OECD 16 th May 2013 Discussion of Helping Displaced Workers Back into Jobs by Maintaining and Upgrading their Skills Donald Storrie Head of Employment and Change Unit 1/10
% of employees saying that restructuring or re- organisation took place at their workplaces in previous 3 years 70 60 50 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 I T E I T E L R E T O R G S U E U Y L K T K E F S 7 K Z T V I I P P E D L N E B 2 F M S G H L R C C U D B A S L U E Source: EWCS 2010: Eurofound 2/10
Very limited previous international comparisons of displacement Peter Kuhn Ed (2002) “Losing Work, Moving On: International P t K h Ed (2002) “L i W k M i O I t ti l Perspectives on Worker Displacement” Upjohn Institute, 2002 Eurofound (2012) “After restructuring: labour markets, working conditions and life satisfaction” ERM Report 2012 Eurofound 3/10
Very many case studies with some with policy perspectives – maybe only two evaluations (with counterfactual) y y ( ) Winter-Ebmer, R. (2006), “Coping with a structural crisis: evaluating an innovative redundancy retraining project”, International Journal of Manpower, Vol. 27 Nos 7-8, d d t i i j t” I t ti l J l f M V l 27 N 7 8 pp. 700-21. Henry Ohlsson, Donald Storrie, (2012),"Long-term effects of public policy for Henry Ohlsson, Donald Storrie, (2012), Long term effects of public policy for displaced workers in Sweden: Shipyard workers in the west and miners in the north", International Journal of Manpower, Vol. 33 Iss: 5 pp. 514 – 538 4/10
First time ever same question asked First time ever same question asked in all Member States about job loss in all Member States about job loss E Eurobarometer survey between b t b t 25 May and 17June 09 Representative sample of c.a. 1000 people in each MS 000 peop e eac S “ Please tell me whether or not each of the following situations has happened to you as a result has happened to you, as a result of the economic crisis “. One possible response was p p “ You lost your job”. 5/10
Job loss rates in the Job loss rates in the European Union European Union European Union European Union Sex Cohabitation status Male 14.4% Couple 13.2% F Female l 13 8% 13.8% Si Single l 17.6% 17 6% Age Lone Parent 19 - 24 years 21.1% Not lone parent 13.9% 25 - 34 years 13.4% Lone parent 16.4% 35 - 44 years 12.4% % Highest level of education attained 45 - 54 years 14.0% Below Upper Secondary 22.2% 55 - 64 years 15.8% Upper Secondary + PSNT 13.1% Foreign background Tertiary 7.9% Foreign background 18.3% Professional status Local born nationals 13.5% Professionals 7.4% Minority status White collar 10.5% not minority 13.2% Skilled blue collar 22.2% minority status 21.9% Unskilled blue collar 31.5% Health Tenure with last / current employer No chronic health issues 13.1% 0-1 yrs 39.7% Chronic health issues 23.6% 2 years 23.7% 3 years 20.9% Children in the household No children 15.6% 4 years 13.9% Children 12.7% 5+ years 10.9% 6/10
Recent job quality post displacement literature Leombruni, R., T. Razzolini, & F. Serti. (2013) “The pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of job displacement–The risky job of being back to work” European Economic Review. • Italian administrative data • propensity score matching propensity score matching They find • moderate earnings losses d t i l • 79% increase in workplace injuries. Worse working conditions is driven by the transition to new occupations g y p and the risk imposed by new work environments. 7/10
“Employment polarisation and job quality in the crisis” WAGES EDUCATION JOB YEARS YEARS QUALITY QUALITY Source: European Jobs Monitor 2013 8/10
Nature of the loss to the displaced worker Firm / job specific capital j p p • Seniority wages • Employment protection • Skills • Match specific capital – a career even 9/10
Nature of the loss to the displaced worker Firm / job specific capital j p p • Seniority wages • Employment protection • Skills • Match specific capital – a career even • … and also psychological and health loss in the very short term. 10/10
