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FALAKI, Akindeji Ayobanji University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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FALAKI, Akindeji Ayobanji University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria National Orientation Agency , Abuja, Nigeria UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change and Development Policy, Helsinki, Finland. 28-29 September, 2012 Local Perceptions of Climate

  1. FALAKI, Akindeji Ayobanji University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria National Orientation Agency , Abuja, Nigeria UNU-WIDER Conference on Climate Change and Development Policy, Helsinki, Finland. 28-29 September, 2012

  2. Local Perceptions of Climate Change The gods Must Be Crazy

  3. Introduction  The warming of the climate system is un unequi quivocal… , glo loball lly and the impact is felt the most lo locall lly  Various sectors of the Nigerian economy are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.  Human settlements and health  Water resources, wetlands and freshwater ecosystems  Energy, industry, commerce and financial services  Coastal zone and marine ecosystems  Agriculture, food security, land degradation, forestry and biodiversity

  4. Introduction Cont’d…  The negative impacts of climate change on agriculture are direct and enormous.  Increased risk of hunger and malnutrition  Decline in rain-fed agricultural yield  Crop failure and food shortage  Increase in the price of basic food staples  Shift in crops cultivated

  5. Adaptation and Development  The goals of Adaptation and Development are complementary  Climate change threatens and undermines development  Adaptation can help reduce these threats and impacts  Ability to adapt depends on the state of development (underdevelopment constrains adaptive capacity)

  6. Climate Change and the MDGs  MDGs measures progress towards sustainable development  Climate change slows the progress towards sustainable development  Directly through increased exposure to adverse impacts  Indirectly through erosion of the capacity to adapt  Most sustainable development plans do not explicitly include climate change awareness, impact evaluation, adaptation and mitigation practices (only in September 2012 was a climate change policy enacted

  7. Climate Change and the MDGs  Impact of climate change on development in Nigeria is not evenly distributed  Severe inequalities in wealth (e.g. between the North and South)  Regional-based impact (different MDGs goals affected to different extent across Nigeria)  Uneven level of preparedness

  8. The SLISSFAN Project  The Strengthening the Livelihoods of Small Scale Farmers in Nigeria (SLISSFAN) project co-financed by OXFAM GB and the European Commission.  OXFAM GB is a development, relief and campaigning organisation that work with others to find lasting solutions to poverty and suffering around the world.  The SLISSFAN project has the specific objective of improving the livelihoods of 6,000 poor rural households in small communities in the Middle Belt of Nigeria. The project ran between 2008 and 2011

  9. The SLISSFAN Project cont…  Two interventions emphasised:  (i) the formation and strengthening of self-managed, business- oriented, small scale farmer marketing associations, and  (ii) Village Savings and Loans groups (VSL)  SLISSFAN project has no climate change component  Reports from farmers engaged in the project and partner organisations working with OXFAM in these communities indicate that climate change is impacting negatively on the farming operations and livelihood of the small scale farmers they are working with thereby creating challenges not planned.  This threatening scenario (could) apply to other agricultural development projects. How then can climate change be addressed within the context of sustainable development programmes?

  10. Objectives of the Study The specific objectives are to;  Define the context in which the farmers carry out their livelihoods activities  Examine 30 years temperature and rainfall trends  Ascertain farmers’ perception of (causes) climate change  Investigate farmers’ adaptation practices in response to climate change  Identify constraints impeding adaptation to climate change

  11. Map of the Study Area: Middle-Belt Nigeria

  12. SLISSFAN Communities No. of Farm State Local Government Communities No. of Households Communities Plateau Kawel, Mbar, Makada, Wumat, Maihakoringol, Bokkos Folloh, Fagin, Foffai, Bokkos and Kunet 2400 20 Mangu Kerang, Ampang West, Panyam, Bwonpe, Kopal, Gohotkung, Konbring, Kinat, Tyop and Chanso Guma Agasha Vandeikya Mbaduku, Mbayongo Benue Buruku Tyowanye 5 1600 Gboko Utabar Nasarawa Obi Ikposogye, Musha, Tudu Adabu Lafia Kirayi, Assakio, Rafin kudi 9 2000 Nasarawa Eggon Ahenta, Ogbagi, Gbamze West 3 9 34 6000

  13. Sample Size and Sampling Technique  A multistage sampling technique comprising three (3) stages  For the first stage, purposive sampling was used to select sample units which are aged forty (40) years and above.  For the second stage, purposive sampling was used to select sample units which have lived in the local government for the last twenty (30) years.  At the third stage, simple random sampling was used to select respondents for the study.  Sample size was 411 ( Plateau = 162, Nasarawa = 138 and Benue = 111)

  14. Data Analysis Tools  Statistical (quantitative) analysis involve:  Basic descriptive statistics (frequency counts, percentages, means…)  Kruskal-Wallis One Way ANOVA Comparisms (Ranking)  Principal Component Analysis  Regression analysis used to determine trends in temperature and rainfall

