families in in NSW October 2019 1. Their futures matter investment - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Usin ing lin linked administrative data to im improve outcomes for vulnerable families in in NSW October 2019

1. Their futures matter investment model – An overview 2. Our approach 3. Key results 4. Next steps 5. Further information 2

Their futures matter investment model

Their futures matter investment model In Introduction  The Th Their ir Futu tures s Mat atter r Un Unit it is a New South Wales government agency set up to improve life outcomes for vulnerable children It was set up following a 2015 report into  foster care in NSW – the the Tune Rep eport 4

Their futures matter investment model The The Tune Rep eport foun ound  Despite increased government expenditure the number of children in foster care has doubled over the past 10 years  The system is failing to improve long-term outcomes and to arrest cycles of intergenerational abuse and neglect  While the current system responds to immediate crises it failed to do enough to in the area of prevention 5

Their futures matter investment model The investment model …  Helps TFM prio priorit itize in invest stments ts in in vu vuln lnerable chi child ldren and evaluate those investments  For orecasts ts lif ife path pathways and and out outcomes for all children in the state  Considers cr cross-agency out outcomes  Considers lon ong-term rm out outcomes 6

Our approach

Their futures matter investment model Ou Our ap approach Link inked cr cros oss-agency dataset to create  individual historical pathways Ana Analysis s of of patt patterns in in hist istorical l  path pathways – used machine learning but final implementation were generalised linear models for more control/explainability  Mic Micro-simulatio ion of of futu ture path pathways s – for a population of about 3m with 80+ component models 8

Data - historical pathways Which chi children and and young pe people ar are Wha hat age agencies co contributed pa path thway in information? inc included in in th the ana analysis?  NSW Department of Family and Community Services  Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research All individuals born in 1990 and later who live   NSW Department of Justice (or have lived) in NSW Legal Aid NSW   We also include information about those  NSW Police Force individual’s parents  NSW Ministry of Health  More than 3 3 millio illion individual pathways NSW Ambulance  were analysed  NSW Department of Education  NSW Education Standards Authority (NESA)  NSW Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages NSW Treasury  9

Data - historical pathways Services and events included in each individual’s pathway Chi hild protection Housing Ho Jus Justic e  Concern reports  Social housing tenancies  Custody  ROSH reports  Private rental assistance  Community supervision  SARA Homelessness services Court finalisations   OOHC episodes (own and next   Cautions generation)  Youth conferences  Number of placements in OOHC  Legal aid OOHC placement type   Primary issue given as reason for (concern report and SARA)  Restoration 10

Data - historical pathways Services and events included in each individual’s pathway (cont.) He Health Education Me Mental hea health  Public hospital admissions  NAPLAN year 3 results  Hospital admission for mental health  Private hospital admissions  NAPLAN year 7 results  Ambulatory mental health  Emergency department  HSC completion presentations Unexpected government   Ambulance patient contact events school moves  Child birth  RAM equity loadings Opiate treatment programme  11

Data - historical pathways Services and events included in each individual’s pathway (cont.) Alc lcohol and and ot other dr drugs Parental ris risk fac actors Com ommonwealth ser services  Hospital admission for AOD  Parent in custody  Welfare  Proven AOD offences  Parent interaction with justice  MBS  Proven AOD related offence or  PBS AOD hospital admission  Proven domestic violence related offence or victim of domestic violence  Treatment for mental health in hospital or ambulatory services 12

Modelling – analysing pathways  This allows us the understand Demographi hics pathway dyn path ynamics Par arenta tal risk isk (age, gender, factors fact Aboriginality, birth location)  Path athway dyn ynamics tell us how a persons characteristics and their Educ ucational l Perin erinatal l risk isk pathway up to a point in time attain att inment fact actors influence their likely future pathway Serv ervice Usa Usage Pat athway Men ental health h (what, when, and AOD an OD dyna namics how much?) ind ndicators 13

Projection – simulating pathways The models developed to describe  path pathway dyn ynamics are used to simulate future pathways for all children and young people aged under 25 in NSW.  There is uncertainty in what a person’s future pathways will look like – each simulation represents one possible future pathway.  By running many simulations we get an estimate of the distr distrib ibutio tion of of po possi sible out outcomes. 14

Key results

Their futures matter investment model Res esults overview There were children and young We’ve estimated their average future TFM’s Investment Model uses people born in NSW and aged human services cost (to age 40) to individual-level linked under 25 as at 30 June 2017 the NSW Government to be administrative data from most $143k government sectors to estimate 2.2 .2M future service usage and outcomes which adds up to for young people of NSW $332B 16

Their futures matter investment model Res esults overview For these young people, future 7% 7% of these 50 50% of the young people future cost human services costs to the NSW make up Government are highly concentrated 17

Their futures matter investment model 32% of the estimated 1% 1% of the study Res esults overview future cost for NSW population make up justice services Estimated future cost is particularly concentrated in some sectors 45% of the estimated future cost for 1% of children NSW child protection services for currently aged 5 and children currently aged 5 and under under make up 5% of females Almost 100% of the estimated make up future cost for next generation out- of-home care 18

Their futures matter investment model Res esults overview We used the modelling to define six vulnerable groups. These vulnerable groups were chosen:  To cover a wide range of vulnerability  Due to a forecast of high future cost  To focus on different life stages, because needs can vary significantly by life stage TFM are focusing on two of the vulnerable groups for state-wide systems and services responses 19

Vulnerable group – vulnerable young children Ho How man any ki kids ar are in in this this gr group? ? Wha hat is is th the average fut uture co cost of of Who’s in this group? th this gr group? ? At 160,403 kids, that’s about Children aged 5 or younger at 30 June On average, the future cost 2017 with one or more of the 1 in 4 NSW-born kids under 5 of these vulnerable young following: children is $250k  1 or more parental risk factor  2 or more perinatal risk factors  Assessment as ROSH+ 20

The vulnerable young children have poor outcomes Socia ial out utcom ome Vul Vulnerable yo young ung chi hildren Proportion expected to 12x 12x have an OOHC placement Proportion whose children 3. 3.9x expected to require OOHC Proportion expected to 2. 2.5x enter custody Proportion expected to use 2. 2.5x social housing as adults Proportion completed or expected to complete the 0.8x 0. HSC Proportion expected to be admitted to hospital for 1. 1.7x AOD Proportion expected to be 1. 1.4x supported by welfare 21

Their futures matter investment model Res esults overview For each vulnerable group we have identified risk indicators associated with these children having poor outcomes later in life. These risk indicators will allow TFM to better target the most vulnerable in each group. 22

Their futures matter investment model Il Illustrative vi visualisation This visualisation was used to illustrate one of the key  findings in relation to the intergenerational transmission of vulnerability  Link to animation 23

Next steps

Their futures matter investment model Ne Next steps  Use insights and projections of the model to prioritize investments Use model to help evaluate the performance of  those investments Expand model – more risk indicators and services  covered 25

Further information

Their futures matter investment model Fur urther in information  A publicly available report based on the Investment Model Pr Press ar articles  ‘Ground - breaking’ report: social services overhaul  Billions spent ‘investing in the wrong stuff’, social services sector responds to report  Beyond the Folbigg tragedy: silent mental illness in parents the greatest risk for children 27