quo vadis ? – a good question Ron Sandrey, tralac Associate “Global Trade Policy and Geopolitical developments - Trumponomics and beyond”
AGOA and the US • Th This is is is a non-recip iprocal l agreement offered to Afr fric ica with ith terms and conditions set by US ‘Conditionality’ • Does it it reall lly amount to much? • Most t im imports are fu fuel l rela lated which ich are duty-fr free anyway. It It boils ils down to vehic icle les fr from So South Afr fric ica and clo loth thin ing fr from a few countrie ies. .
US Imports from Africa • Combined two-way goods trade in in 2015 was valu lued at $36 billi illion (evenly split lit) • Exp xports to US main inly fuel l – therefore ir irrele levant • Clo lothin ing most crucia ial exp xports, , tarif iff concessions and and ROO better
South Africa • So South Afr fric ica – autos versu sus chick ickens. So South Afr fric ica shouldn’t be protecting its chicken sector anyway (It It has to im import rt so soy beans to feed th them, and chick ickens are only ly so soya beans with ith leg legs) s) • 2015 - 78.5 .5% of US S im imports under AGOA from So South th US (10 th Afr fric ica were autos. . (1 S im importer). ). Th They are vu vuln lnerable le from Trump supporters in the “Rust Belt” • Agric ricult ltural l access provi vides li limit ited benefi fit to So South th Afr fric ica
Vulnerability In In essence, US hold lds all ll the cards and can use the ‘Out of cycle’ review as their tru rump card Wil ill the US lo look at EPAs and see the EU getting tari riff concessions in into Afr frica and want the same? Under Tru rump, , YES
Other Issues • 2016 kill illed the TPP agreement • What does this is mean for Afric ica? • Not much dir irectly (perhaps some relie lief for clo lothing exp xporters to US) • But it it stall lls in international progress • How will ill this is im impact on Afric ican in integration?
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