Online Session FOCRAII 2020 7 th May 2020 Forecast for 2020 Southwest monsoon Rainfall and Temperatures over south Asia D. S. Pai and O. P. Sreejith Regional Climate Centre, Pune
Latest Global SST Departures ( o C) and ENSO Conditions over Pacific Data source The latest weekly SST CPC, USA departures are: Niño 4 0.4ºC 0.4ºC Niño 3.4 Niño 3 0.4ºC Niño 1+2 0.1ºC Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-above average across the Pacific Ocean
SST Forecast MMCFS (Apr IC) 7-May-20
ENSO Forecast - MMCFS: Apr IC Probability of Nino 3.4 PDF Corrected Model Forecast – Apr IC Plume of Nino 3.4 PDF Corrected Model Forecast – Apr IC MMCFS forecast indicates cooling of SSTs in coming season and enhanced probability for development of La Niña conditions later part of the monsoon season or thereafter. 7-May-20
Indian Ocean Dipole: MMCFS April IC Neutral IOD conditions are observed over Indian Ocean and the latest MMCFS forecast indicates negative IOD conditions are likely to develop during monsoon season . .
Rainfall Forecast JJAS 2020 JJA 2020 JAS 2020 7-May-20
Temperature Forecast JJAS 2020 JJA 2020 JAS 2020 7-May-20
South West Monsoon Rainfall forecast for South Asia 7-May-20
Consensus forecast of 2020 SW Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia (issued 22 April 2020) Summary : Normal rainfall is most likely during the 2020 southwest monsoon season (June – September) as a whole over most parts of South Asia. Geographically, above-normal rainfall is most likely over the southern part and some areas of northwestern parts of the region. However, below-normal rainfall is most likely over land areas around north Bay of Bengal and northern most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas.
Verification of 2019 Consensus Forecast Observed RF JJAS 2019 Forecast JJAS 2019 7-May-20
Thank you 7-May-20
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