The launch will begin at 13:00 (BST) #GPI2020
omfif.org/gpi Download the digital copy and interactive databank now #GPI2020
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Welcome remarks: John Orchard Chief Executive Officer OMFIF #GPI2020
Keynote Address: Moderator Speaker Frank Scheidig Ludger Schuknecht Global Head of Senior Deputy Secretary-General, Fiscal Executive Banking Policy and International Financial DZ Bank and Monetary Policy OECD #GPI2020
Presentation of key findings: Danae Kyriakopoulou Chief Economist & Director, Research OMFIF #GPI2020
#GPI2020
Total global public assets rise across all institution types, by a joint $1.9tn Assets under management of GPI 750, by institution type, $tn 45 40 8.3 35 8.1 7.4 6.3 30 7.1 6.9 25 17.0 16.0 15.5 14.4 20 14.0 14.5 15 10 14.1 13.5 13.1 13.4 12.3 12.1 5 0 End-2014 End-2015 End-2016 End-2017 End-2018 End-2019 Central banks Pension funds Sovereign funds #GPI2020
European GPIs biggest winners, Chinese fund holdings fall Assets under management of GPI 750, by region, $tn 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Asia Pacific North America Europe Middle East Latin America Africa Caribbean End-2014 End-2015 End-2016 End-2017 End-2018 End-2019 #GPI2020
Five funds responsible for almost a third of total increase Increase in total assets, 2018-19, $bn and % of total GPIF, NBIM, CBR, ABP, and MRF, $571.3bn 30% 11-750, $965.4bn 52% Remaining Top 10 funds, $334.9bn 18% #GPI2020
Booming stock market and rising gold price contribute to increases Jan 2019=100 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 FTSE 100 Gold price ($/t oz) Source: Refinitiv Eikon, OMFIF analysis #GPI2020
But US bull market also takes global imbalances to new heights Net international investment positions, creditors vs debtors, % of global GDP 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Creditors Debtors #GPI2020
Gains most prominent for GPIs that have diversified into equities Comparison of asset composition of GPIs covered in allocation analysis, % of total portfolio 100 3.3 4.5 2.3 1.4 2.9 2.6 0.4 9.2 3.9 2.8 0.4 2.1 90 3.0 6.4 0.7 5.7 4.1 0.1 12.3 10.3 80 11.0 9.9 5.8 70 8.0 22.3 30.4 60 50 51.7 40 66.3 30 51.9 45.4 20 10 18.9 0 Allocation Central banks Sovereign funds Pension funds Government bonds Equities Corporate bonds Real assets** Gold Other ** Includes real estate, infrastructure and private equity #GPI2020
This has primarily been motivated by low yields on traditional assets ‘How has the low level of yields on traditional reserves assets in recent years affected your decision - making?’, % of responses We have maintained our traditional risk approach and have accepted a lower return We have tried to maintain the absolute level of return by increasing our risk budget/diversifying into higher yielding assets Our decision making has not been affected We have tried to maintain the absolute level of return by increasing the size of the reserves We have reduced our reserves as holding reserves is costly for us (ie. our reserves have negative carry) We have reduced our risk budget as risk is no longer properly compensated Others 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Pension funds Sovereign funds Central banks #GPI2020
But looking ahead, flight to safety is expected ‘In the next 12 - 24 months do you plan to increase, reduce or maintain your allocation?’, % of responses Equities Government bonds Corporate bonds Infrastructure Real estate Other Gold Cash 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Significantly increase Increase Stay the same Reduce Significantly reduce #GPI2020
Global economic uncertainty raises dollar popularity ‘In the next 12 - 24 months do you plan to increase, reduce or maintain your exposure?’, % of responses EUR USD CNY EMFX JPY CHF GBP 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Significantly increase Increase Stay the same Reduce Significantly reduce #GPI2020
Overall little appetite for digital currency baskets ‘Would you be open to using a sovereign digital basket of currencies/SDR in a greater share of your reserves?’, % of response s 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 88% 89% 50% 100% 40% 30% 20% 10% 13% 11% 0% Pension funds Central banks Sovereign funds Yes No #GPI2020
Weighting safety and risk (1): GPIs seek returns in technology investments ‘What has been the motivation behind any potential investments in the technology sector?’, % of responses High Returns Other Preparing for disruption risks Development mandate (e.g. support domestic innovation) Remaining competitive Following Leaders/trends 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% #GPI2020
Weighting safety and risk (2): GPIs seek to understand foreign markets Number of institutions with offices or representation, 2019 #GPI2020
GPIs rediscover public ethos (1): Focus on sustainability ‘How do you rank the following risks as material to your investment in the horizon of the next 10 years?’, % of responses Systemic environmental risks Financial risks Geopolitical risks Localised environmental risks Governance risks Social risks 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very Important Important Moderately Important Low Importance Not at all important #GPI2020
GPIs rediscover public ethos (2): Public engagement through art #GPI2020
GPIs rediscover public ethos (3): Supporting government pandemic responses Selected examples of sovereign fund responses to the Covid-19 crisis 1. Government drawing on sovereign fund reserves to finance Covid-19 response or sovereign fund buying local currency to support its value and provide funds to government: Azerbaijan, Chile, Nigeria, Norway 2. Central bank transferring funds to sovereign fund to enable flexible investments: Saudi Arabia 3. Sovereign funds directly supporting struggling industries, e.g. airlines: Singapore, Malaysia, United Arab Emirates, Turkey 4. Sovereign funds issuing bonds to fight the pandemic: Italy, France 5. Creation of special pandemic-focused vehicles and funds: US, Ireland 6. Donations/investments in healthcare: Russia, Malaysia #GPI2020
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Keynote Address: Speaker Anshula Kant Managing Director and CFO The World Bank Group #GPI2020
Panel discussion: Speakers Sevinc Acar Christopher Smart Luigi Federico Martin Wieland Investment Director Chief Global Strategist and Head Signorini Head of Market PGGM Barings Investment Institute Deputy Governor Intelligence Division Banca d'Italia Bundesbank Moderator First Respondent David Marsh Didier Borowski Chairman Head of Global Views OMFIF Amundi #GPI2020
Closing remarks: Frances Barney Managing Director and Head of Global Risk Solutions BNY Mellon #GPI2020
Thank you for joining. To download the report please visit omfif.org/gpi2020 #GPI2020
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