Fenny Kusumawardani (Urban and Regional Planning) Rudiansyah SN (Environmental Science) Supervisor: Eveline Buter (Witteveen+Bos Indonesia) Arno Kops (Witteveen+Bos Netherlands) Hans Hasselt (Saxion University) Gerry Stegeman (Saxion University)
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Situation Review Banger Polder Project Objective & MRQ SCBA Feasibility study Methods of SCBA Result Sensitivity analysis Conclusion and recommendation Applicability of SCBA in Indonesia Methods Conclusion and recommendation
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Semarang Timur Flood Inundation
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia The projects are Strengthening eastern and northern dikes closing Kali Banger from the sea by building dam Kali Banger will be dredged deeper, Building pumping station Enlarging retention basin Optimizing and implementing channels and weirs.
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Cost for the construction, operation and maintenance are 76 billions Rupiah
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Objectives : 1. To give a Socio-Economic Cost and Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Project Polder in Semarang during 20 years lifetime, in order to know feasibility of the project. 2. To measure applicability of SCBA, by consulting stakeholders in Semarang, Indonesia and researchers experiences. MRQ: 1. How is the feasibility of Banger Project Polder using Socio-Economic Cost and Benefit Analysis? 2. Does the value show significant change in the result due to the use of those values? How much its sensitivity if the value is changed? 3. Will SCBA be applicable to use as an analysis tool in Indonesia?
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia “What SCBA is”: An analysis of the Cost Effectiveness of Different Alternatives in order to see whether the benefits outweigh the cost, SCBA will: Describe all (+) and (-) impacts of the project , also for those - which do not have PRICE in the MARKET And try to express it in MONETARY TERMS -
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia “What the advantages of SCBA are”: It will reflect the real value of a project to society Evaluating a project from the view point of the society Considering the sustainability for the inhabitants and environment States in money: the assessment become more visible Measuring the feasibility of the project for the inhabitants and environment Clear information of society’s welfare & risk from a project in order to make economic decisions of any kind
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Steps in SCBA in order to know the FEASIBILITY of the project
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Step 1-2: Describing the baseline as autonomous development and Banger Polder Project refer to it
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Step 3: Cost of the BPP (alternative) consist of: - Investment cost (once) - O & M cost (yearly)
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Step 4: Translating the physical impact into welfare impact
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Step 5: Formulating the way of calculation (formula) to quantify and monetize the impact result in money In this step, the (+) or (-) impact of the project is described
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Step 6: Timeline process, in order to know what going to happen in the next N years Present value Formula: PV= F / (1+r ) N After this step, the FEASIBILITY of a Banger polder project can be concluded
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia To measure the feasibility of Banger Project, a balancing between COST and BENEFIT is done From the table, it can be viewed that the project is FEASIBLE = (NPV > 0) = brings benefit to the inhabitants and entire Banger area. Per year, each household has € 510 of the benefit and € 760 for Banger area
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Step 7-8: Analyzing sensitivity of the result by the discount rate and the used data of some impacts calculation Sensitivity = the rank between autonomous development and the alternative does not change
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Conclusion: The calculation shows that the project brings benefit around € 760 per Household per year = NPV > 0 = the project is FEASIBLE And the result is not sensitive with the change of discount rate and the uncertain data, the project still brings benefit to the inhabitants Recommendation: Researcher should aware with the use of approach and assumption to calculate the impact Appropriate strategy should be properly constructed if a survey is planned
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Method Sources Criteria Result Reseacher’s experience by Accessibility of applying SCBA in Indonesia data Drs. PM. Broto Sunaryo, MSP Sufficient fund Interview Acceptable period of time SWOT Nik Sutiyani ST., MT. - Criteria Level of influence in decision making Ir. Rosid Hudoyo, M.T - Human resources.
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Accessibility of data Inconsistent data inventory Investor Investor Sufficient fund Limited information Bottom up system Training Loans Loans about financial data Limited time due to Acceptable period of time National economic Political issue Variations in raw data project schedule expert organization Economic Economic Population census Level of influence in decision making Central Statistic Bureau growth growth Human resources.
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Subject of SWOT analysis: Applicability of SCBA in Indonesia Strengths: Weakness: -Capable human resources - Insufficient fund -Time consuming - Inconsistent data - Inaccessible data Opportunity: Threats: - An organization that validates result of - Politicaleffect SCBA - Variety of income and public - Economic growth values. - Investor - Legalization
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia Conclusion Social-economical cost benefit analysis can be applied in Indonesia. Recommendation However, to be better applied, the outcome of this cost benefit analysis should be regulated and legalized during policy making steps. For further research is necessary to interview higher level of government in Indonesia. Since, not only having more proper answer but also introduce SCBA to them.
Socio-economic Cost Benefit Analysis (SCBA) of Banger Polder Semarang, Indonesia After legalization of SCBA several points should be considered by Indonesia governments, which are: 1. Policy about accessibility of data 2. An agency to evaluate the result of SCBA. Other stakeholder (university, researcher, private companies) who willing to have this analysis applies in Indonesia, can do this following step: 1. Making article about SCBA in press media 2. Giving lecture or presentation about SCBA to government
1. How is the feasibility of Banger Project Polder using Socio- Economic Cost and Benefit Analysis? 2. Does the value show significant change in the result due to the use of those values? How much its sensitivity if the value is changed? 3. Will SCBA be applicable to use as an analysis tool in Indonesia?
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