  15. Summary of Findings: Contextual Situation  More Females: 51.3%  Average Age: 52 years  Low Literacy: 39.7% with no formal education; 29.7% with basic primary education  Large HH Size: Average 11  No of Related Family in the Village (Social Network): 28; 50 in Benue, 19 in Nasarawa

  16. Contextual Situation  Average Residence Age: 31 years  Residence type: 83.4% live in mud houses with thatch or zinc roof  Commonest HH Appliances: Radio (77.6%), Motor Cycle (55%), Mobile Phone (30.6%)  Public erratic electricity supply: 8.3%  Petrol powered Private electricity generator: 23.1%  Bank savings: 15.1%

  17. Contextual Situation  Main energy source: Fuel wood (95.4%)  Main water sources: dug well (56.2%) and rivers/streams (43.6%)  Water treatment: None (29.4%), Filter or Allow to settle (55.8%)  Toilet Facility: Nearby bush or behind house (60.1%), Pit Latrine (34.8%)

  19. Contextual Situation  High Disease Burden:  Feverish Illness – 83.4%  Cough – 44.5%  Diarrhoea – 24.8%  HIV/AIDS – 4.5% (in Benue)  Ave. Distance to Closest Clinic: 4.1km  90.3% of HH has had at least a member visit clinic within a year  Distance, Poor facility and inadequate skilled health workers means many people resort to self medication, traditional healers, etc…

  20. Contextual Situation  Ave farming experience: 33 years  Mixed farming (goats, poultry, pigs, maize, yam, cassava)  Main farm implement is cutlass and hoe (96.6%)  Guaranteed at least 2 meals a day: 96.6%  Dry season farming (Benue: 15.5%, Nasarawa: 5.8%, Plateau: 87.7) Total Ave = 40.9%

  21. Contextual Situation  Ave. Distance to Market: 8.6km  Transport means to market: Motor cycle/bicycle (79.6%) Walking (29.4%)  Bad road network

  22. Contextual Situation  Access to Extension Agents (2011): 59.4%; Benue – 85.5%, Nasarawa – 44.9%, Plateau – 54%  Ave no of visits by Extension Agent (2011): Benue – 5, Nasarawa – 3, Plateau - 3  Access to Information on Expected Rainfall / Temperature(2011): 48.8%; Benue – 71.3%, Nasarawa – 37.1%, Plateau – 33%  NGOs are the main extension service providers (57.4%)  Co-farmers, radio and farmers’ association are leading sources of agric information

  23. Contextual Situation  Access to agric. credit low (46.9%)  Leading Sources of agric. credit: Adashi , Relatives, NGOs, Neighbours, Farm Association  Main Use of credit: buy farm inputs, children’s education, start non-farm business  Reasons for not obtaining credit: None, inadequate information, high interest, no collateral, past credit

  26. Distribution Of Respondents According to Perception of Air Temperature Benue Nassarawa Plateau 2% 4% 2% 3% 1% 12% 6% 20% 38% 57% 82% 73% Pooled 2% 4% 22% Increased 72% Decreased Stayed Same Don’t Know

  27. Distribution Of Respondents According to Perception Of Rainfall Amount Benue Nassarawa Plateau 7% 4% 5% 3% 1% 5% 43% 16% 41% 45% 75% 55% Pooled 4% 4% Increased 51% 41% Decreased Stayed Same Don’t Know

  28. Distribution Of Respondents According to Perception Of Rainfall Pattern Rainfall Pattern Benue Nassarawa Plateau Pooled Unpredictable % % % % No 14.5 16.6 17.2 16.3 Yes 85.5 83.4 82.8 83.7 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

  29. Trend of Minimum Temperature for Makurdi: 1980 - 2009 Analysis of Minimum Temperature Data for Makurdi: 1980 – 2009 Temperature Values 2% 3% Mean ( 0 C) 22.5 38% Standard deviation ( 0 C) 0.22 57% y 0 =22.5 + 0.003x Trend ( 0 C/year) 0.003 Total Change from Trend ( 0 C/30years)* 0.10

  30. Trend of Maximum Temperature for Makurdi: 1980 - 2009 Analysis of Maximum Temperature Data for Makurdi: 1980 – 2009 Temperature V alues Mean ( 0 C) 33.4 0.33 Standard deviation ( 0 C) y 0 = 33.4 + 0.016x Trend ( 0 C/year) 0.016 Total C hange from T rend ( 0 C/30years) * 0.49

  31. Trend of Minimum Temperature for Jos: 1980 - 2009 Temperature Values Mean ( 0 C) 15.7 Standard deviation ( 0 C) 0.35 y 0 = 15.7 + 0.02x Trend ( 0 C/year) 0.02 Total Change from Trend ( 0 C/30years)* 0.58

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