Housing in Metro Atlanta Samyukth Shenbaga, AICP, LEED AP The - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Housing in Metro Atlanta Samyukth Shenbaga, AICP, LEED AP

The National Picture

The Regional Picture

We Are At a Unique Moment for Change

The Atlanta Affordability Helped Fuel region has Region’s and State Growth added over 400,000 people since 2010. ARC forecasts the 20-county region to add 2.5 million by 2040.

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Source: National Association of Home Builders Q1_00 Q2_00 Q3_00 Q4_00 Q1_01 Q2_01 Q3_01 Q4_01 Q1_02 Q4_03 This is Our Competitive Advantage Q1_04 Q2_04 Q3_04 Q4_04 Q1_05 Q2_05 Q3_05 Q4_05 Percent of Homes Affordable To Median Household Income Q1_06 Q2_06 Q3_06 Q4_06 Q1_07 Q2_07 Q3_07 ATL Q4_07 Q1_08 Q2_08 Q3_08 Charlotte Q4_08 Q1_09 Q2_09 Q3_09 Q4_09 Chicago Q1_10 Q2_10 Q3_10 Q4_10 Q1_11 Dallas Q2_11 Q3_11 Q4_11 Q1_12 Q2_12 Houston Q3_12 Q4_12 Q1_13 Q2_13 Q3_13 Q4_13 Q1_14 Q2_14 Q3_14 Q4_14 Q1_15 Q2_15 Q3_15 Q4_15 Q1_16 Q2_16 Q3_16 Q4_16 Q1_17 Q2_17 Q3_17 Q4_17 Q1_18 Q2_18 Q3_18 Q4_18

In 2017, 31% Affordability in Metro Atlanta of all is Starting to Erode households ‘cost burdened’ St. Louis: 25% Dallas: 29% D.C.: 30% Atlanta: 31% Boston: 31% Chicago: 32% Bay Area: 33%

Cost-burdened Defining ‘Affordable’ households: Spend 30%+ of income on housing costs or 50%+ on housing and transportation

Cost-burdened Defining ‘Affordable’ in metro ATL: 23% homeowners with mortgage 47% of renters

What is affordable to Defining ‘Affordable’ you? $40,500 salary = $1,013 housing cost $28,800 salary = $720 housing cost

Most Lower-Income Households Spend More than Half Their Income on Housing 87.3% 74.3% 51.8% 31.3% 21.7% 3.8% Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies

Driver: Housing Costs Rising Average rent More Rapidly than Income increased 48% and wages only up 10% (2011-2016) Home prices have risen 6.2% in past year

Rent Growth Far Outpacing Wage Growth Earnings Rent 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Neighborhood Nexus, Zillow and BEA

Home Price Change 2013-2018

Driver: Housing Production Down Residential building permits are at about 1/3 pre-recession levels

Building Permits Way Off Residential Building Permits – Metro Atlanta 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Source: Neighborhood Nexus, SOCDS

Building Permits Way Off SANDY SPRINGS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019ytd Total Units 172 62 213 1169 1536 312 837 1446 546 77 Units in Single-Family Structures 50 62 213 352 252 137 204 372 477 77 Units in All Multi-Family Structures 122 0 0 817 1284 175 633 1074 69 0 Units in 2-unit Multi-Family Structures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Units in 3- and 4-unit Multi-Family Structures 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Units in 5+ Unit Multi-Family Structures 122 0 0 817 1284 175 633 1074 69 0 Source: Neighborhood Nexus, SOCDS

Driver: Loss of Affordable Units

Rents Significantly Higher for Newer Units; Vast Majority of Units Renting For Less than $1,000 Were Built in 2000 in Earlier (thus under threat) “Affordable “ Inventory By Year Built Asking Rent, 2-BR $2,500.00 $2,066 $2,000.00 Units Built % Units built All Units before 2000 before 2000 $1,572 $1,500.00 $1,210 $1,075 $1,000.00 Units Renting for $800 or less 117,997 105,402 89.3% $500.00 Units Renting for $0.00 All Units Built Year 2000 Built After 2000 Built Since 2012 $1,000 or less 266,750 223,858 83.9% or Before Source: Co-star

Metro Atlanta Driver: Transportation Costs residents on Complicate Affordability Picture average spend 63% of income on housing and transportation – 5 th highest in US Housing costs higher near major job centers

Transportation Costs Added To Housing Costs Complicates The Affordability Picture CNT – “Losing Ground” Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB

Housing Profile: Select Areas Source: ESRI BAO 2018, ARC RAG Mountain North South Fulton Variable Alpharetta Johns Creek Milton Park Sandy Springs Roswell Fulton Atlanta Fulton County 2018 Total Housing Units (Esri) 484,462 25,289 29,594 13,804 291 50,830 38,120 157,984 254,834 87,478 2018 Owner Occupied Housing Units (Esri) (%) 49.47% 59.54% 77.37% 77.64% 90.26% 44.38% 63.68% 61.01% 38.48% 58.89% 2018 Renter Occupied Housing Units (Esri) (%) 50.53% 40.46% 22.63% 22.36% 9.74% 55.62% 36.32% 38.99% 61.52% 41.11% 2018 Vacant Housing Units (Esri) (%) 11.76% 2.63% 2.30% 1.43% 8.25% 8.77% 4.38% 4.87% 15.73% 12.39% 2018 Median Home Value (Esri) $297,995 $371,170 $374,374 $483,827 $476,087 $488,224 $338,244 $389,263 $282,203 $172,395 2018 Average Home Value (Esri) $405,887 $433,011 $441,037 $545,014 $557,573 $649,382 $392,877 $486,678 $419,302 $210,929 23

How North Fulton Compares… Housing Values 24 Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

Sandy Springs Cost Burdens for Owners 25 Source: US Census ACS, via ARC RAG

Sandy Springs Cost Burdens for Renters 26 Source: US Census ACS, via ARC RAG

North Fulton – Inflow/Outflow 27 Source: Census On the Map

Sandy Springs Inflow/ Outflow Source: Census On the Map

Workers Coming Into Sandy Springs: Distance & Direction Source: Census On the Map 29

Impact is both Regional and Personal

Many families The Impact: Traffic are priced out of living near major job centers The result: More cars on the road and more miles traveled

Families often The Impact: Schools move chasing cheaper rents The result: Instability in student population

The Impact: Struggling to Make Ends Meet

Regional Housing Strategy Educational. Analytical. Actionable

ARC Housing Work SUPPORTING PLANNING (Data research, (LCI studies, CATLYST , CDAP) TransFormation Alliance, GICH) CONVENING EDUCATING (Regional Housing Task Force, Regional Housing Forum, Advisory Council) (RLI, LINK, MARC, CPA)

REGIONAL HOUSING STRATEGY Educational: serve as a source of information for policy makers and the general public to learn and communicate about the basics of housing affordability. Analytical: provide a data portal to help communities understand their housing characteristics, issues, and opportunities. Actionable: provide local governments with a tool that helps identify local housing challenges and solutions.

Key Housing Strategies Preserve Expand Capital Promote Develop Increase Supply Affordable Reduce H+T Resources Housing Stability Leadership Supply

Extensive Engagement and Feedback • One-on-one meetings • Focus Groups: 1. Funders Collaborative 2. Development Community 3. Elected officials- MAMA 4. Data Council 5. Working Groups • Housing charette with cities and counties • Presentations • Research initiative with Georgia Tech

IN CONCLUSION - Housing affordability is an issue for ALL of us - Educate yourselves about issues and solutions - Build a broader coalition - Participate in local decision-making - Acknowledge differences and find common ground