Geothermal Efforts in Groningen Rien Herber Alex Daniilidis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Geothermal Efforts in Groningen Rien Herber Alex Daniilidis ESRIG Symposium, 27 march 2018

Location of Groningen Geothermal Concession

Geothermal Project Warmtestad 10000 households (15% low temperature)

Groningen Geothermal Exploration Licence Daniilidis, 2015

Energy Academy (projected from south, not to scale) W E doublet 15˚C 0 - Seismic Cross Section 1 km - Zernike 50˚C Campus 2 km - 100˚C 3 km - 5 km

The Reservoir Source: SPB Atlas, 2011

Desert Deposits Well sorted and rounded sand grains

Rotliegend Sandstone A. In core B. Under the microscope

Groningen Geothermal Project Geological model in Petrel 300m Daniilidis, 2015

Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions Pressure levels Gas saturation

Groningen Gas Reservoir – Pressure Behaviour pressure (bar) Production (billion m 3 ) Bron: NAM, 2012

Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions Pressure levels Gas saturation Geological parameters Layer permeability, porosity, Net-to-Gross Fault permeability

Reservoir Quality Determined by: Porosity Ø (%) & Permeability k (mD) GOOD BAD Porous and permeable rock Pores filled with minerals 50 μm

Critical Model Parameters Initial reservoir conditions Pressure levels Gas saturation Defined by location Geological parameters Layer permeability, porosity, Net-to-Gross Fault permeability Operational parameters Flow rate Defined by operator Injection temperature

Workflow: Dealing with Uncertainties 21 scenarios x 216 scenarios = 4536 simulations

Groningen Doublet – Temperature/Time Distributions Input: 4536 simulation scenarios Source: Daniilidis, 2016

Seasonal Heat Demand and Load Factor

Input Data: Equipment/Installations Fixed Values Probability Distributions Heat Network Length ESP cost Heat Network Unit Cost Heat Exchanger cost Gas Separation unit cost Producer well contingency Injector well contingency Production well cost POS injection well Injection well cost POS production well Drilling insurance cost Drilling location cost Well Abandonment cost Duration of dev’t phase

Input Data: Production Parameters Probability Distributions Fixed Value Injection temperature Production Temperature Reservoir Permeability Gas Saturation Pressure Depletion Gas Production Doublet Temperature Loss Desired Capacity Transmission Efficiency Pump Efficiency Pump failure Rate

Input Data: Economic Parameters Fixed Values Probability Distributions Inflation Rate Mean Gas Heat Price Interest Rate Mean Natural Gas Producer Price Discount Rate Mean Electricity Price Depreciation Rate Ratio Geothermal to Gas Price Amount of Subsidy Annual OpEx Consumer Connection Fee Consumer Annual Usage Fee

Cumulative Discounted Cashflow (20.000 Monte Carlo Simulations) 100% Mln € 90% 75% mean 25% Payback Time 23-27 Years

Expected Monetary Value EMV = POS x NPV success – (1 – POS) x Cost of Failure POS inj.well = 70% POS prod.well = 90% POS overall = 63% From the NPV frequency distribution, construct an expectation curve: NPV success Cost of Failure EMV P10 141 50 70 P50 33 55 0 P90 5 61 -20 Monetary values in mln €

Energy Academy (not to scale) W E doublet 0 - Seismic Cross Section 1 km - Zernike Campus 2 km - Groningen Gas Field 3 km - 5 km

Geothermal Location in proximity to Groningen Gasfield