Governance and growth: rebuilding the original modern city John Holden Deputy Director, Research
TODAY • Global and national context • Manchester’s growth story • What role governance in growth? • Conclusions
1. CONTEXT
GLOBAL CONTEXT
NATIONAL CONTEXT
SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM? • No recognition of place as an issue • Policy still places restrictions on urban economic growth • National policy disconnected and inefficient at the local level • Failure to recognise differential opportunities (outside London) • Research base is not strong enough to convince civil servants or politicians that an alternative approach is more efficient
2. MANCHESTER’S GROWTH STORY
MANCHESTER’S RECESSIONS 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Manufacturing Private Sector Public Sector/Other = recession
THE UK’S LONG TAIL GM IN THE UK: GVA & GROWTH 2011 £140,000 £120,000 £432 bn UK GVA Growth 2001 - 2011 £100,000 £80,000 London:26% GVA (£/m) GM South £32.5bn Largest absolute growth GM:3% Growth of £9.5bn of NUTS3 areas outside Next 5 largest 2% UK GVA Growth London & South East cities: 7% 2001-2011 £60,000 GM North £15.7bn £40,000 Growth of £3.8bn 1% UK GVA Growth 2001-2011 £20,000 £0
A SECOND GROWTH POLE? Source: Yale University Geocon Project
MANCHESTER IN 2013 “Outside London, MCR is the city region which, given its scale and potential for improving productivity, is best placed to take advantage of the benefits of agglomeration and increase its growth” – MIER
BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN SOURCE: DWP, 2013 START OF AUGUST 1999 RECESSION NOVEMBER 2012 25+ LONE PARENTS: 41,050 25+ LONE PARENTS: 18,300 25+ ESA/IB: 158,080 25+ ESA/IB: 135,140 25+ JOBSEEKERS: 58,760 25+ JOBSEEKERS: 39,490 U25 LONE PARENTS: U25 LONE PARENTS: 9,690 11,670 U25 ESA/IB: 8,650 U25 ESA/IB: 10,080 U25 JOBSEEKERS: U25 JOBSEEKERS: 15,940 21,810
3. GOVERNANCE AND GROWTH
MONOCENTRIC AND UNDER-BOUNDED
HISTORY OF COLLABORATION Manchester Prosperity City Deal for Business All: The Community Leadership Greater Budget Pilot Council Manchester Established Strategy GMS refresh From 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1986 Publication of the MIER GM LEP Formation of AGMA
TRACK RECORD OF DELIVERY
4. CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS (1) • Agglomeration is key to growth; unevenness is inevitable • Anti-urban policy is probably inefficient to a point which strains any equity argument • Institutions matter as much as the policies they implement • Much policy needs critical evaluation - much of it doesn't work
CONCLUSIONS (2) • Manchester has potential to be a complementary growth hub to London. To achieve this we need: • A reappraisal of traditional urban policy. Linking areas of growth and deprivation • Deeper and narrower devolution by government • A more balanced physical and human capital approach by local and national policy makers • Better evidence of the impact this can have
Any questions? Contact: mike.emmerich@neweconomymanchester.com john.holden@neweconomymanchester.com t: 0161 237 4127 w: neweconomymanchester.com @neweconomymcr
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