Global burden of cancer between 1990 and 2010 Preliminary results - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global burden of cancer between 1990 and 2010 Preliminary results from a systematic analysis and estimation of burden of cancer for all countries August 28, 2012 UICC Congress Mohsen Naghavi, MD, MPH, PhD Associate Professor

Cancer site data by country (or subnational) year (all ages, both sexes) Source'type' Site'year' Vital&registra+on&& 66,635&(death)& Cancer&registry& 65,904&(incidence)&& Surveillance& 252&(death)& Verbal&autopsy& 413(death)& 2

Methods • We estimated the incidence and mortality for 27 cancer sites • The sum of these 27 cancer sites is our estimate for all cancers (C00-C97 excluding C44 and C46) • We used a uniform method for all countries and each cancer • Five steps were applied for each cancer site to estimate the incidence and mortality for each country, age group, sex, and year 3

Analytic strategy (breast cancer example) Cancer incidence Mortality/ incidence Cancer mortality data ratio (registry) data (registry) (death registration, etc.) Estimate mortality Estimate MI ratio of Data obtained for Data obtained for 76 countries for all country-years each cancer 96 countries Cause specific death data The model (for breast for all country- for cancer): 145 countries years Estimate • Linear prediction with The model: covariates of: incidence • Income per capita • Random effect for all • Education logit model with • Alcohol consumption country-years covariate of: • Spatial temporal • Income per smoothing • GPR (Gaussian process capita regression) analysis • Ensemble model

Age-standardized mortality rate for all cancers (per 100,000 population) 5

Fraction of cancer mortality by site and region, 2010 6

Age-standardized Years of Life Lost due to premature death (YLL) per capita (all ages) by cancer and region, 2010 7

Standardized incidence rate for all cancers (per 100,000 population) 8

Age-standardized Years Lost due to Disability (YLD) by cancer and region, 2010 9

Age-standardized Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) by cancers and region, 2010 10

Fraction of cancer DALYs of total DALYs (1990-2010) Asia Pacific, High Income 20% 12% YLL Daly YLD Europe, Western 10.8% 9.7% Australasia 10% Asia, East 7.8% 15% 7.6% 8% 7.2% Europe, Central % from total Cancer DALYs from total DALY % 6.0% 6% North America, High Income Latin America, Southern 4% 10% Europe, Eastern 2% Latin America, Tropical 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% Latin America, Central 0% 1990 2005 2010 North Africa / Middle East Year 5% Asia, South Year Sub-Saharan Africa, East Sub-Saharan Africa, Central 0% 1990 2005 2010 11

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