Nature of the loss to the displaced worker Firm / job specific capital j p p • Seniority wages • Employment protection • Skills • Match specific capital – a career even • … and also psychological and health loss in the very short term. • Opportunity of the period of notice • Matching, counselling, career guidance g g g 11/10
Annual earnings of young men displaced from Uddevalla Shipyard 2005, with extraordinary policy measures compared to other plant closure job losers (1982 compared to other plant closure job losers (1982 – 2000) 2000) Source: Ohlsson and Storrie (2012) 12/10
Percentage change in highest education level 1983 to 2000 for the cases and the controls (plant closures) 2000 for the cases and the controls (plant closures) Source: Ohlsson and Storrie (2012) 13/10
14/10 Thank you for your attention! y y
Job finding rates Job finding rates Sex Cohabitation status Male 25.3% Couple 27.0% F Female l 26.8% 26 8% Si Single l 23 1% 23.1% Age Lone Parent 19 - 24 years 13.5% Not lone parent 26.3% 25 - 34 years 29.7% Lone parent 22.6% 35 35 - 44 years 44 years 27 8% 27.8% Highest le el of ed cation attained Highest level of education attained 45 - 54 years 29.0% Below Upper Secondary 21.3% 55 - 64 years 19.9% Upper Secondary + PSNT 26.8% Foreign background Tertiary 36.5% Foreign background Foreign background 26 4% 26.4% Professional status Professional status Local born nationals 26.0% Professionals 38.0% White collar 32.0% Minority status not minority 26.8% Skilled blue collar 21.3% minority status minority status 22 1% 22.1% Unskilled blue collar Unskilled blue collar 15 9% 15.9% Health Tenure with last / current employer No chronic health issues 26.7% 0-1 yrs 24.1% Chronic health issues 22.4% 2 years 26.8% 3 years 3 years 26.3% 26 3% Children in the household Children in the household No children 23.9% 4 years 19.3% Children 28.4% 5+ years 26.6% 15/10
Multivariate analysis of probability Multivariate analysis of probability of job loss and finding new job of job loss and finding new job of job loss and finding new job of job loss and finding new job Probability of .. JOB LOSS NEW JOB + Older Old Middl Middle aged + d Age + Foreign Foreign background + Minority - Minority Minority status + Bad health - Bad health Health + Low education - Low education Highest level of education attained + Unskilled blue collar - Unskilled blue collar Professional status - Long tenure - Long tenure Tenure with last / current employer 16/10
d Announced job loss in Europe since 2008 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Announced job losses A d j b l A Announced job gains d j b i Source: European Restructuring Monitor: Eurofound 17/10
Slide 17 dst6 UPDATE Donald Storrie, 13-Feb-2013
No major increase in temporary jobs in Europe since 2001 in Europe since 2001 EU ‐ 27: levels of employment and unemployment (Y) EU 27: levels of employment and unemployment (Y) Thousands Permanent Temporary employment Unemployment sands 194.0 30.0 Thou 192.0 25.0 m e nt and ploym e nt 190.0 188.0 20.0 nt 186 0 186.0 rm ane nt e m p rary e m ploym une m ploym e 184.0 15.0 182.0 10.0 180.0 Pe r Te m por u 178.0 5.0 176.0 174.0 0.0 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 Source: EU:LFS 18/10
Employment growth in top wage jobs but with Employment growth in top wage jobs but with increasing tendency to polarisation increasing tendency to polarisation increasing tendency to polarisation increasing tendency to polarisation 1998-2007 2008-2010 WAGES Source: European Jobs Monitor 2013:Eurofound 19/10
Change in Economic sectors LOW TECH INDUSTRY CONSTRUCTION PRIMARY PRIMARY KNOWLEDGE SERVICES HIGH TECH INDUSTRY LOW KNOWLEDGE SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION EDUCATION HEALTH Source: European Jobs Monitor Report 2013:Eurofound 20/10
Variety of national patterns (2008q2-10q2) (2008q2-10q2) Downgrading Polarisation Upgrading Sverige 21/10
QUALITY QUALITY 22/10 Polarization only in terms of wages JOB Source: Eurofound WAGES EDUCATION YEARS YEARS
Job losers (all due to plant closure) vrs non-job losers (1987-88) 1983 - 2000 Marcus Eliason & Donald Storrie (2006) “Lasting or Latent Scars? “Swedish Evidence on the Long-Term Effects of Job Displacement” Journal of Labor Economics, 2006, vol. 24, no. 4 23/10
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