772
Lif ife Exp xpectancy at bir irth in in Northern Ir Ireland by y gender 1900-02 to 2016-18 ( exp xpressed in in years and based on three year tim ime perio iods)
Northern Ir Ireland Lif ife Expectancy in in years at bir irth 1981-2018 by Gender in in sin ingle years (n (non zero axis)
Why do women live longer than men ? (2 (2015-17 data)
How do we compare within UK and is the same pattern visible ? Male Life Expectancy at birth 1980-2 to 2016-18 Female Life Expectancy at birth 1980-2 to 2016-18
Male Li Life expectancy across Europe – 2017 or la latest 84 82 80.4 79.5 80 78.3 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62
Within Northern Ir Ireland c change since 2012-14 14
Public Health England and Office of f National Statistics work 2018 • Since 2011 increases in life expectancy have slowed, and data from 2015-2017 indicates decreasing life expectancy for males in parts of the UK including in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. • Of concern are the significant discrepancies in life expectancy between areas of high and low deprivation. The gap has increased for males and females in England, Wales and Scotland, whilst narrowing slightly for males in Northern Ireland.
Gap in life expectancy between most and least deprived males and females 2015-2017
What driving the changes ? – some sugg ggested reasons b by commentators / / research • Data fallacy • Bad winter / flu • Older people starting to die – natural limit • Increased elderly = more demand on services – lack of supply creates unequal services to those worst off. • Vaccine denial • Impact of immigration • Reaching the limit of improvements re heart disease and smoking reductions • Impact of austerity policies – changes hitting most deprived areas harder • Beginning to see the impact of sedentary lifestyles / obesity? • US experience – ‘ deaths of despair’
Slowdown in male life expectancy growth: Cause of death changes between different periods Source: NI Health & Social Care Inequalities Monitoring System, DoH
Slowdown in female life expectancy growth: Cause of death changes between different periods Source: NI Health & Social Care Inequalities Monitoring System, DoH
Seasonality and more recent data 2500 2000 average 2006-2010 Deaths 2011 1500 per 2012 month 2013 1000 2014 2015 2016 500 2017 2018 0 2019P
Potentially avoidable premature mortality 2001-5 to 2013-17 Standardised Death rate Source: NI Health & Social Care Inequalities Monitoring System, DoH
Suicide and Undetermined In Intent deaths 2001- 2018 2018
Healthy life expectancy
BMJ editorial by Sir Michael Marmot • A health crisis is a social crisis • BMJ 2019; 365 doi: http s://doi.org/10.1136/b mj.l2278 (Published 24 May 2019)Cite this as: BMJ 2019;365:l2278
Sources : • Slide 5 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death • Slide 6 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death • Slide 7 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death • Slide 8 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2016to2018 ttps://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/bulletins/nationallifetablesunitedkingdom/2016to2018 • Slide 9 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/singleyearlifetablesuk1980to2018 • Slide 10 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18 • Slide 11 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/singleyearlifetablesuk1980to2018 • Slide 12 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18 • Slide 13 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18
Sources ctd • Slide 15 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-inequalities-annual-report-2019 • Slide 16 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18 • Slide 18 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18 • Slide 19 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/life-expectancy-northern-ireland-2016-18 • Slide 20 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/monthly-deaths • Slide 21 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-inequalities-annual-report-2019 • Slide 22 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death • Slide 23 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/registrar-general-annual-report-2018-cause-death • Slide 24 https://www.nisra.gov.uk/publications/suicide-statistics • Slide 25 https://www.health-ni.gov.uk/publications/health-inequalities-annual-report-2019
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